根据淮北涡河流域的特点,本文以小麦—玉米一年两熟制建立光合作用、温度、水分和土壤条件对自然生产潜力影响的动态分室模型,再用阶乘模型将它们综合为农业自然生产潜力模型,并将模型计算值与实际生产情况对比分析。模型的输出结果综合反映了该区自然资源对农业生产的影响。由模型分析出影响本区农业自然生产力的当前限制因子是土壤养分,长远限制因子是土壤有机质和水分,为分阶段区域治理提供了依据。在土壤完全改良后,淮北平原的农业生产可跃上年平均亩产900kg的新水平。

Based on the wheat-maize rotation system, compartment models of the effects of natural factors on plant growth and crop production are established. Then they are combined to form a natural productive potential model of agricultue. The output of the model shows that the potential crop yield in this region will be 14.12 tons/ha if soil conditions are improved. The present limitation of crop production is soil nutrients. The long-run limiting factors will be soil organic matter content and water supply. The problems related to soil and water resources in the region should be tackled in a comprehensive way and by stages.