
中间投入对农户耕地利用绿色转型的影响——基于“U”型关系的诊断分析
The effect of intermediate input on the green transition of cultivated land use: A diagnostic analysis based on the U-shaped relationship
耕地利用绿色转型(GTCLU)是全球气候变化背景下构建水土协调的耕地保护新格局的重要途径,对保障农产品质量安全和促进农业绿色发展具有重要意义。基于沈阳市农户调查,探讨耕地利用绿色转型内涵,测算农户尺度GTCLU,理论解析并实证检验中间投入如何影响其转型水平。研究发现:(1)耕地利用绿色转型建立了“水—地—粮—碳”复合映射关系,具有资源节约高效、产地环境良好、产品质量安全、生态环境友好等特征。(2)样本农户GTCLU集中于“转型类型Ⅲ”,处于转型类型Ⅳ的规模户多于小农户。家庭人均收入和非农收入占比越高,农户GTCLU水平就越低;农村数字化水平越高,农户GTCLU水平就越高。(3)中间投入与农户GTCLU存在倒“U”型关系,当中间投入强度超过0.375时则对农户GTCLU水平产生抑制效应。(4)社会规范对中间投入与农户GTCLU的倒“U”型关系产生正向调节作用,随着社会规范约束增强,倒“U”型曲线更加陡峭且拐点左移;环境规制影响倒“U”型关系存在经营规模异质性,不影响规模户而对小农户产生显著作用。应进一步优化中间投入结构,增强社会规范软约束机制,充分发挥环境规制工具组合力,合理推动农户耕地利用绿色转型。
The green transition of cultivated land Use (GTCLU) is of great significance for building a new pattern of cultivated protection with coordinated development of water and soil resources under the background of global climate change, ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural products, and promoting green agricultural development. Based on field surveys of farmers in Shenyang, this study explores the conceptual connotation of GTCLU and estimate its level at the farmer household scale, and theoretically analyzes and empirically tests whether and how intermediate inputs affected the GTCLU. The results indicate that: (1) The GTCLU has established a composite mapping relationship of ''water, land, food, and carbon'', which has the development characteristics of resource conservation and efficiency, good production environment, product quality and safety, and ecological environment friendliness. (2) The GTCLU level of sample farmers is observed in the transition type III, and compared to small farmers, the proportion of large-scale households in transition type IV is relatively large. The higher the proportion of per capita household income and non-agricultural income, the lower the GTCLU level of farmers. With the improvement of rural digitalization level, the GTCLU level of farmers is gradually increasing. (3) There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between intermediate input and farmers' GTCLU level, that is, when the intensity of intermediate input exceeds 0.375, it will have a suppressive effect on farmers' GTCLU level. (4) Social norms have a positive moderating effect on the inverted U-shaped relationship between intermediate inputs and farmers' GTCLU levels. As social norm constraints continue to strengthen, the inverted U-shaped curve becomes steeper and the inflection point shifts to the left. The impact of environmental regulations on the inverted U-shaped relationship exhibits heterogeneity in business scale, meaning it does not affect large-scale households but has a significant effect on small-scale farmers. Therefore, it is necessary to further optimize the structure of intermediate inputs, enhance the soft constraint mechanism of social norms, fully utilize the combination of environmental regulatory tools, and promote the green transition of cultivated land use at the farmer household scale in a scientific and reasonable manner.
耕地保护 / 绿色转型 / 农户尺度 / 中间投入 / 倒“U”型关系 / 调节效应 {{custom_keyword}} /
cultivated land protection / green transition / farmer household scale / intermediate inputs / inverted U-shaped relationship / adjustment effect {{custom_keyword}} /
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Based on 526 survey data of farming households in Qufu and Juxian county, this paper comprehensively evaluates the sustainable intensification level of farming households' cultivated land use by carbon footprint and emergy analysis methods. Based on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of cultivated land renting-in affecting SICLU, we use the mediated effect model to test the mediated role of management scale and fragmentation of cultivated land. The results show that: (1) The SICLU level of cultivated land transferred to farming households is higher, producing better economic and social benefits, but its ecological efficiency needs to be improved. The economic benefit, ecological benefit, social benefit and the level of SICLU are 0.115, 0.067 and 0.081; 0.623, 0.630 and 0.628; 0.045, 0.043 and 0.044; 0.261, 0.247 and 0.251 for renting-in farming households, non-renting-in farming households and the whole sample, respectively. (2) Baseline regression shows that cultivated land renting-in has a significant positive effect on SICLU, which is still valid after a series of robustness tests. The average years of education and the ratio of family dependency are important factors affecting SICLU. (3) The mediated effect model shows that cultivated land renting-in has a significant positive effect on the management scale and the average land size. The cultivated land management scale whose mediating effect is 0.019 shows a significant positive and complete mediating effect, and the average land size shows a significant positive and partial mediating effect, whose mediating effect accounts for 43.021% of the total effect. All the mediating effects above pass the robustness test. (4) The results of farming households heterogeneity test show that cultivated land renting-in has a significant positive effect on the SICLU of farming households in the "high family dependency ratio" and "participating in agricultural insurance" group, but has no significant effect on the SICLU of farming households in the "low family dependency ratio" group and "not participating in agricultural insurance" group. The conclusion of this study is helpful to understand the impact of cultivated land renting-in on the SICLU and its mechanism, and has guiding significance for promoting the transformation of cultivated land use. {{custom_citation.content}}
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方恺. 足迹家族: 概念、类型、理论框架与整合模式. 生态学报, 2015, 35(6): 1647-1659.
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靳亚亚, 柳乾坤, 李陈. 基于改进三维生态足迹模型的耕地承载力评价: 以江苏省为例. 中国土地科学, 2020, 34(9): 96-104.
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赵先贵, 马彩虹, 赵晶, 等. 足迹家族的改进及其在新疆生态文明建设评价中的应用. 地理研究, 2016, 35(12): 2384-2394.
为了更好地评价和推进生态文明建设,改进足迹家族并构建生态文明建设评价指标体系,以新疆为例进行试评估。结果表明:1990-2013年新疆的生态文明建设属中等水平。其中,生态压力一直处于低水平;温室气体由低排放升为高排放;水资源从中等压力升至高压力;社会发展由低水平上升至中等。空间上,2013年克孜勒苏州、阿勒泰地区、巴音郭楞州和伊犁直属县市的生态文明建设水平高,博尔塔拉州、塔城、喀什、和田及阿克苏等地区为中等水平,乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、吐鲁番地区、哈密地区和昌吉州的水平低。研究表明,制约新疆生态 文明建设的主要因子是温室气体排放高和水资源压力大,节能减排和节水是今后需要努力的方向。
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[40] |
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Human mobilization and use of reactive nitrogen (Nr) has been one of the major aspects of global change over the past century. Nowhere has that change been more dramatic than in China, where annual net Nr creation increased from 9.2 to 56 Tg from 1910 to 2010. Since 1956, anthropogenic Nr creation exceeded natural Nr creation, contributing over 80% of total Nr until 2010. There is great interest and uncertainty in the fate and effects of this Nr in China. Here, a comprehensive inventory of Nr in China shows that Nr (including recycled Nr) has continuously and increasingly accumulated on land (from 17 to 45 Tg), accompanied by increasing transfers to the atmosphere (before deposition; from 7.6 to 20 Tg), inland waters (from 2.7 to 9.6 Tg), and coastal waters (from 4.5 to 7.7 Tg) over the past 30 y. If current trends continue, Nr creation from human activities will increase to 63 Tg by 2050, raising concerns about deleterious environmental consequences for land, air, and water at regional and global scales. Tremendous amounts of Nr have accumulated in plants, soils, and waters in China over the past 30 y, but the retention capacity of the terrestrial landscape seems to be declining. There is a possibility that the negative environmental effects of excessive Nr may accelerate in coming decades, increasing the urgency to alter the trajectory of increasing Nr imbalance. Here, a conceptual framework of the relationships between human drivers and Nr cycling in China is oriented and well-targeted to Chinese abatement strategies for Nr environmental impact.
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李书田, 金继运. 中国不同区域农田养分输入、输出与平衡. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44(20): 4207-4229.
弄清中国不同区域农田养分投入、产出和平衡状况,对养分资源管理和肥料的科学分配与施用,提高肥料利用效率等具有重要意义。在参考现有资料的基础上,系统分析和论述了中国的养分资源及其利用现状,估算了各种有机肥资源及其可提供的氮磷钾养分数量,分析和评价了中国不同区域养分输入、输出特点及平衡状况。针对目前养分输入、输出存在的一系列问题,提出了养分资源管理的对策和建议。
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[45] |
Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient for living systems with emerging sustainability challenges related to supply uncertainty and aquatic eutrophication. However, its long-term temporal dynamics and subsequent effects on freshwater ecosystems are still unclear. Here, we quantify the P pathways across China over the past four centuries with a life cycle process-balanced model and evaluate the concomitant potential for eutrophication with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes in 2012. We find that P cycling in China has been artificially intensified during this period to sustain the increasing population and its demand for animal protein-based diets, with continuous accumulations in inland waters and lands. In the past decade, China's international trade of P involves net exports of P chemicals and net imports of downstream crops, specifically soybeans from the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. The contribution of crop products to per capita food P demand, namely, the P directly consumed by humans, declined from over 98% before the 1950s to 76% in 2012, even though there was little change in per capita food P demand. Anthropogenic P losses to freshwater and their eutrophication potential clustered in wealthy coastal regions with dense populations. We estimate that Chinese P reserve depletion could be postponed for over 20 y by more efficient life cycle P management. Our results highlight the importance of closing the P cycle to achieve the cobenefits of P resource conservation and eutrophication mitigation in the world's most rapidly developing economy.
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刘某承, 李文华, 谢高地. 基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算. 生态学杂志, 2010, 29(3): 592-597.
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刘某承, 李文华. 基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9): 1550-1559.
生态足迹作为一种非货币化的生态系统评估工具,是近年来国际上一种重要的判别可持续发展程度的生物物理量方法。均衡因子是生态足迹计算中的一个重要参数,它将6种生物生产性土地类型的面积转换为具有相同生物生产力的面积,从而实现了6种类型土地面积的加和,因此,均衡因子是否准确直接影响到计算结果的可靠性与可比性。随着生态足迹方法的广泛应用,其标准化和本地化研究成为迫切的需要。本文采用中国2001年1km MODIS数据,根据植被的净初级生产力,对中国的平均均衡因子进行了测算:耕地和建筑用地为1.71,林地和能源用地为1.41,草地为0.44,水域为0.35,并与国际通用的均衡因子进行了对比。
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谢光辉, 王晓玉, 韩东倩, 等. 中国非禾谷类大田作物收获指数和秸秆系数. 中国农业大学学报, 2011, 16(1): 9-17.
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Achieving sustainable global food security is one of humanity's contemporary challenges. Here we present an analysis identifying key "global leverage points" that offer the best opportunities to improve both global food security and environmental sustainability. We find that a relatively small set of places and actions could provide enough new calories to meet the basic needs for more than 3 billion people, address many environmental impacts with global consequences, and focus food waste reduction on the commodities with the greatest impact on food security. These leverage points in the global food system can help guide how nongovernmental organizations, foundations, governments, citizens' groups, and businesses prioritize actions. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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陈舜, 逯非, 王效科. 中国氮磷钾肥制造温室气体排放系数的估算. 生态学报, 2015, 35(19): 6371-6383.
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朱永昶, 李玉娥, 姜德锋, 等. 基于生命周期评估的冬小麦—夏玉米种植系统碳足迹核算: 以山东省高密地区为例. 农业资源与环境学报, 2017, 34(5): 473-482.
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伍芬琳, 李琳, 张海林, 等. 保护性耕作对农田生态系统净碳释放量的影响. 生态学杂志, 2007, 26(12): 2035-2039.
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闵继胜, 胡浩. 中国农业生产温室气体排放量的测算. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(7): 21-27.
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