Winter injury is one of the main meteorological disasters that affect apple’s growing distribution and quality. Existing research mainly studies the injuries caused by extremely low temperatures during deep dormancy of apples, mostly using the mean temperature of the coldest month, the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures as indicators to assess the risk and divide the boundaries of apple’s distribution. However, cold resistance of fruit trees is different during different dormant phases, and is closely related with the cold-resistance exercises in fall. The probabilistic forecasting models of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury are established with the binary Logistic regression, on basis of the data of 2 084 meteorological stations and the winter injuries happened during 1981-2010. The space is divided into five risk’s degrees as very low, low, moderate, high and very high. The classification standard of the probability of winter injury was referred from the classification criteria in the IPCC report. The results show that: the probabilistic forecasting models of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury passed the Hosmer-Losmer test, and the prediction accuracies of independent samples reached 83.6% and 91.4% respectively. Early winter injury depends mainly on time of the first frost day and the time interval between the first frost day and the first day that the lowest temperature is lower than -15 ℃. The extreme winter cold injury is affected by the average temperature of the coldest month and the cold accumulated temperature when the daily minimum temperature is lower than -20 ℃. The freezing injury caused by short-term extreme low temperature is of small occurrence probability and limited influence scope. The extreme low-temperature injury in winter is mainly caused by continuous intimidation of strong and low temperature. Early winter injury is the main freezing injury in apple-producing regions of China, which happens in most apple-producing regions except the ancient Yellow River region and Yunnan producing region. But extreme winter cold injuries mainly happen in high latitude or high altitude regions, including the northern Bohai Gulf, the northwest of the Loess Plateau and Northern Xinjiang. High risk areas of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury are almost equal. Gansu is the province that has the largest area of risks with moderate degree and above, followed by Liaoning, Hebei and Shanxi. On the other hand, there are low risks of winter injury, especially for extreme winter cold injury, in Shaanxi and Shandong where there are the largest planting areas of apple.
We have to take consideration of spatial transfer in responsibility division and pollution control of regional carbon emissions to develop a fair and workable scheme for emission reduction and governance. There are different industrial structures and consumption patterns among different regions in China, and there are frequent regional trade, so the embodied carbon emissions and pollution emissions in trade need to be estimated. Using multi regional input-output model, we calculated carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in Jiangsu Province from the perspective of producers and consumers, respectively. In the view of producer, Jiangsu’s carbon emissions and SO2 emissions are 101.07 Mt C and 1.155 0 million tons, respectively. From the view of consumers, the carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in Jiangsu are 118.94 Mt C and 1.245 5 million tons, respectively. The results showed that Jiangsu is a net carbon emission and net SO2 absorption area, that the net carbon emission is 17.87 Mt C and the net SO2 absorption is 90 500 tons. The embodied carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in each sector are estimated as well. The sources in the top four sectors of embodied carbon emissions and SO2 emissions and the sources of carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in the final demands are analyzed. The embodied carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical industry, electric power and heat production and supply industry and construction industry occupy more than half of Jiangsu’s total embodied carbon emissions and SO2 emissions. The embodied carbon emissions and SO2 emissions in metal smelting and rolling processing industry mostly come from Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and Gansu. The embodied carbon emissions of chemical industry are mainly from Liaoning, Xinjiang and Shanxi, the embodied SO2 emissions come from Henan, Shanxi, Liaoning, Xinjiang. In electric power and heat production and supply industry, the embodied carbon emissions of electric power and heat production and supply industry are mainly from Anhui, Shanxi, Liaoning and Henan, and the embodied SO2 emissions mostly come from Henan, Shanxi and Liaoning. In construction industry, the embodied carbon emissions are mainly from Hebei, Henan and Anhui, and the embodied SO2 emissions mostly come from Henan, Shandong and Hebei. Jiangsu faces great pressure of industrial structure adjustment in the future.
