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• 2016 Volume 31 Issue 9
  Published: 20 September 2016

    

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  Resource Utilization and Management
  Resource Ecology
  Resource Evaluation
  Resource Research Method
  

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Resource Utilization and Management
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  Resource Utilization and Management

  Strategies of Conservation and Development of Agroforestry Ecosystem in Northwest China

  TANG Fu-kai, QI Dan-hui, LU Qi, YANG Wen-bin, ZHOU Jin-xing

  2016, 31(9): 1429-1439. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151313

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  History of several thousand years of human civilization is based on agriculture, and agricultural production provides spiritual and material basis for the development of human society. Agroforestry is a complex production system of forestry combined with agriculture or livestock organically, which is the essence of ecological agriculture reflecting the combination of mankind and forest. Agroforestry is a labor-intensive operation model to take fully advan-tage of natural forces, and characterized as systematic, complex, intensive and efficient. It not only creates wealth for human society, but also keeps biological and environment in a healthy eco-system. The fragile ecosystem, as well as the frequent occurrence of drought, soil erosion and sand disasters in Northwest China has seriously affected the development of social economy. Developing agroforestry is a new pattern of forestry development, and it is also an effective way to solve the vicious circle between ecological environment and backward social economy. The agroforestry systems in Northwest arid China were divided into four type regions including steppe, desert-oasis, Loess Plateau and Tibetan Plateau according to the natural conditions, socio-economic status, development situations of agroforestry systems and the needs of scientific research, production practice and rural economics. The characteristics of agroforestry systems including location and natural features, agroforestry features and typical types were analyzed. Additionally, considering the multi-level, multi-component, multi-purpose and multi-objective characteristics of agroforestry, we proposed a method to classify agrofore-stry based on forest origin, biological components, growth cycle and dominant function. Finally, the countermeasures for the issues existing in designing and planning, theoretical research and application and promotion of agroforestry management were presented, so as to afford references for the conservation and development of agroforestry in Northwest China.
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  Resource Utilization and Management

  Evaluation of the High-speed Rail New Town Based on Coordination of Urban Spatial Expansion and Population Growth

  XIAO Chi-wei, LIU Ying, LI Peng, JIANG Lu-guang

  2016, 31(9): 1440-1451. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151208

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  With the statistics of urban demographics and land area of 49 cities (including parent cities and new towns) along four major High-speed Rail (HSR) arteries in China, the urban land expansion and population growth and their coordination relations were examined based on the modified coordination model and urban spatial configuration compactness index. Then, a positive suitability analysis of urban planning and construction was made for four typical cities at varied sizes along the Shanghai-Kunming line in Jiangxi Province. The results showed that: 1) The coordination between urban land expansion and population growth was weak. Most cities were dominated by land expansion, accounting for about 65.31%, their urban population and built-up area accounting for 55.01% and 58.13%. There were 13 cities coordinated in man-land relations, their total population and urban built-up being 39.75% and 33.57%, respectively. 2) Positive analysis indicated that there were three primary urban spatial configuration combinations of parent city and new town, namely enclave-oriented, subsidiary-center-oriented and dual-core oriented. This study manifested that the impacts on the man-land relationship under new development mode of different urban spatial configuration of the HSR-related cities could be different. Misdealing of the spatial external and internal configurations and population growth and land expansion relationship could result in unreasonable urban planning and construction, hence falling into a vicious loop showing land resource waste and blind expansion.
Resource Ecology
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  Resource Ecology

  Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis of the Footprints Family in Mainland China

  FAN Sheng-yue, MA Liang-liang

  2016, 31(9): 1452-1462. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151232

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  This article selected the data of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption in China during 1987-2013 to calculate the land footprint, carbon footprint and water footprint of the footprints family using the Input-output Method, and then integrated the footprints by the Vertical and Horizontal Deviation Maximization Method, and analyzed Environmental Kuznets Curve of the footprints synthesis index and the indicators of footprints family. The results showed that the footprints synthesis index changed from 2.274 2 in 1987 to 3.816 9 in 2013, which had the tendency of ascending. The footprints synthesis index had gental curve relationship with per capita GDP, showing the increasing of the ecological occupancy and the less sustainability of resource utilization. The Environmental Kuznets Curve of land, carbon and water footprints were respectively in ∽-curve, coordinated growth curve, and flat curve, which shows the entering to transition period of urbanization, the rising period of carbon emissions and the non-sustainability of water resources in China. The selection of indicators has impact on the shape of the Kuznets Curve.
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  Resource Ecology

  Bibliometric Analysis on Research Progress of Four Footprint Methodologies in China

  SUN Yan-zhi, SHEN Lei

  2016, 31(9): 1463-1473. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151196

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  The world has experienced rapid economical development and social progress, which led to the increasingly profound impact of human activities on sustainable development of ecological environment. Quantifying the impact is crucial to solve the ecological and environment problems during sustainable development. Footprint methodology is a quantitative analysis method including ecological footprint, water footprint, carbon footprint and energy footprint. It will lay the foundation for solving the problems of ecological environment. In this paper, basing on the bibliometrics analysis, we analyzed the research contents of four kinds of footprint methodologies published in CNKI during 2000-2015. Results showed that: 1) The idea of ecological footprint is the earliest in China, emerging in 2000, with 162 papers annually. It led to the production of water footprint and carbon footprint to a certain extent. Now the three methodologies all have been developed maturely, and the energy footprint has gradually become a new breakthrough in finding the balance between the economy development and ecological environment. 2) The research contents of four kinds of footprint contain the conception, method, assessment and application. The application indexes of ecological footprint and carbon footprint are higher than their theoretical indexes, indicating that ecological footprint and carbon footprint have more practical values. While the theoretical indexes of water footprint and energy footprint are higher than their application indexes. 3) There are some similarities among four types of footprints, and it will be of great significance to establish the comprehensive footprint theory to estimate sustainable development.
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  Resource Ecology

  Valuation of Water Ecosystem Services in Shenzhen City

  LIANG Hong, PAN Xiao-feng, YU Xin-fan, XU Wang, CHEN Hui-ming, LI Xiao-ke

  2016, 31(9): 1474-1487. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151107

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  In order to promote the scientific use and management of urban water resources, this study estimated the economic value of water ecosystem service of Shenzhen City with integrated method of economics and ecology and analyzed the impact of water ecosystem on urban development from the perspective of product providing, regulating, culture and support. The results showed that the total value of water ecosystem services of Shenzhen was 864.51×10⁸ yuan, in which regulating was the most valued water ecosystem service function, accounting for 69.84%. The value of providing, supporting, and cultural function accounted for 6.48%, 7.68% and 15.99%, respectively. The great regulating function owed to abundant rainfall and good flood control facilities. The value of air purification service in regulating function could be neglected. The value of providing function was the lowest, indicating the scarcity of water resources in Shenzhen. The study suggested that urban water ecosystem evaluation system should be established for each administrative region for the purpose of carrying out long term observation and evaluation of water ecosystem service functions, evaluating the actual changes of water ecosystem service with time, and engaging the value of water service function in the actual changes of ecological environment factors.
Resource Evaluation
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  Resource Evaluation

  Spatial-temporal Variation of Aridity Index during 1961-2014 in China

  WANG Li-ping, WEN Ming, SONG Jin-xi, DOU Xin-yi

  2016, 31(9): 1488-1498. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160107

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  Aridity index (AI) is a typically reliable indicator of the wet and dry degree in a region, which is widely used in geography and ecology research, and is often involved in global change research. In this study, based on the data from 530 meteorological stations during 1961-2014 in China, potential evapotranspiration was derived using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith formula, then AI was calculated using potential evapotranspiration and precipitation and analyzed with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, abrupt change test and wavelet analysis. The conclusions were obtained as follows: 1) The AI in China generally shows a significant decreasing trend during 1961-2014 with significant spatial differences. This holds true for the northwestern region and Tibetan region. A weak decreasing trend of AI is shown in the southern region, while a non-significant increasing trend of AI is shown in the northern region. An abrupt change of AI in China occurred in 1986 according to the MK abrupt change test. 2) According to wavelet analysis, there is a primary 28-year period of AI in China and in the northern and northwestern regions, 29-year period in the southern region and 26-year period in the Tibetan region; meanwhile, there are different secondary periods in different regions. 3) Potential evapotranspiration and precipitation are two major factors influencing the spatial and temporal variation of AI. The decreasing trends of AI in China and in the northwestern and southern region were caused by the decrease of potential evapotranspiration and the increase of precipitation, while the decrease of potential evapotranspiration and precipitation resulted in the non-significant increasing trend of AI in the northern region, and the weak increase of potential evapotranspiration and the significant increase of precipitation resulted in the significant decreasing trend of AI in the Tibetan region. 4) The spatial distribution of AI in China shows obviously opposite pattern with precipitation, with larger AI in the northwestern region and smaller AI in the southeastern region. AI in the northern region is relatively smaller, except in its middle area where a relative larger AI is presented due to the relative smaller precipitation and larger evaporation. AI in the southern region is the lowest in China due to the great amount of precipitation, while AI in the northwestern region is the largest in China due to the small amount of precipitation and strong evaporation. Due to the highest elevation in the Tibetan region and a relatively high quantity of precipitation in its eastern area, AI in the Tibetan region gradually increases from the east to west.
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  Resource Evaluation

  Nonstationarity of Flooding Processes in the Tarim River Basin and Climate-related Impacts

  GU Xi-hui, ZHANG Qiang, KONG Dong-dong, LIU Jian-yu

  2016, 31(9): 1499-1513. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151164

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  Aggravation of flood has been observed in Xinjiang, China. However, no reports are available addressing changing properties and related mechanisms. In this paper, flooding frequency in the Tarim River Basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, was analyzed by using the Kernel smoothing technique and bootstrap resampling method. Besides, the flood frequency and extreme precipitation events were analyzed by using the POT method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were conducted by using GAMLSS (Generalized Addi-tive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model the flood frequency and its relations with explanatory variables (e.g. time, climate index, precipitation and temperature). The results indicated that: 1) The flood occurrence in the Tarim River Basin clustered in two periods, i.e. ~1960s and ~1990s with around 2-3 fluctuations. 2) The change of flood frequency is nonstationary process. Persistent increase of flood frequency can be observed since 1990s and the flood frequency gradually reached its peak value, implying evident aggravation of floods in terms of magnitude and frequency. 3) Winter AMO and AO are the principle influencing factors of the change of flood frequency, while winter NAO and SOI are two critical climate indices influencing flood frequency in the Tarim River Basin. The results of this study can provide great scientific and theoretical support for the management of floods and mitigation of flood hazards.
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  Resource Evaluation

  Quantitative Study on Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Aerosol Optical Depth and Its Driving Forces in Sichuan Province during 2000-2014

  ZHANG Jing-yi, LU Xiao-ning, HONG Jia, MENG Cheng-zhen

  2016, 31(9): 1514-1525. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151088

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  The paper studied the trend of temporal and spatial changes of aerosol optical depth from 2000 to 2014 in Sichuan Province, and quantitatively analyzed the driving forces of the evolution of the aerosol optical depth in Sichuan Province on regional scale by combining natural and artificial factors, and further analyzed the spatial differentiation of driving forces on pixel scale. From this research, we concluded that: 1) The aerosol optical depth at the central Sichuan Province is the biggest and its growth trend is the most obvious, and the value in the parallel ridge valley of eastern Sichuan is smaller and shows a mild decrease trend, while the values in western Sichuan Plateau and southwestern mountainous area are the smallest and have mild growing trends. 2) On the regional scale, we quantitatively studied the dominant driving forces of aerosol optical depth, and established the multivariate regression model of the aerosol optical depth with relation to GNP, precipitation and normalized vegetation index: AOD=0.849+0.567×GNP-0.909×precipitation-0.077×NDVI. The model reflected the quantitative effects of driving forces on the regional level. 3) On the pixel scale, the aerosol optical depth of Sichuan Basin has been mainly affected by human and earth surface factors, and the aerosol optical depth in eastern parallel valley area, western Sichuan Plateau and southwestern mountainous area has been mainly affected by the earth surface and meteorology factors. Because of the cloudy weathers in fall and winter in Sichuan-Chongqing region, there is less effective aerosol satellite observation data, so acquiring the aerosol optical thickness data in fall and winter should be strengthened, the anthropogenic factors should be divided more specifically, and high-precision interpolation method should be used to improve the accuracy of the driving factors data. These are the directions which can improve the accuracy of quantitative research of the driving force.
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  Resource Evaluation

  The Impacts of Farmer Households' Livelihood Endowment on Farmland Transfer: Cases in Different Types of Functional Areas of Hubei Province

  ZHU Lan-lan, CAI Yin-ying

  2016, 31(9): 1526-1539. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151093

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  In this paper 964 interviewees of 57 villages from 6 towns selected respectively from major development region, major producing area of agricultural products and ecological function zone in Wuhan City and Jingmen City of Hubei Province were taken as empirical study. We constructed index system of household livelihood endowments and explored the impacts of livelihood endowments on land transfer with logit model. The results were as follows: Firstly, the proportion of farmers who have participated in land transfer (48.38%) and are ten-ding to be involved in land transfer in future (61.99%) are relative high in major development region where the procedures of land transfer are more normative. Though the land transfer rate in major agricultural production regions is relatively high, the farmers in these areas have low willingness of participating in future land transfer due to their high dependency on farmland. Because of the low resources and environment carrying capacity and poor condition of agricultural production, the land transfer rate in ecological function area is comparatively low. Nevertheless, as a result of low income of agricultural production and high return of non-agricultural productions, the farmers in ecological function area have considerably high willingness of participating in future land transfer. Secondly, natural assets and physical assets have greater influence on farmers' farmland transfer behavior. Households with larger area of contracted land have relative higher probability to transfer out farmland. Meanwhile, households who manage larger area of cultivated land and possess more productive tools have greater probability to transfer in farmland. Thirdly, since human assets, natural assets, physical assets, financial assets and social assets may cause different survival risks after farmland transfer, they have significantly effects on farmers' willingness of transferring farmland. Farmers' willingness of transferring in farmland is positively affected by households' whole labor capacity, area of contracted land, area of operating land, conditions of farming, number of productive tools, number of consumer goods and social expenditures. Moreover, the increase of area of contracted land and the improvement of farmland' condition, such as the traffic condition and landscape of farmland, both can strengthen farmers' willingness to transfer out farmland.
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  Resource Evaluation

  The Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Adaptation Behavior to Seasonal Drought in Southern Rice GrowingArea and Its Influencing Factors

  ZHU Hong-gen, KANG Lan-yuan, ZHOU Shu-dong

  2016, 31(9): 1540-1552. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151046

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  The impact of climate change on food production in China has become the focus of public attention. Affected by global warming, wide range of continuous drought has become the most serious threat to agricultural production. In recent years, seasonal drought in the southern China became more and more serious, which has seriously harmed the development of the society and economy in our country. Therefore, how to adapt to seasonal drought has become a common concerned topic of the whole society. As the subject of micro decision-making in agricultural production sector, farmers play an important role in choosing adaptive behaviors to seasonal drought, so study on farmers' behaviors and their influence factors is the precondition and foundation to scientifically reduce the disaster. Based on the survey data of 755 households in 41 counties of Jiangxi Province, we analyzed farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and the influencing factors from theoretical and empirical perspectives of view. The statistical results show that 68.6% of the farmers will take corresponding behaviors when facing the seasonal drought, that replanting (seedling), switching to other crops, and adjusting the sowing and harvest dates are the most preferred adaptive measures of farmers, while the capital and labor force are the most important limiting factors for farmers to choose adaptive measures. By using Probit regression model, Poisson regression model and Tobit regression model, this paper empirically analyzed the impact factors of farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and their relations with the scale and intensity of the behaviors. The results show that social capital, drought occurrence frequency, and the availability of disaster prevention information have positive effects on framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors, while the distance to the nearest highway has negatively effect on the framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors.
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  Resource Evaluation

  Carbon Density and Storage of Forest Ecosystem in Altay Mountains, Xinjiang

  ZHENG Shuan-li, XU Wen-qiang, YANG Liao, GAO Ya-qi, LI Jian-jun, WANG Lei

  2016, 31(9): 1553-1563. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151167

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  To provide more accurate basic data for scientific assessments on the carbon sink function of forest in Xinjiang, this paper studied the carbon storage and density of forest ecosystem in Altay Mountains and their distribution pattern based on field investigation and forest resources inventory. The results showed that: The biomass of forest ecosystem was 126.67 t·hm^-2, and the biomass of each component was in the order as arbor layer (120.84 t·hm^-2), grass layer (4.22 t·hm^-2) and litter fall layer (1.61 t·hm^-2). The biomass in trunk, root, leaf and branche of arbor accounted for 50%, 22%, 16% and 12% of the total, respectively. The vegetation biomass had significant relation with the age of the forest, and increased with the increase of forest age. The carbon content ranged from 0.40 to 0.53, which also had significant relation with forest age. The carbon density and storage of the forest ecosystem were 205.72 t·hm^-2 and 131.35 Tg. The carbon storages of soil layer, arbor layer, grass layer and litter fall layer were 86.67, 43.09, 1.03 and 0.56 Tg, respectively. Soil layer and arbor layer were the main carbon sink of Altai forest ecosystem, which accounted for 66% and 33% of the total, respectively. From the age groups point of view, the highest carbon storage was in mature forest, and the storage in over-mature forest took the second place which accounted for 61% of total carbon. The carbon density of the forest ecosystems was higher in southern area than in northern area due to the environmental factors.
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  Resource Evaluation

  Stability Characteristics of Soil Water-stable Aggregates under Different Land-use Patterns on the Loess Plateau

  LIU Meng-yun, WU Jian-li, LIU Li-wen, YU Ya-nan

  2016, 31(9): 1564-1576. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20150974

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  The stabilities of soil aggregates of different land-use patterns in the Loess Plateau were studied, and the distributions of water-stable aggregates were obtained by fractionating the aggregates with a wet-sieving procedure. Geometric mean diameter (GMD), mean weight diameter (MWD), fractal dimension (D), destruction rate (PAD), peak convex coefficient (C_E) and bias coefficient (C_S) were used to analyze and compare soil aggregates stability (>0.25 mm). The study aimed to explore the stability of soil aggregates under different land use patterns, obtain the best indexes to represent soil aggregates stability and reveal the influences of land use transformation on soil structure. The content of soil water-stable aggregates, GMD and MWD under different land use patterns were all in the same order as farmland < arbor-shrub mixed forestland < arbor forestland < natural grassland < shrub forestland. Forest and grass were conducive to form larger-particle aggregates, in which the weight of soil aggregates with 1-5 mm particles accounted for 53.90%-80.20% of the weight of soil aggregates with particles greater than 0.25 mm and this structure was obviously inhomogeneous in forestland (especially shrub forestland) and grassland. For farmland, the weight of soil aggregates with 0.25-1 mm particles accounted for 81% of the weight of soil aggregates with particles greater than 0.25 mm and the structure was homogeneous. The size of dominant particles in the aggregation gradually became smaller from top layer to deep layer in soil profiles of forestland and grassland so that the differences of structure became less. This trend was sharp in arbor forestland, but it was slow in shrub forestland and natural grassland. There were significant positive correlation among GMD, MWD, C_E and C_S, while these indexes had negative correlation with D and PAD. The aggregate stability features in the whole profile could be described felicitously by GMD and C_S, while the soil at 0-20 cm depth could be described by PAD properly.
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  Resource Evaluation

  Transferable Water of Longyangxia-Liujiaxia Reservoirs Taking into Account of Water Resources Allocation in the Future

  KAN Yan-bin, BAI Tao, WU Lian-zhou, JIN Wen-ting, CHANG Jian-xia, HUANG Qiang

  2016, 31(9): 1577-1586. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151026

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  Aiming at the deterioration of relation between water and sediment and aggravated contradiction between water supply and demand in the upper reach of Yellow River, according to the results of “Water Resource Allocation of the Yellow River Basin (2012-2030)”, the transferable water based on cascade reservoirs operation in the upper Yellow River were studied. Using Longyangxia and Liujiaxia as regulation, joint operation model of water and sediment regulation was established by considering water supply and ice and flood control in the whole basin. Then, 13 schemes were set in four scenarios and four modes, and the results were obtained by Self-Iteration Simulation and Optimization Algorithm (SSOA). Finally, the result in the mode of regulating power generation by water supply turned out to be the best. It showed that the transferable water will decrease and the water transfer projects almost have no effects on transferable water of cascade reservoirs with the increase of water demand in the future. The results provide an important reference for water and sediment regulation and technological support for planning and scheduling cascade reservoirs at the upper reach of Yellow River.
Resource Research Method
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  Resource Research Method

  Policy Effectiveness of Water Volume Control and Pricing Regulation in Water-intensive Industries in China: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

  SHI Jian, SHEN Da-jun

  2016, 31(9): 1587-1598. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151098

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  The paper researched the impacts of different water resources management policies in water-intensive industries on economy, society and water use in China, in order to provide a macro-policy analysis for decision-making. The water resources dynamic CGE model incor-porating water resources as element was developed and the recursive dynamic mechanism was introduced. After data-procession, SAM construction, and calibration, the model was used to simulate the impacts of different scenarios of water use control and water price increase in water-intensive industries from 2010 to 2020. The control over water use in water-intensive industries will significantly reduce GDP year-by-year, decrease consumer welfare and increase investment in the long term. Under the 30% decrease of sectoral water use scenario, there will be 14.48% decrease in GDP, 8.44% decrease in consumer welfare and 34.13% increase in investment in 2020. The outputs and consumptions will decrease in most sectors, but they will increase in less water-depending sectors, with changes between 3.90% - -22.28% in 2020, under the 30% decrease of water use scenario. The impact on export will be less than that on import. The water use control will have a little impact on total water use but it will have significant impact on water use efficiency. The annual total water use will reduce about 5×10⁸ m³ and water use per 10 000 yuan industrial value-added will decrease 26.8%-28.6% under the 30% decrease of water use scenario from 2010 to 2020. The water price increase in water-intensive industries will increase GDP year-by-year, but the increase is not significant. It will decrease consumer welfare and increase investment. Under the 30% increase of water price in water-intensive industries, there will be 1.36% increase in GDP, 3.50% decrease in welfare, and 12.17% increase in investment in 2020. The sectoral outputs will change significantly in 2020, ranging between -40.71%-19.45%. The consumption of each sector will greatly reduce except for the consumption of service sector. The imports and exports of each sector will change greatly too. The water price increase will significantly reduce water use in water-intensive industries and slightly increase water use in other sectors, and greatly improve water use efficiency. Under the 30% increase of water price scenario, the water uses in sectors of the water-intensive industries will reduce 0.5%-1.5%, and the water use in other sectors will increase less than 0.5%. The water use per 10 000 yuan industrial value-added will decrease 28.4%-30.7% under the 30% increase of water price scenario from 2010 to 2020.
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  Resource Research Method

  Mechanism and Evaluation Method of Water Resources Utilization System ulnerability

  PAN Zheng-wei, JIN Ju-liang, LIU Xiao-wei, ZHOU Rong-xing

  2016, 31(9): 1599-1609. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20151218

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  Water resources system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water issues in recent years. Hereinto, integrated vulnerability and vulnerabilities at different levels need to be further explored. Based on the analysis of the formation process of water resources utilization system vulnerability, the model of water resource utilization system vulnerability was built considering total water resources, development and utilization degree of water resources, water-use efficiency, etc. The goal was to further clarify the mechanism of water resources utilization system at different levels. When the contact component coefficient has the distribution characteristic of a wide peak, a bigger error of contact number based on triangular fuzzy number might be obtained. To solve this problem, the characteristics of the difference degree coefficient were further analyzed, and the trapezoidal fuzzy number of difference coefficients was constructed by using the standard threshold as parameters. The assessment model was established by using connection numbers of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The model was applied in vulnerability assessment of water resources system in Anhui Province. The results showed: the grade of water resources utilization system vulnerability in Anhui Province had a fluctuation between 3.611 and 2.493 from 2001 to 2014. Compared with the moderate vulnerability in 2001, the water resource utilization system vulnerability in 2014 was reduced significantly to a low level. This method avoids the errors when the value of the contact component coefficient has a wide peak, and can accurately reflect the objective reality of the water resource utilization system.