Table of Content

    20 May 2018, Volume 33 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Expert’s Forum
    Strategic Thinking on the Security of Natural Resources of China in the New Era
    SHEN Lei, ZHANG Hong-li, ZHONG Shuai, HU Shu-han
    2018, 33 (5):  721-734.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20180317
    Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (5462KB) ( )   Save
    When socialism with Chinese characteristics enters a new era, the economy has been in a critical period of transforming and upgrading, and there is the new missions and new requirements for natural resources security. The newly established Ministry of Natural Resources brings new opportunities for the comprehensive management of natural resources in the new era. The time scale of the new era is over 30 years, and the medium-to-long-term strategy should be made based on a systemic summary of the change of natural resources in the past few decades and a strategic estimation of resources supply and demand in the future. To sum up, the following conclusions can be made: 1) It could be sure that the demand for water resources in China will continue rising and the pressure on the grain supply of arable land will be increasing, which will directly affect the well-being of the people’s livelihood. 2) The growing demands for all types of minerals have changed to differentiated demands for different types of minerals, and the overall demand for mineral resources will remain high. 3) The pressure on the wood supply of forest resources, which affects the construction of the modern economic system, will be aggravated. It is critical to resources security of China that we believe “Green waters and clear mountains are invaluable assets” and persist in saving resources and protecting the environment under the guideline of “ecological civilization strategy”. To enhance the comprehensive security and sustainable development capacity of China’s resources for the two centenary goals, we put forward the following suggestions: 1) paying close attention to the research on resources strategy and the top level planning in the new era, 2) implementing the stringent regulations of resources management and environment protection, 3) optimizing the structure of resources supply to serve the modernization and the needs of the people’s livelihood and accelerating technological innovation to expand the transforming value of the resource industry chain, 4) improving the efficiency of resource utilizing and promoting circular utilization of resources based on domestic efforts, and at the same time strengthening the international cooperation in the field of resources.
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    Resource Ecology
    Appraisal on Ecological Services from Chinese Milk Vetch-Early Rice-Late Rice Cropping Ecosystem
    XIE Zhi-jian, HE Ya-qin, XU Chang-xu
    2018, 33 (5):  735-746.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170505
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    Cultivating winter green manure crops (e.g. Astragalus sinicus L., etc.) after the harvest of main crops (e.g. rice, etc.), which was the essence of traditional agriculture and has made important contribution to food security, is a very important strategy for optimizing the agricultural cropping structure in China. Evaluating the economic values on the main ecological services of Chinese milk vetch (CMV)-early rice-late rice cropping ecosystem will help people better understand the importance of CMV to modern ecological agriculture development and its direct contribution. Furthermore, it will be conducive to the development and promotion of planting winter green manure crops (e.g. CMV) and help governments making policies. In this study, based on the data of a continuous field location experiment from 2007 to 2015 and the agro-ecosystem service appraisal theories, the economic values of CMV-early rice-late rice rotation system in South China were evaluated by developing a systematic model with methods of eco-economics. This model mainly estimated the economic values by considering the influences of CMV on four ecological functions, i.e., agricultural product and industrial raw materials, atmospheric regulation and purification, water conservation, and soil nutrient accumulation. Results showed that the total economic values of ecological services in CMV-double rice rotation system (87 438.46 yuan/(hm2·a)) was 36.13% higher than that from fallow-double rice system (64 230.89 yuan/(hm2·a)). The economic values of agricultural product and industrial raw material in fallow- and CMV-double rice cropping ecosystems were 38 777.03 yuan/(hm2·a) and 56 635.83 yuan/(hm2·a), respectively, which accounted for 60.37% and 64.77% of the total values, followed by the economic values of atmospheric regulation and purification and water conservation (accounted for 15%-22%). The economic value of soil nutrient accumulation (accounted for less than 2%) was the least one in double-rice cropping system. The economic value of soil nutrient accumulation was mainly because of increasing economic values of the accumulative soil organic matter, available potassium and alkali-hydro nitrogen in CMV-double rice rotation system. Hence, the CMV-early rice-late rice rotation system has both economic values and ecological values. The results can provide theoretical basis for making ecological compensation policies of redeveloping and promoting winter green manure crops (e.g. CMV) in paddy fields of South China.
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    Public Preference Heterogeneity for Wetland Ecosystem Services Based on a Latent Class Model
    MAO Bi-qi, AO Chang-lin, NING Jia-jing, GAO Qin
    2018, 33 (5):  747-760.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170382
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    Recently, preference heterogeneity of the public has become an important indicator in the studies of ecosystem services valuation. This paper aims to assist policymakers in formulating efficient and sustainable management policies of wetland by investigating the public preferences for ecosystem services of Sanjiang Plain Wetland. A choice experiment (CE) is employed to elicit the ecological preferences and willingness to pay of the public, and a latent class model (LCM) is established to investigate heterogeneity of public preferences for wetland ecosystem services. The results reveal the heterogeneities in public preferences for diverse wetland ecosystem services in Sanjiang Plain Wetland. Respondents who prefer protecting resources account for the majority of the total population (68.78%), respondents who prefer protecting landscape are willing to pay more for the nature landscape, and price sensitive respondents have obvious lower willingness to pay than the other two groups of people. Through analysis of the latent classes, it is observed that the socio-economic and environmental awareness of the public has a significant effect on their preferences. Respondents with higher education prefer resource conservation, while respondents with higher incomes and those who have travelled more times to Sanjiang Plain Wetland prefer landscape protection. Also, the environmental awareness of the price-sensitive respondents is relatively low. This research offers a new approach to study public preferences for wetland ecosystem services, and the results provide a reference for relevant environmental policy formulation.
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    Grassland Adaptive Management in Arid Region Based on Livelihood Capitals of Peasants and Herdsmen—A Case Study of Fuyun County in the North of Junggar Basin, China
    SUN Te-sheng, HU Xiao-hui
    2018, 33 (5):  761-774.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170378
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    As the largest terrestrial ecosystem, the natural grassland occupies 41.7% of the land area in China. However, since the grassland degenerated in pastoral region and animal husbandry costs increased obviously, the livelihood of herdsmen was difficult. Grassland adaptive management is an important way to solve the problem concerning “pastoral region, animal husbandry and herdsmen” effectively. The objective of this study was to provide some strategies for grassland adaptive management in arid region. We used the system (stratified) sampling method and participatory rural appraisal (PRA) to investigate peasants and herdsmen in Fuyun County in the north of Junggar Basin, China, and designed the quantitative index system used for measuring their livelihood capitals. Using the quantitative index system and system coupling coordination model, we analyzed five livelihood capitals of peasants and herdsmen and their coupling coordination degree. Our analysis showed that grazing activities of peasants and herdsmen depended on natural grassland too much and were generally short of development oriented livelihoods. Therefore, the livelihood capitals of peasants and herdsmen were universally low (i.e. natural, human, physical, financial, and social capital was only 0.017 7, 0.109 9, 0.187 4, 0.040 1 and 0.184 5, respectively), the capacities of livelihood conversion were weak, and the vulnerability of livelihood was high. Moreover, the coupling coordination degree among five livelihood capitals of peasants and herdsmen was also low (0.277 4), which was mainly due to the high homogeneity of peasants and herdsmen, obvious attribute difference of the five livelihood capitals, and less of professional cooperative economic organizations. Therefore, it is important to promote livelihood diversification of herdsmen so as to reduce the grassland pressure caused by grazing, to transform the way of animal husbandry production so as to reduce the dependence on natural grassland, to develop grass industry in pastoral region so as to effectively promote the formation of resilience/elasticity of the coupling system between grassland animal husbandry ecology and human society. The results also suggest that it is very urgent to train herdsmen with the knowledge of science, technology, management, etc., to develop modern grass and animal husbandry, to construct good organizations of peasants and herdsmen, to strengthen grassland grazing management scientifically, so as to comprehensively improve the level of livelihood capitals of peasants and herdsmen and promote the development of animal husbandry production.
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    Resource Evaluation
    Spatial-temporal Change of Rural Settlements and Its Spatial Coupling Relationship with Water and Soil Resources Based on Grid in the Hexi Oasis
    MA Li-bang, TIAN Ya-ya, GUO Xiao-dong, CHEN Mei-mei, WANG Yong-li
    2018, 33 (5):  775-787.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170562
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    Water and soil resources are the most basic constituents of oasis. In fact, oasis can be simply defined as a place with water. The abundance of water resources determines the scale of irrigated land, which further affect the oasis’s carrying capacity for social economy. On the basis of 1 km×1 km grids, landscape index analysis, kernel density, dispersion degree, spatial coupling, etc., were used to analyze the temporal-spatial differentiation of landscape pattern of rural settlements in Shandan County in the Hexi Oasis. Further, the spatial coupling relationship between rural settlements and water and soil resources was studied. The results were as follows: 1) From 1998 to 2015, the total area of rural settlements in Shandan County expanded rapidly and the rural settlements tended to be more dispersed. The number and density of rural settlement plaques increased. The average area of rural settlement plaques decreased. Landscape indices of rural settlements changed more rapidly during 1998-2008 than during 2008-2015. In the second period, landscape indices tended to be stable. 2) The kernel density of rural settlements in 1998, 2008 and 2015 were basically consistent. Rural settlements accumulated along major roads and hydrographic network, and the kernel density of rural settlements decreased in the direction away from these roads and hydrographic network. In 1998, the intensive regions of rural settlements were relatively dispersed. The number of such regions was large but the area of each region was small. In 2008 and 2015, the intensive regions were more concentrated. The number of intensive regions decreased, but the area of each region increased. 3) From 1998 to 2008, the dispersion degree of rural settlements showed a rising trend. After 2008, the dispersion degree of rural settlements tended to be stable. In 1998, rural settlements in Shandan County were relatively concentrated, and there were 95.35% grids in which the dispersion degree of rural settlements was below 5.0. In 2008 and 2015, rural settlements tended to be more dispersed, and the proportion of grids in which the dispersion degree was above 6.0 increased to 27.68% and 29.30%, respectively. There were even grids in which the dispersion degree was above 21. The grids with dispersion degree above 21 accounted for 1.52% in 2008 and 1.59% in 2015. These led to the dispersion, emptiness and disorder of rural settlements in Shandan County. 4) The spatial distribution of rural settlements in Shandan County was closely related to the distributions of cultivated land and hydrographic network. Rural settlements distributed around cultivated land and along hydrographic network. In 1998, there was no human-land contradiction. In 2008, however, the human-land contradiction occurred. In 2015, the contradiction was alleviated and there was a harmonic relationship between human and land.
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    Identification of Polycentric Urban Structure of Central Chongqing Using Points of Interest Big Data
    DUAN Ya-ming, LIU Yong, LIU Xiu-hua, WANG Hong-lei
    2018, 33 (5):  788-800.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170945
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    Many Chinese cities have proposed the strategy of polycentric urban development in their master plans. There are still questions about polycentric urban development to be answered: does the evolution of polycentric urban form conform with the master plans? How to identify and measure the morphological and functional urban forms? Previous research has used traditional data to identify the polycentric form, such as population, land use and industry. Nowadays, the emergence of urban big data provides an opportunity to improve the accuracy of identifying urban form and structure. The new methods based on urban big data such as POIs (Points of Interest) can provide accurate and efficient estimation of polycentric urban structure compared with traditional methods. Using 408 768 POIs data in Chongqing urban area, this paper identified the overall pattern of polycentric structure and the polycentric structures of different functions by considering the spatial distribution and the degree of aggregation of POIs. This paper found that Chongqing as a mountain city, constrained by natural condition and stimulated by urban planning, has formed a typical “polycentric form composed of multiple subcenters and clusters”. The distribution of POIs shows that the subcenters have relatively comprehensive urban functions, such as financing, shopping, dwelling and recreation. The main center and several sub-centers in Chongqing gather within the inner ring road. The sub-centers have significant differences in terms of urban development and spatial aggregation. The peripheral subcenters such as Xiyong and Chayuan have lagged behind other subcenters. Therefore, urban aggregation need to be strengthened in the near future.
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    Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Spatial Suitability Evaluation and Population Carrying Capacity in Guixi County
    ZHONG Shan, ZHAO Xiao-min, GUO Xi, YE Ying-cong, LI Wei-feng
    2018, 33 (5):  801-812.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170468
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    Delimitation of urban growth boundary can guide the orderly development of urban space and effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Taking the typical resource city Guixi as the research object, this paper explores effective urban growth boundary delimitation methods from the aspects of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale and two-plan (urban master planning and land-use planning) integration connection. The spatial suitability evaluation takes the natural, spatial accessibility and ecological conditions into consideration and determines the ecological baseline for area not suitable for development and suitability levels for area suitable for development area through the cluster analysis. The baseline and the suitability levels are used to determine the development direction of urban growth boundary. The population of 2020 is forecasted through model of GM(1,1), and the maximum local population is verified based on land resources and water resources. Meanwhile, the urban size is predicated and the sphere of urban growth boundary is delimited. The construction land is reduced by means of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale prediction and two-plan integration connection, and thus, the rigid boundary and elastic boundary can be delimited.
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    Study on Method of Tourism Spatial Planning Based on GIS Grid Analysis—An Example of Qingdao
    LI Peng, WANG Ying-jie, YU Hu, WU Wen-bo, MA Nan
    2018, 33 (5):  813-827.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170476
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    Spatial planning is developing rapidly as the core of supporting tourism general planning, which is mainly relied on the experience of tourism planners instead of technical support. This article proposed a technical method by combining GIS grid and the evaluation model of tourism resources, aiming at evaluating tourism resource monomers and tourism resource clusters and exploring tourism functional areas and spatial developing axes. Then, the feasibility of the method was verified in Qingdao. The experimental result shows: 1) This article put forward a new method on tourism resources collection and gridding spatial analyst of tourism resources. Associated with tourism resources evaluation model, tourism functional area identification model, tourist routes and spatial developing axes model, a series of technical methods integrating tourism resource collection, evaluation, tourism functional area identification and analysis are formed. 2) The paper identified the tourism resource clusters, development potential, tourism functional areas and spatial developing axes in Qingdao and established spatial development pattern of “one core, one band, three axes, five areas” for Qingdao. The paper discussed the method of gridding analysis being applied in tourist spatial planning preliminarily, which can improve the traditional qualitative evaluation method, realize complicated and serialization analytical tourism resources evaluation, tourism functional area identification, tourist routes and spatial developing axes optimization, and provide scientific reference for tourism planning.
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    Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Annual and Maximum Daily Runoff in the Wujiang River Basin
    LIN Xian, CHEN Xiao-hong, HE Yan-hu, LI Shen-lin, ZHENG Yan-hui
    2018, 33 (5):  828-839.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170514
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    Focusing on the quantitative identification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual and maximum daily runoff at a basin scale, taking the Wujiang River Basin, South China for instance, this paper simulated and quantitatively evaluated the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and their contribution ratios to runoff at daily and annual scales by using the HIMS model and elastic coefficient method. The results showed that, the HIMS model performed well in the Wujiang River Basin at daily scale. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are 0.85 and 0.77, and the absolute values of water balance errors are 3.1% and 3.3% respectively in calibration and validation periods. The results obtained by the HIMS model and the elastic coefficient method indicated that climate change is the dominat factor that leads to the increase of annual runoff and human activities cause the runoff decrease while its contribution ratio is smaller compared to that of climate change. The annual maximum daily runoff showed an upward trend due to climate change and human activities. The contribution ratios of climate change and human activities are 94% and 6%, respectively. Climate change has greater impact on annual maximum daily runoff than that on annual average runoff.
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    Changes of Hydro-meteorological Factors and the Relationships with Large-scale Circulation Factors in the Source Region of the Yangtze River
    TANG Jian, CAO Hui-qun, CHEN Jin
    2018, 33 (5):  840-852.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170413
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    Changes of hydro-meteorological factors in the source region of the Yangtze River are a global concern. Pervious research focused on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics in hydro-meteorological factors. Research on the relationships between hydro-meteorological factors and large-scale circulation in the source region of the Yangtze River is scarce. Based on the hydro-meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation factors in the source region of the Yangtze River, trends, volatilities and periodic changes of hydro-meteorology factors (precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflow) during 1957-2012 were explored by using Mann-Kendall method, detrended fluctuation analysis method and wavelet analysis method. The relationships between hydro-meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation factors were further studied. Meanwhile, the driving mechanism of large-scale atmospheric circulation on hydro-meteorological factors was disclosed by analyzing the water vapor flux in the source region of the Yangtze River. The results showed that climatic situations in the source region of the Yangtze River were basically characterized by warm and dry during 1990s. Since 2000s, the climatic turned to warm and wet. Time series of hydro-meteorological factors in the source region of the Yangtze River had positive long-rang correlations. Climatic situation in the source region of the Yangtze River will keep warm and wet in the future. There were 1-5 year, 10-24 year and 25-45 year periods of hydro-meteorological factors in the source region of the Yangtze River. South Asian monsoon (SAM) is a relative important large-scale atmospheric circulation that can influence the precipitation and streamflow in the source region of the Yangtze River. It is mainly because the southwest vapor fluxes driven by the SAM are dominant source of vapor fluxes in the source region of the Yangtze River.
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    Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Drought in Anhui Province Based on CWSI
    WANG Zuo, WANG Fang, ZHANG Yun
    2018, 33 (5):  853-866.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170480
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    Anhui is one of the agricultural provinces and an important commodity grain base in China. Due to factors such as natural geographical location, drought occurs frequently in Anhui Province. Based on the MOD16 product, and the method of crop water stress index (CWSI) combined with meteorological data and MOD13 data, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of drought in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2014 were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) Crop water stress index based on MOD16 product can be used to monitor drought in Anhui Province. 2) During 2000-2014, the average annual CWSI for Anhui Province was 0.524, the maximum value being 0.569 in 2011 and the minimum value being 0.458 in 2003, which showed a weak increasing trend and had a strong spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the average CWSI varied among cities. The area between Huaibei plain and Jianghuai region showed a significant increasing trend, while the mountain areas in south Anhui showed a significant downward trend. 3) The monthly CWSI during one year in Anhui Province showed the single-valley trend, reaching its maximum of 0.66 in March and the minimum of 0.27 in August. Besides, there were obvious seasonal differences. Huaibei plain was prone to spring, autumn and winter drought, Jianghuai hills was prone to spring and autumn drought, and area along the Yangtze River was prone to spring drought. 4) The CWSI varied for different land covers in Anhui Province. Forest land and grassland showed the single-valley pattern with the monthly average maximum in March, while the towns and cultivated land showed the multimodal pattern with the maximum monthly mean in June. 5) Rainfall, temperature and NDVI were closely related to CWSI. In areas with more rainfall and lower temperature, the NDVI was higher, moreover, the CWSI was smaller and the drought degree was lighter, which indicated that rainfall played the most important role in the change of CWSI.
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    Study on the Spatial Synergistic Effect of Copper and Zinc in Tea Garden Soil Based on Copula Function
    DONG Li-kuan, FANG Bin, WANG Chen-ge
    2018, 33 (5):  867-878.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170463
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    It is very important to reveal the spatial synergistic effects of Cu and Zn in tea garden soil in effectively preventing and controlling soil Cu and Zn pollution and ensuring the quality of tea. Taking the typical tea plantations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces as the study areas, this paper simulated the synergistic relationship between Cu and Zn content in the soil with Copula function, estimated the spatial regionalized variables of Cu and Zn in soil with Kriging/IDW interpolation method, and analyzed the spatial synergistic effects with Standard Deviation Ellipse Model. The results showed that: 1) The frequency histogram of the soil Cu and Zn content in the study area showed a “J” type distribution, which indicated that the upper tail is correlated while the lower tail is asymptotically independent; the upper tail correlation coefficient, the Kendall rank correlation coefficient, and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient between the soil Cu and Zn content were 0.345 4, 0.273 5, and 0.396 0, respectively; there is a positive correlation between the Cu and Zn content in soil, so it is recommended to strengthen the soil Cu and Zn content monitoring and improve early warning to avoid combined pollution. 2) As a whole, the correlation between soil Cu and Zn content was higher, but in some local areas it was lower due to the different dominant factors, for example, the soil Cu content in the west of Longjing was mainly affected by the thickness of tillage layer, while the soil Zn content showed a significant negative correlation with soil Se content at the 1% level, and their correlation coefficient was -0.288. Therefore, it could be considered to deal with the pollution of soil Cu and Zn together in the global areas and combine with the actual situation when dealing with the pollution of soil Cu and Zn in the local areas. 3) Copula function, combined with Kriging/IDW estimation and Standard Deviation Ellipse Model, can reflect the synergetic relationship between the content of soil Cu and Zn more truly and effectively and provide reference basis for the determination of Cu and Zn.
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    Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Indirect Carbon Emissions and Its Driving Mechanism in China
    CUI Pan-pan, ZHANG Yan-ping, ZHANG Li-jun, SUN Ying-ying, ZHENG Zhi-cheng, WANG Wei, XU Xiao-xia
    2018, 33 (5):  879-892.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170474
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    The study of indirect carbon emissions is one of the important foundations for exploring the low-carbon lifestyle and promoting the development of ecological civilization. This paper counted the indirect carbon emissions of the urban residents of 30 provinces (except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) based on the input-output analysis and the consumption data of urban residents from 2002 to 2012. Based on the analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of indirect carbon emissions of urban residents, the paper used the LMDI-I addition form, which belongs to the LMDI method, to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms of indirect carbon emissions and its spatial and temporal evolution. The research results showed that the indirect carbon emissions in all provinces showed increasing trends except in Jilin Province. The spatial pattern changes went through the initial phase, the initial differentiation phase, and the rapid evolution phase, and the spatial differentiation degree first declined and then rose. The consumption level is a main factor for indirect carbon emissions’ increasing, and the high value areas mainly gathered in the northern coastal area. The size of the population has a two-way effect on the indirect carbon emissions, and the area of higher positive effect gradually becomes the eastern region which is the same as the area divided by the Hu Huanyong Population Line. The most important factor that caused the reduction of carbon emissions in most provinces is the indirect carbon emission intensity effect with little spatial difference. The changes of residents’ lifestyle contributed little to the indirect carbon emissions, but its spatial evolution characteristics are complicated. According to the differences of four driving mechanisms, the provinces can be divided into vital emission reduction zones, key emission reduction zones and emission reduction concern area. In general, there are differences in the indirect carbon emission characteristics and the driving mechanisms among provinces, and the focus in the future for indirect emission reduction should be different.
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    The Query: The Feasibility of the Water Diversion Function of “Hongqi River”
    YANG Qin-ye, JING Ke, XU Jian-hui
    2018, 33 (5):  893-898.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20180429
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    It is reported that the basic goal of the “Hongqi River” Project (also known as “Red Flag River” Project) is to improve the ecological and environmental conditions of dry areas in the Northwest China by transfering water from the Yarlung Zangbo River, the Nu River, the Lancang River, the Jinsha River, the Yalong River and the Dadu River in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, to Xinjiang and other arid areas. By this way, 200 million mu (around 13.33×104 km2) of farmland and oasis could be developed in the dry areas.“Hongqi River” Project is a grand idea of water diversion across river basins, which has attracted wide attention at home and abroad. However, this grand idea also faces multiple severe challenges in the fields of geology, technology, economy, society and ecology, and there is a great uncertainty.From the perspective of physical geography, natural resources and environment and regional development, 60 billion m3 of water cannot meet the needs of the construction of 200 million mu of farmland, nor can it meet the needs of the ecological green belt of 15×104 km2, and the two cannot be realized at the same time. In addition, how much water can reach the receiving area when there is strong leakage and evaporation along the river? The project is planned to be built for 10 years, with investment of 4 trillion yuan. The investment of farmland irrigation per mu is around 2×104 yuan, and the water charge per cubic meter is nearly 66 yuan. Who will pay for the expensive water bill when the project is completed and running?The environmental impacts and ecological consequences caused by water diversion are of great uncertainty and need to be highly concerned. The water diversion project is not only a complex water conservancy project, but also a very complex ecosystem engineering, and a very complicated social and economic project. Environmental effects, ecological consequences and socioeconomic effects involve complex geophysical, chemical and biological processes, as well as the complex process of harmonious balance between human and earth relations. The “Hongqi River” Project involves international rivers at the same time. The potential geopolitical risks need to be drawn attention. At the existing level of understanding, it is necessary to make a thorough and systematic study of these problems.In addition, in the public awareness of “Hongqi River”, there are still several views that are contrary to scientific cognition, such as “changing the climate pattern of China”, “forest causing precipitation”, and breaking the “Hu Huanyong Line”. The analysis and clarification for these misunderstandings are carried out in the paper.
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    Research Progress on the Quantitative Methods of Calculating Contribution Rates of Climate Change and Human Activities to Surface Runoff Changes
    HUANG Bin-bin, HAO Cheng-yuan, LI Ruo-nan, ZHENG Hua
    2018, 33 (5):  899-910.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170261
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    Surface runoff change is affected by climate change and human activities. Quantitative assessment the impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff changes is significant for water resources management. This paper analyzes the mechanism that climate change and human activities affect the change of surface runoff based on the process of hydrological cycle and compares the methods that separate the impacts of climate change and human activities. Then, the paper analyzes the differences of the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on surface runoff of some watersheds on globe. At present, integrating multiple mutation test methods is beneficial for improving the accuracy in identifying the abrupt change point of surface runoff. Eliminating the interference factors (such as the selection of meteorological and hydrological data, the parameter setting of model method and inherent uncertainty of methods) is of great significance to improve the consistency of the results of different quantitative methods. The key of future research is to find ways that could better couple the physical hydrological model methods and mathematical empirical methods to separate the impact of climate change and human activities on the change of surface runoff.

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