Loading...

Table of Content

    20 June 2014, Volume 29 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Resources Utilization and Management
    Effects of Cultivated Land Use on Temporal-Spatial Variation of Grain Production in China
    JIN Tao
    2014, 29 (6):  911-919.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1744KB) ( )   Save

    There are four factors which denote four types of cultivated land use by drawing on grain production calculating model: grain yield per hectare (intensity effect), cultivated land area (scale effect), planting structure (structure effect) and multiple-cropping index (degree effect). Changes of grain production in China were thus studied by quantifying the contributions from changes in cultivated land use using LMDI method. The results showed: During 1978-2012, there was more aggregated intensity effect than degree effect on the total grain increment, while there was more structure effect than scale effect on the grain reduction. Intensity effect, the largest contributor for China's grain production all the time, decreased step by step, whereas degree effect, whittling down the production in the early phase, then turned to an indispensable promoting factor for its steadily uplift. Structure effect in weakening grain output increased over time, and scale effect expanded markedly from 1998 to 2012 because of the dramatic decline in cultivated area. Spatially, grain production in eastern coastal China was evidently shrinking when the northern and western inland experienced a compensating increase during 1996-2008. The higher positive intensity effect and degree effect were observed in the northern and western peripheral region, while the highly urbanized coastal region had the higher negative scale effect and structure effect, even in some cases with negative degree effect, thus enlarging the regional disparity of China's grain production. From the decomposition findings, the paper concluded with some suggestions for cultivated land use to enhance China's grain security.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Utilization Efficiency of IndustrialWater under the Dual Constraints of Resource and Environment—An Empirical Study Based on SBM-Undesirable and Meta-frontier Model
    LI Jing, MAXiao-can
    2014, 29 (6):  920-933.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1360KB) ( )   Save

    The low utilization efficiency of industrial water in China has become a resource bottleneck restraining the development of industry. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2011, using SBM-Undesirable and the Meta-frontier model, this paper studies water use efficiency of industry under meta-frontier and group-frontier and estimates its influencing factors. The results show that the utilization efficiency of industrial water has a big difference between meta-frontier and group-frontier because of the utilization technological heterogeneity of industrial water in different regions. Efficiency values are generally lower when incorporated in industrial water pollutants. So there is still a larger room for improving the efficiency.Further study finds that the present price of industrial water is distorted to some extent, which can't reflect the efficient allocation of water resources. Policy implications indicate that water use efficiency of industry is concerned with technological heterogeneity, industrial water pollutants and its governance effect. The present price of industrial water should be gradually increased and the scalar water pricing system may be implemented followed the model of the residential water prices.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Measurement of Irrigation Water Efficiency and Analysis of Influential Factors:An Empirical Study Based on Stochastic Production Frontier and Cotton Farmers’ Data in Xinjiang
    GENG Xian-hui, ZHANG Xiao-heng, SONG Yu-lan
    2014, 29 (6):  934-943.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (928KB) ( )   Save

    Water is the strategic resource of the 21st century. Improving the water use efficiency is essential for China's sustainable development. In this paper, a stochastic production frontier approach was used to measure 806 cotton farmers' technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency in Xinjiang, China. The methodology is based on Battese and Coelli's "one-step" inefficiency effect model and Reinhard's single factor efficiency calculation method. A Tobit model was used as well to identify efficiencies' influencing factors. The results showed that technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency were 0.85 and 0.74 respectively. Their correlation relationship was positive and strong. The technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency of the Han nationality were 57.64%, 42.37% higher than other ethnic groups, which means relevant policies should be inclined to ethnic minority area. The technical and irrigation water efficiency of farmers who participated in cotton technical training was 10.37% and 4.88% higher respectively than those not being trained. Drip irrigation technology could significantly improve technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency. It played an important role in enhancing technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency in Xinjiang. Last but not least, crops operating mode as well as the scale of land was conducive to improve both farmers'technical efficiency and irrigation water efficiency. Hence, the farmers were advised to learn their advanced ideas about scale management. What's more, the higher the price, the higher the irrigation water efficiency was. In contrast, the inter-planting practice, which was widely used by farmers, decreased their technical efficiency and irrigation efficiency by 11.8% and 12.8%.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Resources Economics
    Farmland Conversion Efficiency Based on the DEA Model
    WANG Xian-sheng, GUO Zhong-xing
    2014, 29 (6):  944-955.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1778KB) ( )   Save

    Measurement of the efficiency of farmland conversion can provide scientific basis for reasonable exploitation of cultivated land and efficient allocation of construction land. So, it needs to understand the variation tendency and the affecting factors of the efficiency of different regions. Therefore, in this paper, the DEA analysis method was employed to measure the efficiency and its variation of farmland conversion, and the econometric method based on fixedeffect model was employed to analyze the influencing factors of the efficiency.
    The DEA analysis method was mainly used to construct an efficiency index of farmland conversion, which was employed to estimate the efficiency of farmland conversion of each province and four regions in China based on the 2001-2008 provincial level data. The results indicated that the efficiency of farmland conversion on provincial level presented three trends, namely, fluctuating downward, fluctuating upward and maintaining steady. And among the four regions, only the Old Northeastern Industrial Base's mean efficiency was higher than 0.6, while the mean efficiency of the whole country was 0.489, indicating that China had consumed 51.1% more of index of cultivated land occupied by construction (nearly 91455.75 hm2). Meanwhile, due to the reciprocal relationship in the efficiency evaluation between inefficient regions and high efficient regions of the initial year, the convergence phenomenon appeared in evaluation of land conversion efficiency on the provincial and regional levels.
    The analysis of the affecting factors of farmland conversion efficiency implied that the dual system of land property rights was the crux of excessive farmland conversion and unreasonable configuration of farmland conversion. And fiscal expenditure pressure over local governments further fuelled the non-rationality of farmland conversion. Among other factors affecting farmland conversion efficiency, the marginal effect of the upgrading of the industrial structure would be from negative to positive, when the proportion of the tertiary industry achieved at 47.02%, and direction and strength of the level of economic development and urbanization rate of different regions acting on farmland conversion efficiency were different, which made them non-significant statistically at the national level. On these grounds, this paper put forward twowheel driven reform of land system and the fiscal and taxation system to reverse the trend of land conversion efficiency loss.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on the Structure of Scenic Spots Response to the Regional Economic Development:A Case Study on Jiangsu Province
    XU Jing, HUANG Zhen-fang, JIN Cheng
    2014, 29 (6):  956-966.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2567KB) ( )   Save

    With the help of the spatial variogram, and taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper builds an index to describe the structure of scenic spots response to the regional economic development. Then, this paper describes scenic spots evolvement among county level based on four years: 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, it is going to discuss the structure and evolvement of the response. Through analysis, the paper finds out some evolvement rules. Firstly, The north of Jiangsu has developed fast in the past, especially in Huai'an and Suqian. However, the distribution of scenic spots in Jiangsu Province is unbalanced greatly which is more in south and less in north. The highest values of scenic spots are all distributed in south, such as the cities of Nanjing, Suzhou and Wuxi. Secondly, the number of high response regions has been risen in the beginning, and then reduced. High response regions are mainly distributed along the north bank of the Changjiang River. The distribution of low response regions has been changed from north to south of Jiangsu. Thirdly, the spatial fraction has rised from 1.884 to 1.970 during 2001-2009, and then reduced to 1.894 during 2009-2012. In the perspective of spatial fractal dimension, the diversity of response is better, but the diversity of response in different directions are changed rapidly. Fourthly, considering with the diversity of response index and regional development, we have divided the counties into six types. There are more low responsiveness type units, and least highly responsive high type units. Through the above discussion, we divided the factors of the evolvement of response into two aspects: outside factors and inside factors. Then, we analyzed the mechanism of these factors and put forward the optimization measures of different types.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Resources Evaluation
    Impact Analysis of Climate Change from Land Use/Cover Change in Inner Mongolia Plateau
    ZHAI Jun, SHAO Quan-qin, LIU Ji-yuan
    2014, 29 (6):  967-978.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (7698KB) ( )   Save

    Land use/cover change (LUCC) will impact near the ground temperature measurement. Based on the temperature data from meteorological stations, 1:100000 LUCC data sets and NCEP reanalysis temperature data, we use"observation minus reanalysis (OMR)"method to extract the land cover individual contributions for temperature change. Also we use Sen trend method and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test to analyze the impact of air temperature and the change caused by LUCC. The result show that the air temperature generally exhibit significant warming trend during the study area in recent 30 years, the trend is 0.29 ℃/10 a. The order of different land cover type trend of temperature increase is sand land>built-up land> grassland>farmland. The temperature increase trend is different during different land cover types. Even the same land cover type could display different trends. The main LUCC change types are farmland reclamation, urban expansion and decrease in grassland area during the station buffer area between 1990-2005. To some extent, this result could reflects the whole LUCC change characteristics in the Inner Mongolia region, especially the anthropologic effects. LUCC caused the temperature increase 0.49 ℃ during 1990-2005. Between the 1980-2010, land cover changes gradually increased, especially after 2000, the rapid urbanization significantly increase the region temperature rising trend.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Characteristics of Summer Atmospheric Water Resources and Its Causes over the Tibetan Plateau in Recent 30 Years
    XIE Cheng-ying, LI Min-jiao, ZHANG Xue-qin
    2014, 29 (6):  979-989.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (10672KB) ( )   Save

    Considering the effects of unique landscape of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), South Asian monsoon and mid-latitudes westerlies, the spatiotemporal variation of the summer atmospheric water resources and its main causes over the TP are analyzed from the aspects of the precipitable water content, the water vapor transport and budget with the adoption of NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010. The results show that the 32-year regional mean water vapor net budgets were convergences for the whole TP but the northwestern part. The precipitable water vapor and water vapor budget over the south-central, southeastern and northwestern TP exhibited increasing trends, while the northeastern TP decreased during the period of 1979-2010. Despite of the rising of precipitable water vapor, the water vapor net income declined over the north-central TP. The mid-latitude westerlies and South Asian monsoon dominated the variability of atmospheric water resources over the TP, and the interdecadal descending characteristics of the zonal index and the South Asian monsoon index implied the weakening of the zonal moisture transport over the east-central TP and meridional transport over the south of 30°N in the TP and its surrondings, respectively. Moreover, the difference of the water vapor budget among the five partitions was exacerbated by the unique landform distribution of the TP.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Change in Extreme Precipitation Events over Tibet from 1961 to 2012
    DU Jun, LU Hong-ya, JIAN Jun
    2014, 29 (6):  990-1002.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (13136KB) ( )   Save

    Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, the features for ten indices of precipitation extremes over Tibet are examined, broadly based on daily precipitation data during the period 1961-2012 from 18 meteorological stations. The methods of 10-year smoothing average, linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet transform were employed to delineate the rate of change, abrupt change points, statistical significance of the trends, and periodicity of extreme precipitation indices. The results show that Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) exhibit significant decreasing trend during the recent 52 years, so does the maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), but the variation trend of the latter is not significant. In contrast, there is not an obvious linear variation trend in very wet day precipitation (R95) and number of medium precipitation days (R10mm), whereas other six extreme precipitation indices have non-significant increasing trends. Compared with over the globe, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas, regression slopes of CDD and continuous wet days (CWD) over Tibet are obviously greater, but regression slopes of maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), R95 and extremely wet day precipitation (R99) are apparently smaller. Except for CDD, other extreme precipitation indices can be quadratically regressed against altitude. Moreover, R10mm is positively associated with longitude. With regard to the period of variation, almost all extreme precipitation indices vary at three or four years scale, and most indices have such periods as 12 a, 15 a and 16 a. In terms of the change point, CDD occurs in 1974, much earlier than such indices as R10mm, CWD and wet day precipitation (in the late 1980s). From the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation indices, the variation trend in western Naqu is more distinct, and most of the extreme precipitation indices are observed to be dropping in most parts of the middle reaches in the Yarlung Zangbo River. On the other hand, escalating trends in extreme precipitation value and precipitation intensity are found in southern Shannan and southeastern Nyingchi.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Drought in Southwest China over the Past 53 years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
    WANG Dong, ZHANG Bo, AN Mei-ling, ZHANG Tiao-feng, JI Ding-min, REN Pei-gui
    2014, 29 (6):  1003-1016.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (9064KB) ( )   Save

    Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), this study statistically analyzed the meteorological data of 128 meteorological stations during 1960-2012 in Southwest China. It analyzed temporal variation characteristics of drought in nearly half a century from the following perspectives: annual variation trends of drought, seasonal variation trends of drought, drought intensity, the frequency of drought events, drought frequency as well as the relationship with ENSO events. The results show that: 1) It tends to be dry in the entire region of Southwest China and other sub-regions in the past 53 years, and the drought occurs most frequently at the turn of the century. The drought intensity also tends to increase, so does the frequency of extreme drought and medium drought. 2) Most parts of the region tend to be dry in all seasons, it is especially typical in autumn. 3) In Southwest China, the drought happens most frequently in spring, which mainly distributes in Hengduan Mountains, the east Sichuan Basin and the central Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. In summer, drought mainly distributes in the north Hengduan Mountains, Zoige Plateau and the northwest Guangxi hilly area. In autumn, the drought often happens in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Guangxi hilly area and some parts of Sichuan Basin. In winter, the drought mainly happens in the Zoige Plateau and southwestern part of Sichuan Basin. 4) There are different relevances between the seasonal drought index and ENSO index in all the sub-regions. In the aspect of annual variation trend, there is a significantly negative correlation between the ENSO strength and SPEI of the Sichuan Basin and Hengduan Mountains, and other areas are the opposite. Meanwhile, the droughts will occur in the El Niño and La Niña year in Southwest China. But the drought frequency is higher in the year when the the El Niño events occur than the La Niña events do. However, there are regional differences, it is in El Niño years that the drought often happens in the Sichuan Basin and Zoige Plateau, while Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is opposite and Guangxi hilly area and Hengduan Mountains are inconspicuous.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Indicator System and Evaluation Method of“Three Red Lines” ofWater Resources Management in Beijing
    LIU Xiao, LIU Hong-li, WANG Hong-rui, YU Song, MADong-chun
    2014, 29 (6):  1017-1028.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1717KB) ( )   Save

    In order to perfect the most strictest water management system of China in the quantitative and operable manners, the"Three Red Lines"(TRL) indicator system, one kind of water resources management systems, was built in this paper by means of questionnaire survey, expert evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process, and was designed to be implemented simultaneously with the national Five-Year Plan of the different periods as well. Then this paper proposed the TRL evaluation method, and took Beijing as an example to predict its goal values of the TRL target indicators of the year 2015 by the trend analysis method and the water quota method. Finally, we evaluated and classified the statuses of the TRL management of different districts of Beijing in 2011, and put forward corresponding proposals for improving water resources management specifically. For areas of level-5, such as Fangshan District and Daxing District, all four indicators were not up to the standard, whose total quality control, efficiency control and assimilative capacity all need to be strengthened. In particular, Fangshan District should pay more attention to its water quality amelioration, while Daxing District is bound to focus on the water use efficiency improvement. For areas of level-4, the six urban districts should further control the water use efficiency. For areas of level-3, both Tongzhou District and Changping District need to strengthen the water pollution control. For areas of level-2, Mentougou District is supposed to emphasize water use control, Shunyi District and Yanqing District stress water pollution control. For areas of level-1, Huairou District, Pinggu District and Miyun District, all four indicators were satisfied which meant the ideal comprehensive management have been practiced there.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    WRF 3DVAR Data Assimilation Numerical Simulation and Analysis ofWind Energy Resources over Bohai Sea Region
    DONG Xu-guang, MENG Xiang-xin, XU Hong-xiong, CHEN Yan-chun, LIU Huan-bin
    2014, 29 (6):  1029-1042.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (13684KB) ( )   Save

    From the view of improving initial conditions of wind energy resources over Bohai Sea region and using the data of wind tower network over the same region, a 3DVAR data assimilation scheme is designed based on WRF model and its 3DVAR module. By using this scheme, a series of WRF numerical experiments of a strong wind event over the Bohai Sea from 12 to 13 April, 2010 was conducted to evaluate its performance. By selecting the optimal 3DVAR assimilation scheme, one year's WRF numerical simulation of 70 m height wind energy resources over Bohai Sea region between June 1, 2009 to May 31, 2010 was conducted. The results show that the annual average wind speed between measured values and analog values can obviously decrease by using YSU PBL scheme. The optimal WRF numerical model and 3DVAR assimilation can simulate the change regulation of the 70 m height hourly average wind speed in Bohai Sea region. The absolute error and relative error of average wind speed after wind tower data assimilation are smaller than before its assimilation and simulation of hourly wind speed approach observation. The annual average wind speed difference between simulation and observation of each wind tower is no more than 1.5 m/s and wind speed difference of eight wind towers is over 1.0 m/s, meanwhile wind speed difference of more than ten wind towers are below 0.5 m/s. The relative error of annual average wind speed between simulation and observation of all wind towers is 11.3%, of which 12 wind towers'are below 10.0% and three wind towers' are over 20.0%. The 70 m height annual average wind speed and wind power density over Bohai Sea region are showed small in southern part and large in the northern and the wind energy resources of central and northern Bohai Sea are higher than others. The wind speed trends is smaller in Bohai Sea but the inland wind speed affected by terrain changes dramatically. Distribution of the wind energy parameter is obviously affected by coastline and it decreases sharply along inland direction.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Stable Oxygen Isotope in Precipitation in Relation to the Meteorological Factors and the Moisture Sources in Yunnan
    LI Guang, ZHANG Xin-ping, WU Hua-wu, ZHANG Jian-ming, WEI Nai-qiong, HUANG Huang
    2014, 29 (6):  1043-1052.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (5968KB) ( )   Save

    Based on the data of precipitation samples and meteorological facters from Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2011 in Kunming, Tengchong and Mengzi of Yunnan Province. In combination with the data of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and the NCEP/NCAR, the relationships between the δ18O in precipitation and the precipitation amount, temperature and air pressure on the synoptic timescale were analyzed of the three stations. We also analyzed the relationships between the δ18O in precipitation and the wind speed of different heights. The results indicated that under the synoptic timescales, there was significant negative correlation between the δ18O in precipitation and the precipitation amount, temperature and air pressure. It suggested that the variations of the δ18O in precipitation had significant precipitation amount effect, anti-temperature effect and humidity effect. At the same time, there was significant positive correlation between the δ18O in precipitation and the different heights wind speed, this indicated that the wind speed of different heights was also an important factor in changing the δ18O in precipitation at some way. Taking advantage of the HYSPLIT 4.8 to track the trajectory of moisture sources in Kunming, Tengchong and Mengzi, we found that the moisture sources at the three stations were the same, the result indicated that the three stations were in the same water vapour channel. During the wet seasons (May-September), the moisture sources mainly came from the Bay of Bengal, the Arabin Sea and the South China Sea. However, the δ18O in precipitation during the wet seasons was lower. During the dry seasons (October-next April), the moisture sources maily came from westerly wind belt carried the inland water vapour and the local water vapour circulation. The δ18O in precipitation during the dry seasons was higher.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin
    ZHOU Lianga, XU Jian-gangb, CAI Bei-ming, JIANG Jin-linga, SUN Dong-qia
    2014, 29 (6):  1053-1064.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (7913KB) ( )   Save

    Taking 172 counties of the Huaihe River Basin as research unit, using each county's grain and fertilizer data in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and water environment data in 2010, and based on ESDA model, gravity model, regression analysis model and GIS spatial technology method, this article measures degree of spatial concentration and the center of gravity of the watershed grain production and fertilizer consumption respectively, and on this basis, it further analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic variation and coupled relationship of the basin food production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on the basin water environment. The results show that: 1) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of grain production and fertilizer consumption show significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. The "H-H" type areas are mainly distributed in the Northern Jiangsu Plain and the North of Anhui Plain at downstream of the basin. The "L-L" type areas are mainly distributed in the Funiu Mountain, Tongbai Mountain, and Yimeng Mountain at upstream of the basin. 2) The center of gravity analysis shows that the center of gravity of food production and fertilizer consumption moved gradually from the northeast to the southwest of the basin in the past 20 years, moving 29.51 km and 34.97 km respectively. Both distances of the center presents approximately the "W-shaped" pattern, the hovering characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing, further reducing and then increasing. 3) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of the basin grain production and fertilizer consumption are highly coupled in spatial location, presenting the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of increase and decrease collaboration. Both the evolution trajectory of the centers has the same direction, and the characteristics of spatial coupling are significant. 4) Regression analysis shows that fertilizer consumption is the main contribution factor and pollution source of the basin's environmental pollution, also indicates that the environmental cost in the basin food production process is comparatively large, showing the external diseconomies effect.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Resources Research Methods
    Analysis of Regional Soil Moisture Forecasting Model in Northeast China
    SUN Qian-qian, LIU Jing-miao, LIANG Hong
    2014, 29 (6):  1065-1075.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (6934KB) ( )   Save

    The spatial-temporal variations of soil moisture in Northeast China are analyzed by using the observation data from 1981 to 2010 with cluster analysis statistic test (CAST). The regional soil moisture forecasting model is also established. The results show that the soil moisture shows an upward trend in central part and a downward trend in other parts in recent 30 years, but the western part shows a larger decline, the southern part presents a smaller decline. The significant impact factors of soil moisture are different in different parts of the region. But the correlation is evident when compared with precipitation and soil moisture in ten days before. The forecast equations of different parts are established with the data from 1981 to 2007 and checked with the data from 2008 to 2010. The average relative errors are all less than 13.67%. The predicted value is closed to the observation value, so the real situations of soil moisture can be showed by this predicted value.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Process-Based Decision-Making Model and Its Application for Farm Households’Learning Behavior Responding to Environmental Changes
    CHEN Hai, LIANG Xiao-ying, WANG Guo-yi, LI Qin, WANG Jun
    2014, 29 (6):  1076-1089.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (5423KB) ( )   Save

    More work has been called for with regard to farmers' behavior and its understanding in relation to the complexity of agricultural systems. However, significant strands of research in the field do not rely on an explicit and well-motivated behavioral theory. It is necessary that the process-based method should be used to study farm household's behavior on land use. In this paper, according to the decision-making framework of Belief, Desire, Intention (BDI) which has been used to reveal the decision-making of different agents for land use change under the hypothesis of the maximum benefit, the farm households'land-use decisionmaking model was designed. In order to explore the formation process and change of farm households'decision, we try to use the actual decision-making of farm households rather than decision-making of maximum benefit. Then, the decision-making of farm household was based on the theory of bounded rationality, not the theory of the maximum benefit. The BDI of farm householders were formulated respectively, and the interaction among the same and different farm groups was analyzed. Based on a case study in a study area in Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province of China, we discuss the potential and limitations of farm household's land-use decision-making model under three hypothetical local policy scenarios. Compared to the difference between the actual land use change and the result of the simulation, we analyze the validity of the model. From our design and implementation of the farm household's land-use model a number of conclusions can be drawn: 1) The BDI framework can well reveal the general process of individual decision-making, and can explore the mechanism of formation and change of individual land-use decision-making, especially to analyze the learning behavior of individuals while the environment changes. 2) In order to prompt shallot planting, we propose that the local government should help the farm household shallot cooperatives to grasp the market risk, standardize the cooperation and supervise the contract among farm household shallot cooperatives and farm households.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
Share: