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Table of Content

    20 May 2014, Volume 29 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Resources Utilization and Management
    Changes and Relationships of Arable Land Functions in Beijing in Recent Years
    YANG Xue, TAN Ming-hong
    2014, 29 (5):  733-743.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1448KB) ( )   Save

    Based on establishing Beijing's evaluation system of arable land functions, this paper studies changes in arable land functions and discusses relationships between different functions with the range standardized method and the improved T correlation degree. Study data is mainly from Statistical Yearbook from 2004 to 2011. The results show that: 1) The functions of winter wheat, corn and flowers production of arable land are enhanced significantly, while vegetables and fodder production functions significantly decrease in Beijing from 2004 to 2011. The ecological environment function is expressed by reverse indexes which change differently, such as significant increase in road density and intensity of agricultural plastic film use, fluctuant decrease in pesticide intensity, and fluctuant rising in fertilizer intensity. 2) Leisure function is enhanced significantly. By contrast, employment safeguard function and life safeguard function are weakened evidently. Moreover, there is a fluctuation on food security function. 3) From 2004 to 2011, production function of winter wheat and the ratio of per capita grain guarantee have the similar trend, followed by fodder production function and the proportion of crop farming employees. 4) By the opportunity cost of rural labor increases, the labor saving crops may have stronger competitiveness. Similarly, the less the farmers'income from agriculture, the more the labor saving input. Besides, with the enhancement of the leisure function and corn production function, the proportion of crop farming employees decreases.

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    Spatial Pattern Optimization Simulation of Coastal Wetland Use Based on BP Neural Network and Cellular Automata—A Case of Dafeng Coastal Wetland
    OU Wei-xin, XIAO Jin-cheng, LI Wen-hao
    2014, 29 (5):  744-756.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (12836KB) ( )   Save
    In this paper, using BP neural network model and cellular automata (CA) model, 23 spatial variables including natural, economic and social aspects which drive the beach reclamation of coastal vegetation are selected and the spatial pattern simulation model of wetland is established by using MATLAB R2010b software. With remote sensing image of Landsat TM/ ETM+ in Dafeng, Yancheng coastal wetland in three periods of 1988, 2002 and 2009, and the population and economic data of the respective year and based on the simulation thought of optimizing pattern, firstly, we use the wetland function niche model to diagnose historical excessively exploiting areas. Then we train the conversion rules of CA model belonging to the rational development rule. Finally, we simulate the space optimization pattern of Dafeng coastal wetland in 2016. To improve operational efficiency and accuracy of the model, we use two new methods in this study. One method is based on the cover quantity structure in the target year, which limits the proportion of training samples randomly, so as to improve 10000 samples of the effective information amount. The second is through comparing with simulating accuracy under different hiding layer nodes of BP neural network,"23-13-8" and "23-17-8" are determined as the optimal BP structures in two experiments. These two improvements enhance the efficiency of simulation, and the overall accuracy is higher than 93.6%. This research shows that, during these years, the succession among the cover types of Dafeng coastal wetland tends to be frequent, and the speed of reclamational year of natural wetland is obviously faster. At the same time, the development focus is constantly moving eastward, which shows the characteristics of "rolling development" to the sea. Finally, it is recommended to slacken the disorderly development in the surrounding core areas of Jiangsu Yancheng National Nature Reserve and Dafeng Milu National Nature Reserve, and to promote the orderly reclamation of tidal flats near Dafeng Port.
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    Patterns and Dynamics of China’s Human-nature Carbon Source-sink System
    JIANG Jin-liang, XU Jian-gang, WU Wen-jia, ZHOU Liang, SUN Dong-qi
    2014, 29 (5):  757-768.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (7494KB) ( )   Save
    This paper has tried to provide further insight into the carbon flow problem from the perspective of human-nature system. Based on energy data and remote sensing data from 2001 to 2009, we calculated the carbon sequestration and carbon emission of different provinces; by introducing the flow ratio, the high carbon source area, the low carbon source area and the carbon sink area were divided; besides, with the standard ellipses we also analyzed the diffusioncoalescence tendency of the human- nature carbon source- sink system to uncover its patterns and dynamics. Results show that: 1) The high carbon source area is mainly in northern China and Shanghai with a diffusion tendency; the low carbon source area is mainly in eastern China, central China and Guangdong with a diffusion tendency to the west and the south; the carbon sink area is mainly in northwestern China, northeastern China and southwestern China. 2) The high carbon source area has expanded from a point to form a triangle structure between northern China and Shanghai; the low carbon source area shows a quadrilateral structure between central China, eastern China, Guangdong and Jilin; the carbon sink area encompasses the low carbon source area. The high carbon source area has a diffusion tendency from inside to outside. The low carbon source area has continually changed into the high carbon source area while the carbon sink area has continually changed into the low carbon source area. 3) The standard deviation ellipse of the high carbon source area is in eastern China and northern China and shows a northwest-southeast pattern, whose range remained unchanged before 2005 and then expanded. The standard deviation ellipse of the low carbon source area is mainly in the region of eastern China and northern China and its pattern has changed as a sequence of northeast-southwest, northwest-southeast, northeast-southwest, and northwest-southeast. The low carbon source area distribution on the main direction and the horizontal direction has continually dispersed with the greatest change from 2001 to 2003 and little change after that. The carbon sink system represents a northeast-southwest pattern and the ellipse is mainly in eastern China with little change of axis, which shows the stability of the carbon sink area pattern during this period.
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    China’s Carbon Emissions Embodied in Final Demands Items
    DONG Wen-chao, ZHAO Jian-ai, ZHANG Ze-yi
    2014, 29 (5):  769-778.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2149KB) ( )   Save
    In this paper, from the composition of China's GDP, we use input-output method to analyze the growth of CO2 emissions and the economic pull factors of the growth of China's CO2 emissions. Through the analysis, we get some conclusions: 1) Consumer and investment constitute the two major drivers of China's CO2 emissions. Their contribution has been more than 84.5% of the proportion of China's total CO2 emissions. And in view of China's future economic development trend, it is expected that the consumer and investmentled proportion of CO2 emissions will be increased gradually. 2) CO2 emissions from different sectors of household consumption are more dispersed, but the proportion of oil, gas, mining industry and textile and garments, leather down and its products industry is relatively higher. 3) CO2 emissions of government purchases account for relatively small share. And its proportion declined from 14.61% to 5.39% during 1992-2007 which showed an apparently gradual downward trend. 4) Import and export have the opposite effect on CO2 emissions. In the foreseeable future, the upward trend of China's total CO2 emissions is irreversible. And in the future, the net CO2 emissions of China from import and export may face an increasing trend.
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    Resources Ecology
    Regional Ecological Vulnerability Assessment Based on VSD Model:A Case Study of Xijiang River Economic Belt in Guangxi
    LI Ping-xing, FAN Jie
    2014, 29 (5):  779-788.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1936KB) ( )   Save
    The interactive effects of natural and human factors on ecosystem have been focused on by quite a few researchers. Many theories and methods were proposed to carry out such research work, but few researches focused on the quantitative assessment on large-scale ecological vulnerability caused by natural and human factors and indicated the difference between nature- and human-induced vulnerability. Taking Xijiang River Economic Belt in Guangxi (XREB for short) as a case area, we carried out assessment on vulnerability based on VSD model developed by Polsky and his cooperators in 2007. Five kinds of ecological vulnerable zones were divided accordingly. XREB is a naturally vulnerable region, and recent rapid development intensified the vulnerability. Our indices were composed of three sub-objects, ten elements and 25 indicators, which included factors from both natural and human aspects. Assessment and zoning results based on VSD model indicated the spatial differentiation of zones with different vulnerability, and zones with the lowest, lower, middle, higher and highest vulnerability occupied 11.31%, 22.63%, 27.60%, 24.39%, and 14.07%, respectively. The eastern and western parts of XREB were more vulnerable than the middle part. Vulnerable zones caused by natural factors including high elevation and complicated topography distributed in the mountain areas, but that caused by human activities distributed in the surrounding areas of big cities mainly. From the over-lay relationship between five kinds of vulnerable zones and current construction lands, about 53% of the construction lands distributed at zones with higher and middle vulnerability, and less than 10% distributed in zone with the lowest vulnerability. However, the distributions of three types of construction lands were different. Most of the urban & town lands were located in zones with the highest, higher and middle vulnerability, accounting for 29.63%, 36.65% and 21.90%, respectively. Moreover, minute quantity of urban & town land was located in zone with the lowest vulnerability. The distribution of rural settlements was more dispersed than urban & town land, and zone with the lowest vulnerability was of least proportion, which was about 12%. The other construction land was of similar spatial distribution pattern with rural settlements, but zone with the highest vulnerability was of least proportion, which was about 9%. As human factor has already caused the increasing of ecological vulnerability, future economic growth and regional development should turn to zones with lower and the lowest vulnerability. Based on zoning results, inducing factors, and the spatial relationship with current construction lands, suggestions on regional development or ecological protection were proposed accordingly.
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    Ecoregion of Lake Nutrients:A Case Study of Northeast China
    KE Xin-li, LIU Man, DENG Xiang-zheng
    2014, 29 (5):  789-800.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3109KB) ( )   Save
    In recent years, the problem of lake eutrophication becomes more and more serious in China, moreover, there are many lakes in China. Furthermore, the geographical environment and degree of eutrophication of the lakes are various among different lakes. So it is urgent to manage and control lake eutrophication regionally in China. Ecoregion of lake nutrients is the basis and premise of lake nutrients and its eutrophication effect control in China. Taking lake areas of Northeast China as a case of the study, an ecoregion method system for lake nutrients and its eutrophication effect which is based on rough set method is discussed in this paper. Firstly, the index system of lake nutrients ecoregion is built up from three aspects such as physiographical environment, ecological index and human activities. Secondly, the rough set method is employed to calculate weights for each index in the ecoregional index system. In this paper, Chl-a/TP and Chl-a/TN are taken as the decision attributes, while factors such as land use situation, DEM, landform, annual accumulated temperature, annual total precipitation, phosphorus content and nitrogen content in the soil, population density and GDP etc. as the condition attributes of rough set method, to work out weights for each index. Thirdly, combining with weights of each index and its value, the assessment score for lake nutrients region in raster format can be figured out. And then, this kind of assessment score is projected to watersheds in the study area. Finally, dual-constraint cluster algorithm is employed to work out the lake nutrient regions by different assessment scores between watersheds. Results show that: 1) Rough set method can figure out the relative weight of each index in an index system from numerous historical data and the relationship between them. So, the influence on the reliability of the result from subjective factors and incompleteness of sample data can be avoided. According to the definition of rough entropy, it is suitable to calculate weights of index for lake nutrients ecoregion that determine objective weight of each attribute by the importance of attribute. 2) Comparing to conventional spatial clustering algorithm, the dual-constrained spatial clustering algorithm considers not only spatial distances between objects but also the similarities of non-spatial attributes between objects. So, eco-regionalization of lakes by nutrient concentration as revealed by the dual-constrained spatial clustering algorithm ensures spatial continuity and score proximity in the partition results. 3) Using the nutrient level data from this study, with the help of rough set method and dual-constrained spatial clustering algorithm, the northeastern humid and semi-humid temperate region of China can be divided into five lake nutrient ecoregions, such as the northern Da Higgan Mts. Mountain Lakes ecoregion, Xiao Hinggan Mountain and Sanjiang Plain Lakes ecoregion, Changbaishan Mountain Lakes ecoregion, the Songnen Plain Lakes ecoregion, and the east Liaoning hilly, west Liaoning hilly, Liaohe Plain Lakes ecoregion.
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    Resources Evaluation
    Competition for Soil Moisture between Different Vegetation Types in the Water and Wind Crisscross Region of the Loess Plateau
    QIAO Yan-qin, FAN Jun, GAO Yu, WANG Sheng, YI Cai-qiong
    2014, 29 (5):  801-809.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (6569KB) ( )   Save
    Below ground interactions for water among neighboring vegetation were studied in the water and wind erosion crisscross region of the Loess Plateau by field survey. The purpose of the study is to investigate water competition among vegetation types by contrast analysis of soil moisture and aboveground biological characteristics. The experiment included four land use types (abandoned land, caragana land, alfalfa land and farmland) and three replications. Soil samples were collected from 0 to 400 cm in summer, 2012. The aboveground biological characteristics (height, canopy diameter and biomass) were measured at the same time. The results showed that soil moisture content in the abandoned land and farmland decreased close to the caragana land and alfalfa land. The total soil water storage of the abandoned land decreased 75.3 mm from the first measured point (573.7 mm) to the fourth measured point (498.4 mm), and the total soil water storage of farmland decreased 71.6 mm from the second measured point (685.8 mm) to the first measured point (614.2 mm). Caragana affected soil moisture in adjacent abandoned land by at least 6 m in the horizontal direction. Soil water storage from the fourth measured point of caragana land to the fourth measured point of alfalfa land were all smaller than 400 mm, and soil water storage (360.3 mm) of the second measured point of alfalfa land affected by caragana and alfalfa was the lowest among all measured points. Moreover, caragana near abandoned land and alfalfa near farmland have a higher biological index than the other measured points. This means that these two deep root plants absorbed soil water from neighboring land. So, planting caragana and alfalfa together would lead to intensive competition for soil water. Plants with shallow roots and deep roots should be arranged together when vegetation restoration is conducted in arid or semi-arid regions in order to delay soil water depletion.
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    Energy Budget in the Surface Layer over Pasture in the Source Regions of the Yellow River
    LI Fu, ZHOU Bing-rong, LI Feng-xia, XIAO Rui-xiang, QI Dong-lin
    2014, 29 (5):  810-818.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3834KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the data observed by environmental gradient monitoring system from November 2009 to October 2010 at Maduo, using the synthetic method the sensible heat fluxes and latent heat fluxes were calculated, then the energy budget of surface layer in the source regions of the Yellow River was analyzed. The results indicated that the annual total radiation was 6.73×109 J/m2, being more than 5.50×108 J/m2 between March and September. The annual surface reflectance was 1.77×109 J/m2, being more than 2.00×108 J/m2 in November and December due to impact of the snow. More than 60% of the surface absorbed shortwave energy transmitted to atmosphere by radiation in cold season, but it's less than 50% in summer; the annual net radiation was 2.09×109 J/m2, but it was negative in December. The surface spent 80.5% energy which became latent heat annually, and only 1.9% transferred to deep soil. The latent heat consumed energy every month, and sensible heat consumed energy except October. Surface absorbed energy from deep soil between October and February, and consumed energy between March and September. The budget of the surface layer had some differences in different months, especially in cold season.
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    The Verification Framework of COD Reduction Assessment at Basin Scale:Case Study in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Huaihe River Basin
    ZHANG Yong-yong, WANG Zhong-gen, YU Jing-jie, ZHAI Xiao-yan
    2014, 29 (5):  819-829.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (14101KB) ( )   Save
    COD is the most important evaluation index of pollutants discharge reduction in China. How to scientifically account and assess the effects of COD discharge reduction is one of the key problems to guarantee successful implementation of the national economic and social development program. In this study, an assessment framework of COD discharge reduction has been explored based on distributed hydrological model at basin scale. Moreover, the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River is selected as study area, and the impact of different reduction scenarios on water environment at some key cross-sections has been analyzed and severe regions of reduction task are identified. The results showed that: 1) the average concentration of COD belonged to Class IV at the outlet of the study area during 1991 and 2000. Nearly 18% of the current COD load should be reduced in order to meet the water quality standard of water function zone (Class Ⅲ) at the outlet section. 2) The most sensitive regions to COD discharge reduction included the middle Shaying River, the upper Guohe River, Jialu River and the south of Huaihe River. The water environment would be significantly improved if the COD load discharged into rivers was reduced by a half. But the water environment was still severe, belonging to Class V in the drainage basins of Beiru River, the middle Hongru River, the downstream of Shaying River and the upstream of Guohe River, where the agricultural non-point source pollution contributed a larger proportion to the water pollution. 3) In order to improve the water environment of the Huaihe River Basin, the control of COD discharge should be paid more attention, and the non-point source pollution prevention in some key regions shouldn't be ignored. The study will be expected to give technical and scientific guide for the water pollution prevention and water quality management, and also provide reference and foundation for the establishment and implementation of energy saving and emission reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
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    Characteristics of Southwestern China Dry-wet Condition Based on Wetness Index in 1960-2011
    WANG Yun, LIU Pu-xing, CAO Li-guo, GAO Yuan, YONG Guo-zheng
    2014, 29 (5):  830-838.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2393KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the daily data from108 meteorological stations in Southwest China during 1960 to 2011, as well as use of the monthly potential evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation data, the surface humidity index was calculated. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of surface humidity index were analysized by using the methods of Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation in ArcGIS 9.3, moving t-test technique, climate tendency rate and Morlet wavelet. The results show that: in recent 52 years, the surface humidity index in Southwest China is decreasing in fluctuation and the decreasing rate is -0.005/10 a, which showed the slightly trend to drought. The 1990s have the greatest increase in change to wet and the anomaly value is 0.106. The 21st century witnesses the most significant increase in desiccation and the anomaly value is -0.052. Especially after 2002, surface humidity index drops significantly, the minimum value appears in 2009 and the anomaly value is 1.41. Annual humidity index exists obvious differences in space. The surface humidity index not only decreases from southeast to northwest, but also from south to north. Western Sichuan Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau are the low center value while the high value center is in the western Sichuan Basin. The area turning to be dry is larger than to be wet in the study area, correspondingly, the process of turning to be dry is more obvious than that of wet. Abrupt change analysis and Morlet wavelet power spectrum analysis indicated that surface dry and wet conditions in Southwest China have abrupt change events in 1990 and 2003 with a period 10.638 years.
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    Construction of Evaluation Index System for Water Conservation of Universities in Beijing
    WANG Ying, CHEN Yuan-sheng, ZHU Long-teng, JIANG Lei, LI Lu, SHEN Tian
    2014, 29 (5):  839-846.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1418KB) ( )   Save
    The aim of this article is to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of water conservation of universities in Beijing, and provide a useful reference for water-saving practice. The data basis of the following research has three sources. The first is the typical test of water use which was conducted among five universities in Beijing. Followed by the questionnaire survey of water use which was conducted among 30 universities in Beijing. And finally are the relevant existing water-saving regulations and standards. This paper systematically analyzed the contents of water evaluation, specifically the relationship among water use efficiency, water saving technology and water saving management. According to the characteristics of different indicators, this paper adopts different approaches, such as watersaving potential analysis, hierarchy analysis, efficacy coefficient method, and expert counseling method, etc. The index system includes three first-level indicators, 12 second-level indicators and 26 third- level indicators. Water use efficiency can be truely and objectively reflect the actual water saving level of the water users, and it is a quantitative expression of final outcome of the water conservation work. Efficiency evaluation indicators are composed of the water use efficiency of school, teaching areas, living areas and green spaces. The total water use efficiency reflects the water level of the universities in the overall, but the water use efficiency of these three parts reflect it from the microscopic internal structure. Furthermore, water saving technology and water saving management are measures and means for water users to improve water use efficiency, and correspond to the hardware base and software infrastructure in the water conservation work. Combination of both can explain why high and low level of water use efficiency in universities. In other word, water use efficiency embodies the final results to conserve water, and water saving technology and water saving management reflect the concrete process of water-saving work. The three parts complement one another and are an organic whole. As an integral part of university water-saving evaluation, the three together embody the goals of water conservation work with a combination of objective management and process management. They are able to comprehensively reflect the user's water conservation level, and effectively guide the water- saving practice. Finally, the five typical universities have been evaluated respectively, and the evaluation results can reflect the waterusing level among the total universities objectively, the water-using efficiency of water-using departments and the performance of water-saving measures. The results of this research are of important guiding significance to implement the most stringent water resources management system, and promote the construction of water-saving society.
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    Research on Three Dimensional Spatial Distribution of Soil Salinity in a Typical Field of Lubotan Area
    HAN Ji-chang, LI Xiao-ming, SUN Jian-hong, LI Juan
    2014, 29 (5):  847-854.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2519KB) ( )   Save
    To acquire the spatial distribution information of soil salinity in field scale and to guide the agricultural production, electromagnetic induction (EM) technique was introduced in this paper to measure the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa). The soil salinity in different depth was interpreted by establishing the EM interpretation model of soil salinity. And then, the three dimensional distribution of soil salinity was obtained by spatial analysis. The result indicated, there were good correlations between the soil salinity and ECa (r2 were 0.875, 0.839, 0.851, 0.866, 0.926 and 0.861 in 5 cm, 15 cm, 30 cm, 50 cm, 70 cm and 90 cm depth, respectively), which could benefit quick measurement of soil salinity; the three dimensional distribution of soil salinity contained enough information, it could supply spatial distribution information in any section of the soil solid. The result of precision test indicated, the forcast precision of spatial distribution was higher with 3D research than 2D, and it was more accurate with Kriging than IDW method. Comparing the spatial distribution of soil salinity, it could be found that top accumulation of soil salinity in vertical direction appreared in the areas with higher salt content, which could restrict the agricultural production, and the salinity survey should be continued for promoting the sustainable use of the land.
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    Resources Research Methods
    PEST-based Multi-objective Automatic Calibration of Hydrologic Parameters for HSPF Model
    GAOWei, ZHOU Feng, DONG Yan-jun, GUO Huai-cheng, PENG Jun-tai, XU Peng, ZHAO Lei
    2014, 29 (5):  855-867.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (8499KB) ( )   Save
    Parameter calibration is one of the most important steps in hydrological modeling. A PEST-based multi-objective automatic calibration approach (PEST-HSPF) is proposed specially for Hydrological Simulation Program- Fortran (HSPF) model. The proposed approach consists of five steps: 1) the development of HSPF model framework including wdm and uci files, 2) the generation of time-series preprocess file (tsproc.dat) to transform the HSPF's output to ASCII format, 3) the preparison of parameter file (model.tpl) to adjust model parameter values of HSPF after repeating interations, 4) the setup of PEST's coeffients to generate model.ins and model.pst, and 5) the running of PEST to determine the optimal set of parameters when the discrepancies between the pertinent model-generated numbers and the corresponding measurements are reduced to minimum. Additionally, squared error of daily flows, monthly flows and exceedence times for flow (1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) are suggested to be objective functions, and the weighting functions are assigned to each subobjective function to ensure that the contributions of each to the multiple-objective functions were almost equal. A realworld case study is then conducted for Zhonghe Subwatershed of Lake Dianchi Watershed, which is applied to illustrate its advantages in predictive accuracy over manual and single-objective methods. The results indicate that: 1) ten types of sensitive parameters were automatically calibrated after 734 running of PEST-HSPF, leading to the significant decrease of the error of objective functions to be 45.4% of that at initial stage; therefore, PEST- HSPF results using squared error of daily flows, monthly volumes and flow exceedances weighted by reciprocal of their initial values performed better with respect to goodness-of-fit measures than manual and single-objective results, for example, the R2, NSE and index of agreement of daily flows calibration were 0.75, 0.74 and 0.93. 2) Manual method assisted by HSPEXP satisfied total volumes and yearly trend, but cannot capture the small- scale hydrological processes; for example, the R2, NSE and index of agreement of daily flows calibration were only 0.45, 0.24 and 0.80; 3) PEST-HSPF with multi-objective functions could not only balance the contribution for three objective functions, but also accurately acquire daily/monthly volumes, temporal trend, regional variations, and specific flows at different exceedance fractions over calibration and verification periods. Although the PEST-HSPF with single-objective function was superior to manual method assisted by HSPEXP, it just focused on the minimization of one type of errors within calibration process. For example, the R2, NSE and index of agreement of the PEST-HSPF only with exceedence times for flow were only 0.61, 0.54 and 0.80. However, further research is necessary to understand how to select the parameters, objective functions and the associated weights, since there is currently no guidance available for the use of PEST-HSPF in more applications in watershed modeling. Considering the positive performance reported in this research and the many possible applications of this automatic calibration method, PEST-HSPF offers a new frontier for improving the field of watershed modeling.
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    Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Based on Γ-Type Distribution Function
    WANG Jia-yang, LI Zuo-yong, YU Jing
    2014, 29 (5):  868-874.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (578KB) ( )   Save
    Correct evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity has practical significance not only to the efficient and reasonable utilization of the water resources but also to the sustainable development of regional socio-economy. Γ-type distribution curve was adopted to simulate water resources carrying capacity evaluation. A universal Γ-type distribution function for water resources carrying capacity evaluation was proposed based on the selected reference value of all indicators and the appropriate standardization transformation formula. The universal Γ- type distribution function can ignore the influence of index number by means of normalization data processing mode. Particle swarm optimization was used in optimization of the parameters in the formula. The optimized Γ- type distribution function was used in water resources carrying capacity evaluation of the Manas River Valley and the Tarim River Basin. Results of the two cases agreed with that of other evaluation methods, and showed that the formula was not restricted by the number of the evaluation indexes and by the differences of the index system. The evaluation method can save the complex programming calculation work and provided a new approach to the evaluation model which is universal and simplified. In the practical evaluation, even water resources carrying capacity index system of testing sample was different from the index system in the article, the Γ-type distribution function can also evaluate it directly by means of normalization data processing mode.
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    Application of Seasonal Index Self-memory Grey Model in Simulation and Prediction of Precipitation in Haihe River Basin
    YANG Zhi-yong, YUAN Zhe, YIN Jun, YUAN Yong
    2014, 29 (5):  875-884.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (5033KB) ( )   Save
    The accurate simulation and prediction of precipitation is beneficial to risk control of drought and flood and management of water resources. Time series analysis method is playing an important role in hydrologic regular analysis and hydrologic simulation as well as hydrologic forecasting and so on. Compared with the distributed hydrological model, the uncertainty methods such as Grey Theory have less parameter to be calibrated and requirements of data are less strict. However, the precipitation simulated and predicted by traditional grey model tends to be the average when the time series fluctuates drastically and the results are usually not acceptable. The study improved the grey model in input and structure with the smooth processing and self- memory theory and built the Seasonal Index Self- memory Grey Model (SS-GM). Based on the GM(1,1) which was used as the core of dynamic and the equation of self-memory, the parameters of the SS-GM were calculated by the method of least squares. The model was applied to the simulation and prediction of precipitation in Haihe River Basin, the results showed that: 1) compared with the traditional grey model, the model performed much better with both the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and determination coefficient (R2) more than 0.6 in the sub-basins and ones were more than 0.7 in most parts of the basin in simulation of annual precipitation. The model was suited for the simulation at large spatial and temporal scales as the NSE and R2 were more than 0.75 in the whole Haihe River Basin in simulation of annual precipitation. 2) The model was applicable to predicting the precipitation during the future one or two months as NSE was above 0.5 (the NSE in most parts was more than 0.6), but the model performed badly when it was used to predict the precipitation during the future three or four months. 3) The SS-GM was simple and easy to be calculated. The result predicted by the model can reflect the characteristics of precipitation and prediction can be more accurate by the rotational correction with the update precipitation.
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    Application Research on Combined Models Based on Wavelet Analysis in Prediction of Daily Runoff
    WANG Xiu-jie, FENG Gui-min, GENG Qing-zhu
    2014, 29 (5):  885-893.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.016
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3617KB) ( )   Save
    In the process of development and utilization of water resources, real-time and accurate daily runoff forecast plays an important role in the fields such as disaster reduction, flood control and other aspects. The process of the daily runoff time series is jammed increasingly by human activities. By the multi-resolution performance of wavelet analyis, the daily runoff time series are decomposed into the low frequency and the high frequency parts with which autogressive models are built seperately. These models are combined to predict separately the daily runoff time series of Toudaoguai station and Huayuankou station along the Yellow River in three periods of from 1966 to 1968, from 1969 to 1986 and from1987 to 2005. Compared with the single model gained by the original daily runoff time series, the prediction precision of the combined models based on wavelet analysis is increased obviously. The prediction precisions of three periods are consistent basically. Their prediction pass rates are more than 90% and predicative values can be used in practice. But the prediction precisions of the single model vary largely in three periods. With the aggravation of the human activities, the prediction errors increase accordingly. The prediction pass rates of Huayuankou station don't meet 85.0% in two periods from 1969 to 1986 and from 1987 to 2005. Their predicative results can only be referenced. So it is thought that the combined model based on wavelet analysis is more anti-jamming and has more significant superiority in runoff prediction.
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    Comprehensive Discussion
    Research Progress and Enlightenment of Tourism Socio-Ecological System Resilience in Foreign Countries
    WANG Qun, LU Lin, YANG Xing-zhu
    2014, 29 (5):  894-908.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.05.017
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1031KB) ( )   Save
    Resilience thinking and method are applied to socio-ecological system, providing a fresh and useful way to explore global sustainable development. Sustainable tourism is an important part of global sustainable development and tourism destination also is an important socio-ecological system. Therefore, resilience theory can better explain the complexity, dynamic and synthesis of tourism destination. It has become an important way to study the tourism sustainable development. It is conducive to better understand the changing relationship between tourism and environment. Based on a large number of foreign studies on socioecological system resilience, this article provides an overview of the related theories and summarizes the scale, the object, the methods and the contents on resilience. Scales in these case studies include large, medium and small scales. The objects are divided into two categories, one is for different types of tourist destinations, such as protected areas, national parks, etc., and the other is the key factors and interference factors of socio-ecological system of tourism destinations, such as communities, stakeholders, and other sudden events. In research methods, currently studies use sociological survey methods, statistical methods, mathematical modeling and GIS and remote sensing, etc. In research contents, studies focused on the understanding tourism socio-ecological system, analyzing relationship between resilience and other concepts, identifying the threshold and driving factors, building the conceptual model and quantitative assessment, adaptive management, and so on. Foreign scholars currently have reached a consensus on tourism socio-ecological system. First, tourism should be included in socio-ecological system. Second, resilience thinking and methods are suitable for tourism socio-ecological system research. At the same time, there are indiscriminate use, such as resilience, sustainability, vulnerability and sensitivity, etc. Therefore, we suggest some future study for better understanding tourism socio-ecological system resilience. There are still critical questions to be solved in the future.
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