Table of Content

    20 August 2013, Volume 28 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Resources Utilization and Management
    Developing Level of Old Industrial Cities and Decline Mechanism
    WANG Cheng-jin, WANG Wei
    2013, 28 (8):  1275-1288.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2207KB) ( )   Save
    Since the mid 18th century, the continuous construction and development of China’s industry had fostered many industrial bases or industrial cities. During the developing process of market economic since the 1980s, China’s industrial cities showed different trends, many old industrial cities declined obviously and became the problem regions. In this paper, based on the elaboration of the conception of old industrial city, we design the major indexes and auxiliary index, and apply the data in 1985 to identify and discuss the spatial pattern. The result shows that China has 100 old industrial cities and they concentrate mainly in the regions of "Nuruer Tiger Mountain→the Great Wall→the Yellow River→Funiu Mountain→Daba Mountains, Wuling Mountain→the Yangtze River". Then, the quadrant model and the ratio of industrial value and GDP in 1985-1986 and 2008-2009 are applied to analyze the industrial role and comprehensive urban benefit, and estimate their developing status. The results show the old industrial cities are divided into four types, the increasing-developing type includes 23 cities, the decreasing-developing cities reach 26, and 46 cities declined obviously with backward urban economic development, but only 5 cities belong to the increasing-lagged type. Meanwhile, we probe the declining mechanism of old industrial cities from the viewpoints of super-large industrial projects, industrial structure, national enterprises and institutions. These cities have close relationship with 156 super-large projects under USSR’s help, 2ed Five-Year Plan and "Three Lines" construction, these projects chiefly developed resources exploitation, raw material and equipment manufacturing industries. Another important factor is that these old industrial cities are locked in the specific industrial technology, equipment and production, and have the low capacity to innovate. Furthermore, the predominance of super-large national enterprises determines they are locked in the planned-economic institution and have the low adaptable ability to the market economy.
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    Quantification of Virtual Land Resources in China’s Crop Trade
    QIANG Wen-li, LIU Ai-min, CHENG Sheng-kui, XIE Gao-di, ZHAO Ming-yang
    2013, 28 (8):  1289-1297.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (865KB) ( )   Save
    The liberalization has greatly accelerated the volume of international trade of agricultural products in past decades. International trade has become increasingly important in connecting areas with resource surplus and deficit. Trade in agricultural commodities is ultimately an exchange of services and resources incorporated into the traded goods. Resources flow and the associated ecological impacts have been a hotspot in agricultural trade and environment study. This paper attempts to contribute to both the calculation method of the virtual land use and China’s virtual land quantification of crop trade. It aims to: 1) explore the method to quantify the virtual land hidden in agricultural trade flows. The conversion factors have been used to calculate the processed products based on the caloric equivalent method and the product tree method. 2) The virtual land use hidden in the imports and exports of China’s crop trade was measured, considering both primary products and their processed products trade with other countries in 1986-2009, from both the producer and consumer’s perspective to illustrate the results more clearly. The results show that China’s crop products import has increased greatly during 1986-2009, the virtual land use hidden in international trade has increased from -442.6×104 hm2 in 1986 to 2 889.0×104 hm2 in 2009, the changing trend and the quantity varied between different categories, the main category of the virtual land use has changed from cereal crops to the oil crops, which take 88.0% of the whole virtual land use in 2009, soybean takes the major weight of the oil crops import; the geographic location of the virtual land use has changed from the North America to the South America, the North America and the Southeast Asia; the crop trade between China and other countries releases China’s land use pressure, but the socio-economic and environmental impact of the virtual land also need to be assessed in order to make the virtual land use sustainable.
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    Regional Differentiation Research on Net Carbon Effect of Agricultural Production in China
    TIAN Yun, ZHANG Jun-biao
    2013, 28 (8):  1298-1309.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1456KB) ( )   Save
    Agriculture has double effects of carbon emission and carbon sink. The analysis of net carbon effect of every province is important prerequisites for in-depth studying of agricultural production carbon emission. With such a view, this study calculates the amount of carbon emissions and carbon sink from 1995 to 2010 and that of 31 provinces in 2010, based on the agricultural resources inputs, paddy fields, soil and breeding livestock of 23 categories on the major carbon sources with rice and wheat as the representative of the 15 categories of major crops carbon sink species. On the basis of the above the net carbon sink is concluded. The results showed that: 1)The overall net carbon sink of agricultural production maintains an upward trend from 267.3613 million ton in 1995 to 376.9719 million ton in 2010 with an average annual increasing rate of 2.32%. Carbon emissions increased from 249.5239 million ton in 1995 to 291.1691 million ton in 2010 with an average annual increasing rate of 1.05%; and carbon sink rises from 516.8851 million ton in 1995 to 668.1410 million ton in 2010 with an average annual increasing rate of 1.73%. From the above fact the growth rate of carbon sink is significantly faster than that of carbon emission. This indicates that China has gained certain achievement in agricultural energy reduction. Additionally, it shows "up-down-up" phase-change characteristics. 2) Compared horizonally, the regional difference of net carbon effect is obvious: in the absolute amount of net carbon sink of agricultural production, the top 10 regions accounted for 73.02% of the national overall net carbon sink of agricultural production while that of the last 10 regions was only 1.59%. The level of carbon sinks on agricultural production in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Guangxi come to the top three of 410.81%, 400.94% and 356.79% respectively; Tibet, Qinghai and Fujian are the last three with only 25.57%, 41.55% and 103.80%; among which 12 regions including Jilin are higher than the national average level during the same period (229.47%).
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    Resources Ecology
    The Study on Quantitative Standard of Eco-compensation under Major Function-oriented Zone Planning and Opportunity Cost
    DAI Ming, LIU Yan-ni, CHEN Luo-jun
    2013, 28 (8):  1310-1317.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (889KB) ( )   Save
    To ensure the implementation of the major function-oriented zone planning at the national, provincial, municipal and county levels, it is important to guarantee the specific regions which have been restricted or prohibited developing(mainly for industry) get the basic economic compensation that can make up for the opportunity cost. So, based on the actual situation of local economic and social development, considering the two kinds of situation that one is weak in industrial base and the other is relatively strong in industrial foundation, we select the GDP, industrial output, employment and investment in fixed assets as variabs. Through principal component analysis and standardization of the data, we use SPSS to make a regression analysis, and then establish the measurement model between ecological compensation standard and opportunity cost. Taking Fogang for example, the paper gets the amount of ecological compensation that the specific regions are supposed to receive the positioning arrangement after decelerating industrial development. The research shows that the smooth implementation of the national major function-oriented zone planning depends on if the ecological compensation can be put into effect successfully, while the accurate quantification of ecological compensation is the key.
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    Social Capital and Cross-Village Environmental Impact: Based on Village Investigation Data in Gansu Province
    ZHAO Xue-yan
    2013, 28 (8):  1318-1327.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (985KB) ( )   Save
    Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development,as the necessary prerequisite to improve environment, it has attracted increasing interests. Now, we should clarify the relationship between social capital and environmental impact in order to find out countermeasures to solve the complex environmental problems. In the paper, the ecological footprint was taken as the index of the environmental impact, social capital was measured by social net, general trust, institution trust and norm, based on investigation data of 20 villages in Gansu Province, using the econometric model to analyze the village-level relationship between social capital and environmental impact. The results indicate: 1)Social capital diversity can help explain the cross-village environmental impact diversity, after introducing the social capital index, the model’s goodness of fit (R2) increased by 0.007-0.09. 2) Both the relationship between the general trust and environmental impact and that between the institutional trust and environmental impact are positively correlated significantly, with regression coefficient being 0.995 and 0.719, respectively. That is to say, although improving the general trust and the institutional trust will enhance the environmental impact, yet the change speed of the environmental impact caused by them is inferior to that of themselves. 3) The relationship between the norm dimension and environmental impact is negatively correlated significantly, the regression coefficient is-0.463. In other words, improving the norm will slow down the environmental impact, but the reducing speed of the environmental impact caused by it is inferior to that of itself. The relationship between the social net dimension and environmental impact shows a positive correlation, but it is insignificant in the model. 4) Increasing the rural labour’ educational attainment and enhancing the non-agriculture employment level will slow down the environmental impact. The relationship between population quantity and environmental impact is a positive correlation, but it is insignificant in many models. Finally, it points out the further concerned problems in the research of the function of social capital on environmental impact.
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    Relationship between Foliar δ13C and Environmental Factors and Foliar C and N Contents of Aleurites montana in Fujian Province
    LIN Han, CHEN Hui, WU Cheng-zhen, HONG Tao, CHEN Can, CHEN Jian-zhong, LIU Jian-bin, XIAO Ying-zhong
    2013, 28 (8):  1328-1336.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (994KB) ( )   Save
    Aleurites montana from six different sites were taken as "target" plants and planted in a chosen site with the same treatments. The foliar carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) and discrimination (△13C) traits, the site differences in δ13C and △13C, and the effects of environment and growth on foliar δ13C were analyzed by determining the foliar δ13C and △13C values. The results showed that the foliar δ13C values of different A.montana provenances ranged from -26.06‰~-24.46‰, with the average value of -25.54‰. Putian, Shunchang and Shaxian provenances had higher δ13C values. The foliar δ13C was not closely correlated with longitude and latitude, but significantly positively correlated with annual mean temperature (AMT) and negatively correlated with annual mean precipitation (AMP). Therefore, the foliar δ13C of A.montana is greatly influenced by environmental factors, among which AMT and AMP are essential factors contributing to the differences in foliar δ13C. The foliar δ13C showed a second-degree parabola correlation with the foliar N content and C/N. Based on foliar δ13C values, the water use efficiency (WUE) of Putian, Shunchang and Shaxian provenances were relatively high. In silviculture practice, the A.montana from Putian, Shunchang and Shaxian provenances were recommended to be planted in semi-arid and nutrient-deficient sites as pioneer trees, helping to enhance the nutrient returning and improve the soil fertility. On the other hand, with lower foliar δ13C values, the A.montana from Zhenghe, Youxi and Jianyang provenances were suggested to be planted in moist sites so as to fully exert the water taken capacity and improve the growth.
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    Resources Evaluation
    Comparison among Several Drought Indices in the Yellow River Valley
    WANG Jin-song, LI Yi-ping, REN Yu-long, LIU Yuan-pu
    2013, 28 (8):  1337-1349.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3327KB) ( )   Save
    In order to realize the applicability of common drought indices, the application situation of several drought indices in the Yellow River Valley is analyzed by using monthly precipitation, temperature and evaporation data of 145 stations in the valley from 1961 to 2010. These indices include comprehensive index (CI) of meteorological drought, standardized precipitation index (SPI), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), precipitation anomaly percent (Pa) and K drought index. The results show that K drought index and CI of meteorological drought can get the best monitoring effect for the real drought for the past 50 years when making comparisons among these five drought indices, then followed by SPI, Pa and PDSI. When comparing CI with K drought index, we found that CI can monitor drought with a weaker effect to the real drought, so it could leave out some heavy drought processes in the research area, and K drought index can monitor drought with a heavier effect for some regions such as Qinghai, middle and west Inner Mongolia, at the same time, it could leave out some heavy drought processes in summer and autumn in Henan. In summary, K drought index has the best monitoring effect in the Yellow River Valley, the monitoring effect of K drought index can best reflect the conditions of real drought except for using it in summer and autumn of Henan and winter of Inner Mongolia, for under such conditions it was suggested to use CI; the monitoring effect of K drought index and CI both fit well for summer in Inner Mongolia, so these two indices can be combined to monitor drought in this region; K and Pa can be used together to monitor drought in winter of Shandong, but Pa is suitable for drought monitoring in summer of Shandong; and it is suggested to use SPI for all seasons in Qinghai.
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    Hydrologic Type Regions Delineation of Haihe River Basin Based on Remote Sensing Data of Underlying Surface Cover
    FENG Ping, WEI Zhao-zhen, LI Jian-zhu
    2013, 28 (8):  1350-1360.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3981KB) ( )   Save
    Taking the Haihe River Basin as the study area, based on the annual rainfall and water surface evaporation data of 1956-2005, digital elevation model and the remote sensing data of land use, soil and vegetation cover, the physical factors which reflect underlying surface conditions and climate characteristics were extracted in geographic information system(GIS), and then the underlying surface conditions and climate characteristics were taken as the regionalization indexes. Using GIS and multivariate statistical analyses, 1399 sub-basins of the Haihe River Basin were assigned to 7 hydrologic type regions(HTR) according to their similarities and differences of underlying surface conditions and climate factors. We also analyzed the spatial distribution and hydrological characteristics of each region. HTR1, HTR2 and HTR4 are located in plain area where the main land use type is cultivated land, and other HTRs are located in mountainous and hilly regions. The area proportion of agricultural land in HTR1 is the largest; the soil permeability of HTR2 is the worst and surface runoff over infiltration is easily generated; the soil permeability of HTR3 is the best, and subsurface runoff and interflow are more expected to happen; HTR4 has lager annual evaporation, smaller annual rainfall, and the driest climate; the main land use type of HTR5 and HTR6 is grassland and forestland respectively; HTR7 has smaller annual evaporation, larger annual rainfall, and the wettest climate. The result of hydrologic type regions delineation is very anastomotic with the landforms of watershed, explicitly reflects the underlying surface and climate factors, and reflects the distribution regularities of basin’s hydrologic characteristics. Then the result was verified to be accurate and rational by analyzing the underlying surface and climate factors of typical watersheds in hydrologic type regions, and it could provide fundamental basis for water resources assessment and study of hydrologic characteristics in the Haihe River Basin.
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    Impact of Climate Warming on the Distribution of Thermal Resources in the Lower-middle Reaches of the Changjiang River
    ZHANG Li-bo, LOU Wei-ping
    2013, 28 (8):  1361-1372.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.009
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    Based on the daily average air temperature data from 90 meteorological stations in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River from 1960 to 2010, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃, their lasting days, the beginning and ending date over recent 51 years were identified by using linear trend estimation, so as to find out the impact of climate warming on the distribution of thermal resources in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River. The results showed that the air temperature increased continuously in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River, and the regression coefficient of annual average air temperature was 0.21 ℃/10 a, the trend coefficient was 0.63(P<0.001), a slight lower than China during the same period, and it was well correlated with the other thermal resources indexes(P<0.05). The lasting days steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased generally in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River along with climate warming, the accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased significantly during the same period. The widespread increase of the accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ and their lasting days was influenced by the beginning date advancing and the ending date delaying. Furthermore the influence of the beginning date advancing was more obvious than that of the ending date delaying. The north subtropical zone and middle subtropical zone have moved greatly northward in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River since the 2000s, the northern boundary of north subtropical zone has moved out of the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River before the 1990s, the northern boundary of middle subtropical zone moved to near 32°N, i. e., 2-3 degrees of latitude northward, compared to the period 1960-1999. The northern limits of the three-cropping systems and the cultivable areas for double harvest rice moved northward obviously after the 1990s, and the mean movement magnitude was bigger than two latitude distance in comparison with the 1960s.
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    Cropland Dynamics and Its Influence on the Productivity in Recent 20 Years in Northern Shaanxi, China
    LIU Wen-chao, YAN Chang-zhen, QIN Yuan-wei, YAN Hui-min, LIU Ji-yuan
    2013, 28 (8):  1373-1382.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (4955KB) ( )   Save
    Cropland reclamation and ecological protection and construction programs in Northern Shaanxi, China, have significant impact on the spatial distribution patterns of cropland and its productivity. In this paper, cropland dynamics from medium and high resolution remote sensing images (Landsat TM/ETM+) of recent 20 years (from the end of the 1980s to 2010) were generated by image interpretation. Furthermore, by using GLO-PEM model and AGRO-VPM model, with medium resolution and long time series of remote sensing dataset (AVHRR/MODIS), Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and its change on cropland were accounted. Finally, the response of cropland change to productivity was analyzed. The result shows that during the former decade of the research period, cropland area and its productivity in Northern Shaanxi experienced a small fillip, while in the latter decade both area and NPP were significantly reduced. The main cause for cropland decrease was the implementation of the Grain for Green Program. Besides, urbanization was also a key factor. Overall, in the past 20 years, the total area of cropland in Northern Shaanxi decreased by 42.56%, and cropland NPP dropped by 41.90% over the same period. This study is of great importance to the assessment of regional cropland security and food security, and also the planning of regional land use scientifically.
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    Characteristics, Hotspots and Influencing Factors of Wetland Change in Huaihe River Basin
    XU Li-li, WAN Yun, SHENG Sheng, WEN Teng, XU Chi, AN Shu-qing
    2013, 28 (8):  1383-1394.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (13492KB) ( )   Save
    Using Landsat remote sensing data, we study the size change of each wetland type in Huaihe River Basin from 1995 to 2007 quantitatively and analyze the characteristics of wetland change. Then we identify the hotspots of wetland change using neighborhood analysis and study the influencing factors of spatial differentiation of wetland change hotspots by constructing Logistic regression model. Results show a remarkable increase in artificial wetlands (including paddy fields, reservoir and ponds), but a distinct decrease of natural wetlands (mainly referring to swamps and lakes) during the research period. Increase amount of paddy fields and reservoir ponds are 10296.05 km2 and 2796.45 km2, which account for 16.81% and 4.57% of the total wetland area of the Huaihe River Basin and 3.82% and 1.04% of the whole basin area in 1995 respectively. Decrease amount of lakes and swamps are 648.22km2 and 1705.97 km2, which account for 1.06% and 2.79% of the total wetland area of the Huaihe River Basin and 0.24% and 0.63% of the whole basin area in 1995 respectively. The decreased swamps and lakes are principally converted to artificial wetlands. Hotspots of wetland change are mostly distributed in the eastern and southern part of Huaihe River Basin. And hotspots of artificial wetlands change exhibit a more concentrated and continuous distribution, but that of natural wetlands are sparser and more disperse. Among all natural and geographical influencing factors, elevation and temperature have relatively higher impacts on the occurrence of artificial wetlands increase hotspots and natural wetlands decrease hotspots. And there is a high incidence of wetland change hotspots in areas which have relatively higher temperature and are lower lying. Moreover, wetland change hotspots are also inclined to occur in areas having relatively lower precipitation. Socio-economic factors and transport accessibility play a significant but less important role in hotspots occurrence. For the socio-economic influencing factors, artificial wetland increase hotspots are prone to occur in areas which have higher economic output value, while natural wetland decrease hotspots are apt to distribute in areas which have lower economic output value. As for transport accessibility, artificial wetland increase hotspots mostly occur in the area far from the high grade road and close to residential area, and natural wetland change hotspots mainly occur in the area far from the residential area. In Huaihe River Basin, the hotspots occurrence of wetland change is affected by the coupling effect of multiple factors, but the restriction effect of physicographica background is the primary factor leading to spatial differentiation of wetland change hotspots.
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    Resources Research Methods
    A Study on Land Utilization Decision Making Based on WNN Model
    HAN Lu, XIE Jun-qi
    2013, 28 (8):  1395-1403.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1615KB) ( )   Save
    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the land utilization decision making based on WNN model in the three needs of agricultural production, construction and development, and ecological protection, which can provide references for sustainable use of land resources and ensuring the coordinated development with economic benefits, social benefits and ecological benefits. Method of wavelet neural network (WNN) model was employed. The results indicate that the WNN model of land utilization was built by using the data of the Second National Land Survey in Yuzhong basin, which has obtained different types of land utilization in the three needs: 1) in agricultural production needs, Jinya is in a semi-intensive used state, Chengguan, Xiaguanying, Dingyuan and Xiaogangying are in a semi-extensive used state, and Heping and Lianda are in an extensive used state. The land input-output ratio in the agricultural production needs is uncoordinated. 2) Land utilization type for the construction and development needs in Yuzhong basin is in an extensive transition used state. Jinya is in a semi-intensive used state, Heping, Dingyuan and Lianda are in a semi-extensive used state, Chengguan and Xiaguanying are in an extensive used state. A good proportion of the land input-output in the construction and development needs hasn’t been achieved. 3) In ecological protection needs, land utilization in Yuzhong basin is in a semi-extensive and extensive used state. Heping, Dingyuan, Lianda and Jinya are in a semi-extensive used state, meanwhile, Chengguan and Xiaguanying are in an extensive transition used state. The conclusions are as follows: 1)the needs of different conditions and efficiency must be considered in the study of land utilization decision making. And then, decision-making analysis is made for different land use types for achieving the optimal allocation and sustainable use of land resources, improving land use and management level, and ensuring the coordinated development with economic benefits, social benefits and ecological benefits; 2) WNN model is more scientific and operational to the study of land utilization decision making.
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    Improvement and Applications of SWAT Model in the Upper-middle Heihe River Basin
    LAI Zheng-qing, LI Shuo, LI Cheng-gang, NAN Zhuo-tong, YU Wen-jun
    2013, 28 (8):  1404-1413.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2839KB) ( )   Save
    Heihe river basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin in China, and it also is a typical water shortage region. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to simulate the monthly average runoff in the upper and middle reaches of HRB from 2000 to 2009. The results show that the SWAT model can simulate the runoff processes well in the upper reaches of HRB. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (ENS) and coefficient of determination (R2) during the calibration period of 2005 to 2009 were 0.81 and 0.85, respectively. But the monthly runoff in the middle reaches of HRB was underestimated in winter. The complex topography and high intensity repeated groundwater irrigation-infiltration-replenishment in the middle reaches of HRB are suggested to be the primary cause. Based on the analyses of hydrological situation in middle reaches of HRB, a empirical method was proposed to simulate the runoff process by increasing the soil water infiltration of the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of monthly average runoff simulation for middle reach of HRB during the calibration period increased from 0.53 to 0.70 and 0.61 to 0.75 after the modification of the SWAT model. The results indicated that the simulation of the irrigation processes was important to study the water resource management and the water cycle processes in the middle reaches of HRB.
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    The Applicability Analysis of TRMM Precipitation Data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin
    LU Yang, YANG Sheng-tian, CAI Ming-yong, ZHOU Qiu-wen, DONG Guo-tao
    2013, 28 (8):  1414-1425.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3031KB) ( )   Save
    The Yarlung Zangbo River is a trans-boundary river of crucial importance to China with great potentiality in hydropower resources. However, the precipitation gauge stations are dramatically sparse in this basin due to high elevation, complex topography and severe climate, especially in the western part of the basin. Precipitation estimation from satellites provides potential alternatives in precipitation measurements in regions where conventional precipitation gauges are not readily available. In this study, the performance of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) monthly and daily precipitation data over 1998-2010 were evaluated in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin with rain gauges from 16 meteorological stations. The evaluation revealed strong correlation and little numerical biases between TRMM monthly precipitation data and rain gauges in general, while the correlation coefficient in Bomi station was comparatively lower and the biases in Jiangzi station and Nanmulin station were comparatively higher. While on the daily basis, the correlation between TRMM precipitation and rain gauges is relatively weak. On the basis of the evaluation, the spatial and temporal patterns of the average annual and monthly precipitation over the basin were analyzed with TRMM monthly precipitation data. There is an increasing trend from west to east and strong spatial variability in the average annual precipitation. Precipitation peaks in July and most of the total annual precipitation occur during June to September. Precipitation hardly occurs during December to February next year.
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    Emergency Reserved Water Demand Estimation for Public Events of Accidental Water Source Pollution
    ZHOU Ye, WU Feng-ping, CHEN Yan-ping
    2013, 28 (8):  1426-1437.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1191KB) ( )   Save
    It is inevitable that there is unconventional water demand under different emergencies with the development of economy and society, so certain emergency reserved water should be allocated in initial water right allocation. Emergency reserved water demand estimation is the premise and basis for emergency reserved water allocation. According to the particularity of emergency reserved water demand, the combination method of case-based reasoning and quota method is built based on risk analysis. Eighteen risk paths of accidental water source pollution are got by fault tree method and taken as characteristic attributes for case-based reasoning to calculate downtimes of water supply, and then emergency reserved water is estimated with quota standard. Finally, the model is applied to Dahuofang reservoir in Liaoning Province. The estimation method provides basis and model support for emergency reserved water allocation and preservation.
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    Special Forum
    The Origin of Resources Property Rights and Moral: An Interpretation of Evolutionary Game Theory
    CHEN An-ning, ZHU Zhe
    2013, 28 (8):  1438-1450.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.016
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1859KB) ( )   Save
    This article will investigate how resources property rights and moral emerge spontaneously. First it will review the history of property rights briefly, introduce the applied Game Theory, especially the recent research about the emergency of property rights through Evolutionary Game Theory. Then it will point out its deficiency which is too ambiguous about the socio-economic meaning of pay-off to reveal the process of interaction and co-evolution between the Game and its environment. Second, it will expand the concept of fitness from the biological genetics to the analysis of the social evolution; and analyze the constitution of socio-economic fitness which is related to its type of competition. Third, it will introduce the condition equation into the traditional Replicator Dynamic Equation, to explain the interaction between Behavior Game and environment of the Game. Fourth, it will investigate how property rights and moral emerge spontaneously through improved Replicator Dynamic Equation, and point out that both property rights and moral were just the result of human’s intemperate battle and non-restraint multiplication. Finally, it will analyze three deficienies of Locker’s society, and its power to evolve continuously.
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    Research on River Sand Attributes and Rights Arrangement
    WANG Zhuo-fu, YANG Zhi-yong, WANG Dao-guan, ZHANG Kun
    2013, 28 (8):  1451-1458.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.08.017
    Abstract ( )   PDF (956KB) ( )   Save
    In China, river sand is gradually becoming the scarce resource. However, due to lack of relevant normative documents and rights arrangement research concerning sand-excavating management, the disorder of sand excavation management is becoming more and more serious. Apart from this, the stability of river and dike safety is also seriously threatened. This paper is aimed at discussing the river sand’s double attributes, the system of river sand-excavating as well as the differences in the process of managing the river sand under the two attributes. It analyzes the current situation and the existing problems concerning the river sand rights arrangement and summarizes the implementation effect of "Yangtze River channel sand excavation management regulation" promulgated by the State Council. On this basis, the paper further analyzes objective requirement and basic principles of river sand excavation rights arrangement and puts forward the institutional framework of it, which includes, the right of disposition of the river sand excavation must be given to the corresponding river management authorities; the river sand excavation management should implement the Chief Executive Responsibility System; the profit right of the river sand excavation in principle should be owned jointly by the county and municipal governments along the river; and the income distribution plan should be attributed primarily to the corresponding river management authorities.
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