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Table of Content

    20 August 2012, Volume 27 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Grazing, the Basic Form of Grassland Ecosystem and Its Transformation
    REN Ji-zhou
    2012, 27 (8):  1259-1275.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (5901KB) ( )   Save
    Grazing is the basic measure of land management both at home and abroad,and the grazing land covers more than a half of the global terrestrial sphere. Restrained by the traditional agrarian culture,there are many misunderstandings of grazing management system in China and it was regarded as a main cause for ecological deterioration,poverty and cultural retardation in pastoral areas so prohibition of grazing was a popular phenomenon. Actually,the current problems of China’s grassland are not originated in grazing itself,but the misconception and deficiencies in grazing management,which breaks up the relationships among human beings,grassland and livestock. Historical evidences have witnessed the great contribution made by grazing to mankind. With technological and social development grazing has experienced three stages: the primary nomadic,the transformation grazing and the modern grazing,and some Western countries have completed the modern transformation of grazing system in the 1930s. The core of modernization of grazing model is the rotational grazing based on a system unit of inhabitants,grassland and livestock. The rotational grazing is an open agricultural technical system with various sub-models to adapt to various agricultural systems and to meet the requirements of ecology and production,so it is significant progress of grassland grazing management. To secure the dual ecological and the economic benefits of grassland ecosystem,China’s animal husbandry should accelerate its modern transformation in terms of grazing and grassland management. It is the necessary approach to modernize its animal husbandry as well as to build up an essence in its modern agriculture.
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    Patterns and Strategies of Glacier Tourism Resources Development in China
    WANG Shi-jin, JIAO Shi-tai, NIU He-wen
    2012, 27 (8):  1276-1285.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2270KB) ( )   Save
    The scale of mountain glacier resources are momentous, the appearance of each of them differs, and they have an absolute monopoly position in the domestic tourism market. However, tourism development of mountain glacier resources is relatively slow, glacier destinations are few, and glacier tourism is not very consistent with abundant glacier resources and has a big gap with overseas glacier tourism development. The attraction of glacier resources is not determined by a single unit of glacier tourism resources, but relies often on the combination characteristics of glacier tourism resources and the surrounding landscapes. In view of these factors, we need to change the single development model of glacier tourism resources in the past to the group development model with glaciers, snow-capped mountains, forests, meadows, lakes, canyons and national culture landscapes at present. Through the group development model, we will expand glacier tourism type and content, extend mountain tourism industrial chain, and enhance the brand value of glacier tourism products in glacier areas in order to provide theoretical and practical support for glacier resource advantages changing to economic advantages in western China. Along with the gradual implementation of the double-track project of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, the planning and design of Sichuan-Tibet and Yunnan-Tibet railways, and the western transport and infrastructure will be further improved and enhanced in the future. In addition, taking the opportunities of implementing inter-provincial or inter-regional cooperation projects (e.g.Silk Road tourist belt, Qinghai-Tibet Rail tourist belt, and Shangri-la ecotourism zone) with rich and unique glacier tourism resources, China will have strong appeal for attracting domestic and foreign tourists to visit, experience and explore.
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    Effect of the Household Bounded Rationality Decision-making about Land Use Behavior:A Case Study for Gaoxigou Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province
    CHEN Shan-shan, CHEN Hai, LIANG Xiao-ying, LIU Jun-xin
    2012, 27 (8):  1286-1295.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2057KB) ( )   Save
    Using the bounded rationality and behavior decision-making mechanism to research human decision-making behavior has become one of the hot-spots in rational diversification of Modern Economics. In this paper, we discussed the influencing factors of peasant household bounded rationality and behavior decision-making in microscopic scale of land use change. A case was studied for Gaoxigou Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province. After establishing the household income expectation model, using 2009-2011 household survey data, the differences between the rational optimal decision and the farmers’actual decision-making were indentified firstly. Then based on bounded rationality idea, using the Probit model which can better reflect the satisfaction of farmer’s decision to explain and analyze these differences and the influential factors. The conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) There is a significant difference between the rational optimal decision and the farmers’actual decision-making in Gaoxigou Village, which can illustrate that household’s bounded rationality plays an important role in decision-making. 2) Constructing 0-1 dummy variable by Probit model can simulate the households behavior of decision-making attitude, and four types of variables are selected to explain the impact on household decision-making. The results revealed that the coefficient of agricultural income is 0.78, the variable that reflected the relative economic decline status is 0.41, the coefficient of the area of grain for green is -0.42, arable land is -0.62, wage income is -0.34, the coefficient of gender is 0.48, and the coefficient of labor is 0.31. All levels show the significant association, and which is in line with the comparison between theoretical predictions and actual research.
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    Influences of Rhizosphere Aeration Supplies on Soil Enzyme Activities for Potted Tomato after Irrigation
    ZHANG Xuan, NIU Wen-quan, JIA Zong-xia
    2012, 27 (8):  1296-1303.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1364KB) ( )   Save
    In order to improve the growth environment of the root zone,we investigate the effects of different water and rhizosphere aeration supplies on soil enzyme activities and tomato growth by using air compressor to supply gas to potted tomato. The results showed that in the tomato growth period the activities of catalase, urease and dehydrogenase showed a trend of decreasing after initial increase. The activities of catalase, urease and dehydrogenase were improved under the aeration treatment compared to non-aeration in different water conditions, while the irrigation level is 80% of the field capacity and the aeration coefficient is 0.8, the activities of three soil enzyme reached the highest value, and the tomato plant has most dry matter accumulation and yield under this combination. The results prove water (80% of field capacity) and aeration (the coefficient is 0.8) can improve potted tomato root zone environment, increase the activity of soil enzyme, promote the plant growth and increase fruit yield.
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    Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Resilience in Lianhua County of Jiangxi Province
    ZHAN Jin-yan, YAN Hai-ming, DENG Xiang-zheng, ZHANG Tao
    2012, 27 (8):  1304-1315.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1947KB) ( )   Save
    Ecosystem resilience is one of the key targets for sustainable development of forest resources and it plays an important role in maintaining the desirable ecosystem states that allow these ecosystem services to be delivered. The quantitative measurement of the forest ecosystem resilience is of great significance to assisting the sustainable development of forest ecosystems, but there have been very few quantitative measurement approaches in previous researches. An approach more plausible is to investigate the factors influencing resilience; with the definition of ecosystem resilience and scale clarified, the authors analyzed influencing factors of forest ecosystem resilience based on previous researches. The index system of forest ecosystem resilience was constructed with 26 indices with respect to the stand condition and ecological memory at the spatial resolution of 100 m. With Lianhua County of Jiangxi Province as the study area, the authors determined the index weights with the combinatorial weighing method and the forest ecosystem resilience was calculated with spatial overlay. The result indicated that the forest ecosystem resilience was mainly influenced by internal ecological memory, the weight of which reached 0.554; forest ecosystem resilience in Lianhua County was between 0.103 and 0.464, with the average value of only 0.268 and the forests above the average level accounting for only 49.2% of the total forest area, so the forest ecosystem resilience was low on the whole. The forest ecosystem resilience was relatively higher in the southern part while relatively lower in the northern part of Lianhua County. The result of the classification of forest ecosystem resilience suggested that only 48.16% of the forests reached the high or very high resilience level in total. The forests in the southern and middle parts were at high or higher level, while the forests in the northern part were generally at median, low or lower levels. In addition, it was a distinct characteristic that the forests with high ecosystem resilience mainly expanded along the boundaries of towns. The result can provide significant scientific reference information for the forest resource management.
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    Impact of Biological Soil Crust on Soil Physical Properties in the Hilly Loess Plateau Region, China
    GAO Li-qian, ZHAO Yun-ge, QIN Ning-qiang, ZHANG Guo-xiu, YANG Kai
    2012, 27 (8):  1316-1326.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1949KB) ( )   Save
    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are ubiquitous living surface covers in many arid and semi-arid regions. It has been demonstrated that the coverage of biocrusts was over 70% in the hilly Loess Plateau region of China and it played many important roles, such as exerting observably impact on soil properties and improving soil antierodibility. But the response of soil physical properties to the development of biocrusts has been unclear so far. The objective of the study was to determine the impact of development of biocrusts (i.e. with variable biomass) on soil physical properties in hilly Loess Plateau region. In this study, soil samples were collected after biocrusts and vegetation coverage survey, and the soil physical properties including soil bulk density, soil porosity, field water holding capacity, cohesion and hardness of biocrusts in different developmental stages were determined. The results showed: 1) Fine particles content increased due to the development of biocrusts. The content of coarse sand decreased by 86% while fine sand increased by 45% with biocrusts developing from cyanobacteria dominated to moss dominated (biomass of moss was 4.31±0.12 g/dm2). 2) With the development of biocrusts, soil bulk density and hardness were reduced while field water holding capacity, soil porosity and cohesion were increased significantly. Along with the development of biocrusts, soil bulk density was dropped by 15%. Soil hardness of biocrusts in later development stage was reduced by 68% compared with the early stage. Field water holding capacity was increased to 57%, adding about 36% compared with the early stage, while soil porosity gone up to 58%, increasing by about 14%. Cohesion of biocrusts was 6 or 7 times as much as that of subsurface soil (0-2 cm). 3) Impact of biocrusts on soil physical properties was closely related to biocrusts’biomass. When biomass of moss in biocrusts was to 2.91±0.12 g/dm2, soil physical properties changed no longer significantly. 4) Soil physical properties not only in the layer of biocrusts, but also in the subsurface soil under the biocrusts were affected by the development of biocrusts. In conclusion, the results of our study suggested that soil physical properties were influenced by the development of biocrusts significantly. The study would likely provide scientific basis for the mechanism of soil antierodibility improvement by biocrusts.
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    The Gradient Effect of Spatial Patterns and Evolution of Settlement in Nature Reserves—A Case Study in Maolan, Guizhou
    LUO Guang-jie, LI Yang-bin, WANG Shi-jie, LUO Xu-qiang
    2012, 27 (8):  1327-1339.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3343KB) ( )   Save
    To study the dynamic status of human activities in nature reserves is of great significance to the construction and management of natural reserves. This study, taking three high-resolution remote sensing images as data source, and using GIS technology and landscape indices quantitative analysis method, analyzes the gradient effect of the space patterns and evolution of settlement (the central place of human activities) in the Maolan National Nature Reserve since 1963. The results show that: 1) In the Nature Reserve, from the core zone to the peripheral zone, the gradient effect of settlement size, grade and shape and its dynamic evolution is obvious. In the core zone of the Nature Reserve, the extent of settlements change has been generally small in the three periods; in the buffer zone of the Nature Reserve, changes of settlements area and shape were obviously different before and after 1987 (the establishment of the Nature Reserve), in the previous stage settlement increased largely and shape was regular, and the settlement area and the space shapes are in steady state after 1987; in the experimental zone, settlements area first decreased and then increased, the number and the degree of irregular shape of settlements have always increased, the spatial variation occurs mainly in smaller, lower-rank settlements; in the peripheral zone, since the establishment of the Nature Reserve, the settlements have expanded significantly, the rank has markedly increased, the shape tends to be irregular. 2) The adverse effects of environment from settlement is small in the core zone of the Nature Reserve, but that cannot be ignored; after establishing of the Nature Reserve, because of human activities being more restricted, human activity has released in the peripheral zone, settlements in the peripheral zone, the proportion that the land of degradation settlements transferring as arable land has largely increased (the rate of the area transferred (R) was 66.66), and the proportion of new settlements (occupied arable land) has reduced. 3) According to the characteristics of the evolution of spatial patterns of settlement and its impact on land cover in different gradient zones, for not affecting the natural environment in the core zone, the future planning and management in the Maolan Nature Reserve should consider to move out the Dongduo settlement. Meanwhile, the management for settlement land should be enhanced in the experimental zone to minimize the adverse effects of human activities on native ecosystems. 4) After the establishment of the Nature Reserve, from the core zone to the peripheral zone, landscape diversity decreased and the land use comprehensive index is closer to 200, the landscape matrix (forest) patches increased significantly and the ecological environment improved obviously. 5) The management of land use and ecological construction within 200-800 m away from the settlement in the buffer zone of the Nature Reserve should be strengthened.
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    Estimating Vegetation Coverage of Typical Degraded Grassland in the Northern Tianshan Mountains
    YANG Feng, LI Jian-long, QIAN Yu-rong, YAN Qi, JIN Guo-ping
    2012, 27 (8):  1340-1348.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1067KB) ( )   Save
    Grassland is one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide, which is also an important composition of terrestrial ecosystem. Grassland degradation is a serious ecological problem in the world. Therefore, monitoring and estimating grassland degradation correctly plays an important role for managing and controlling grassland degradation and desertification. In this study, the monitoring models of grassland degradation were built for monitoring the status of grassland using remote sensing data and vegetation coverage. In addition, the relationships between five vegetation indices (Ratio Vegetation Index, RVI; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI; Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, GNDVI; Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, SAVI; Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, MSAVI) were discussed. The results showed that the correlations between MSAVI, GNDVI and vegetation coverage were better than other vegetation indices. Comparing the regress models between five vegetation indices and vegetation coverage, the models built by MSAVI and GNDVI appeared better effect. The optimum models for monitoring the status of grassland degradation were y=138.45xMSAVI-1.2482 (R2=0.5027, P<0.01) and y=2596.66x2GNDVI-561.54xGNDVI+38.488(R2=0.6053, P<0.01)respectively.
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    Assessment of Soil Erosion Sensitivity and Key Factors Identification in the Wood-Grass Ecotone of Northeast China
    QIAO Zhi, XU Xin-liang
    2012, 27 (8):  1349-1361.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (9161KB) ( )   Save
    Soil erosion is one of the important reasons causing ecological fragility in the wood-grass ecotone of Northeast China. Using GIS technology, and integrating influence of rainfall, terrain, soil erodibility, and vegetation cover, the paper analyzes sensitivity of spatial-temporal variation of soil erosion in the wood-grass ecotone of the study area during the period of 1990-2005. The results show that the soil erosion sensitivity in the wood-grass ecotone is dominated by medium-sensitivity and then light and high sensitivity. In 2005, the area of medium-sensitivity was 370021.36 km2, the areas of light-sensitivity and high-sensitivity were respectively 115544.38 km2 and 38934.25 km2, or being respectively 69.98%, 21.83%, and 7.36%. The medium-sensitivity regions are mainly distributed in the Great Hing’an Mountains, light-sensitivity regions mainly occur in the eastern and western plains, meanwhile the highly-sensitivity regions are mainly distributed in the wood-grass ecotone between Yanshan Mountain and the southern part of the Great Hing’an Mountains. In terms of time sequence, the area of light-sensitivity regions and medium-sensitivity regions increased but that of highly-sensitivity regions had a drop of 54.10%, indicating this eco-environmental situation is getting improvement. By overlapping and ordering method, the paper identifies the key factors and their spatial distribution. The area of land fluctuating degree is the most significant factor in light-sensitivity region accounting for 78.32%, and the vegetation cover is the most significant factor in medium-sensitivity region being 81.17%. It’s worthy noting that the area of rain erosivity is the most significant factor in highly-sensitivity region being 81.07%. So the former two are the key factors affecting soil erosion sensitivity, while the latter, as a trigger affecting soil erosion sensitivity.
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    Study of the Near Surface Wind Shear Daily Variation Characteristics Based on China’s Wind Power Resources Professional Observation Network
    LI Yan, LIANG Hai-he, WANG Shu-dong, ZHOU Qing, GUO Xue-xing, QIAO He
    2012, 27 (8):  1362-1372.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (6702KB) ( )   Save
    The near surface wind shear characteristics were analyzed in this article, using 10 m to 120 m gradient wind observation data from May to October in 2009, which came from China’s wind power resources professional observation network. The results show that: 1) The wind shear near surface presents regular variation trend: with large wind shear index before sunrise and after sunset, and it is gradually dropping with the near surface temperature increasing, and with the lowest shear index when the near surface temperature comes to a peak value, and then, with the sunset and the ground temperature drop, the shear index rising up again, until the next sunrise/sunset period. 2) With different distributions of local sea or lake and land and with different roughness of the underlying surface, the wind shear indexes can be reduced to the following several types: the typical land type, the sea land effect difference type, lake or river land effect difference type, the special differences terrain (canyon) type, shear index partial large type and the special type. 3) It is much more obvious at low level, near 30 m, than the relative high level, between 50 m to 70 m from the wind shear characteristics of the different gradient. So it is instability near the 30 m height in China. In this study, the analysis data sequence is short, and this may become the negative factor reflecting the universality law of the near surface wind shears characteristics in China, but it still becomes an important reference reflecting the near surface different gradient wind shear distributions and variation characteristics of the wind power resources rich area in China. It is expected that this study can provide some technical reference in building wind farm and in using near ground wind power resources in China.
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    The Way of the Survey and Assessment of Copper Tailings Resources and Their Application
    CHEN Jia-bin, LI Rui-jun, YU Liang-hui
    2012, 27 (8):  1373-1381.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (952KB) ( )   Save
    It is of practical significance for surveying and assessing tailings resources. According to the relation of the chosen mineral and the processing mineral and the tailings production, we established the principle of investigating tailings resources, and estimated that the copper tailings resources are about 1.5 billion tons and the content of copper is about 0.077%. At the same time, based on the thought of profit and loss balance, we constructed the economic model for analyzing tailings resources, and estimated that the economic grade is 0.07% for recycling single copper element if the copper price is not less than 35000 yuan per ton, and that makes it possible for making use of part of copper tailings resources at the present time. Resource structure determines the mode of its utilization. Based on the results of investigation and evaluation, it found that the main modes for copper tailings’comprehensive utilization include selecting again and used for mining filling or building materials in the future in China. According to the model, in order to further promote copper tailings resources development and utilization, it is not only necessary to release related information about tailings resource, but also necessary to work out a series of favorable policies, and then eliminate any restricted factor about making use of tailings resources.
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    Study on Spatial Variability of Soil Nutrients and Reasonable Sampling Number at County Scale
    ZHAO Qian-qian, ZHAO Geng-xing, JIANG Huai-long, LI Min, TANG jian
    2012, 27 (8):  1382-1391.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (4483KB) ( )   Save
    Geostatistics combined with GIS was applied to analyze the spatial variability of soil nutrients in Feixian County in Shandong Province at county scale, and reasonable sampling number was also analyzed on this basis. The soil nutrient data in this study included SOM, TN, AN (alkaline hydrolyzing nitrogen), available P and available K. The results showed the coefficient of variation decreased in the order: available P>available K>SOM>AN>TN and available P has the largest coefficient of variations. SOM, TN and AK present moderate spatial dependence and larger range. Based on the spatial correlation of soil nutrients and validation, we concluded that reasonable sampling number of SOM, TN and AK was about 1035, 842 and 1033 and sampling interval was about 1352 m, 1500 m and 1354 m. AN had no spatial dependence and sampling densities should be increased later for the further study of the spatial structure features of the AN itself. Whereas available P had shorter range and presented strong spatial dependence only in a small range, which was more vulnerable to the influences of extrinsic factors such as human activities. Subsequent sampling densities cannot be lower than the current sampling densities.
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    Spatial Simulation of China’s Land Surface Solar Radiation Resources
    LIU Yu-jie, PAN Tao
    2012, 27 (8):  1392-1403.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (5491KB) ( )   Save
    Based on observed solar radiation and daily range of temperature data from 122 stations during 1981-2010, the Bristow-Campbell radiation model was validated and calibrated in China’s eight natural regions separately. Spatial pattern of the astronomical radiation was calculated by meteorological model through geographic information platform. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data was achieved using PRISM model. Then the astronomical radiation and temperature data were inputted into the parameterized Bristow-Campbell model, and the spatialization process was realized. Based on Stefan-Boltzmann Law, the national long-wave radiation balance was calculated, and then inputted into the solar radiation balance equation. After that, the spatial pattern of China’s land surface solar radiation balance was simulated. Results show that Bristow-Campbell model can be well used to estimate China’s solar radiation after calibration and validation. Bristow-Campbell solar radiation estimation model coupling with gridded meteorological data is an effective way for the spatial simulation of solar radiation resources. The spatial pattern of China’s land surface solar radiation balance shows that the high-value area is in the Tibetan Plateau with over 9000 MJ·m-2 each year. The total radiation balance in the eastern region is lower than the western where the northeastern region is slightly higher than Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. Sichuan and Guizhou are the low areas where the average radiation balance is about 2000 MJ·m-2.
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    Influences of Different Moisture Sources on δD and δ18O in Precipitation in Changsha, Hunan Province
    WU Hua-wu, ZHANG Xin-ping, GUAN Hua-de, SUN Guang-lu, HUANG Yi-min, ZHANG Ting-ting
    2012, 27 (8):  1404-1414.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2277KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the collected precipitation samples and observed meteorological data during 2010 in Changsha, we analyzed the relation between δ18O in precipitation and temperature and precipitation amount, revealing the variations characteristic of δD and δ18O in precipitation, and discussed the influence of moisture transport on the variations of δ18O in precipitation. The results indicated that under the synoptic timescales, there was significant negative correlation between δ18O in precipitation and precipitation amount and temperature in Changsha. That is, the variations of δ18O in precipitation had significant precipitation amount effects and anti-temperature effects. We analyzed the snow samples and rain samples in Changsha by the linear regression, and obtained that the meteoric water line of large precipitation events and snowfall had large slope and interception.With the decrease in rainfall, the slope and interception of the meteoric water line also gradually decreased. It was mainly due to secondary evaporation that resulted in isotopic fractionation of light rainfall. We tracked the trajectory of air flow by HYSPLIT mode in Changsha and found that the moisture sources of the lower value of δ18O mainly came from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and Western Pacific region in the monsoon rainfall(May-September); the moisture sources of the higher value of δ18O mainly came from moisture carried by the westerly wind belt and the local water vapor circulation during non-monsoon rainfall (October-April).
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    Probe into China’s Urban Forests Cultural Ecology Protection and Management
    ZHANG Ying, SONG Wei-ming, YANG Gui-hong
    2012, 27 (8):  1415-1420.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (727KB) ( )   Save
    Forests have economic, ecological, social and cultural functions. Forest cultural ecology corresponding to the forest ecology is the natural living systems formed on the basis of a comprehensive human spirit in forests. In recent years, China’s urbanization rate has increased from 28% in 1993 to 45.68% in 2008, urban forest ecological protection has made great progress in China, but there are problems such as insufficient attention being paid to the forest cultural ecological protection, management, related development lagging behind, etc. In order to strengthen the urban forest cultural ecological protection and management, this study pointed out that China’s social and economic development has approached to a mature and consumption phase, urban forest cultural ecological protection is the key to the future development of urban forestry, especially with the higher level of urbanization, hence urban forest cultural ecological protection will be paid more and more attention. The study suggested that urban forest cultural ecological protection should be taken into forest legislation and management, and should strengthen urban forestry development planning, highlight the integration of physical wealth with spiritual wealth, and promote urban forest cultural ecological protection and green cultural development in China.
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    Predictive Validity of Contingent Valuation on Environment and Resource Programs: A Review
    XU Li-zhong, ZHONG Man-xiu, HAN Zhi-xia, HU Jun, HUANG Mei-fen, ZHANG Jiang-shan
    2012, 27 (8):  1421-1430.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.016
    Abstract ( )   PDF (913KB) ( )   Save
    Contingent valuation (CV) is a mainstream approach to estimating valuation of nonmarket goods, especially of environmental and resource program. As contingent valuation method is on ground of a fiction market, CV validity is ongoing debated, and predictive validity is the core of debasements.CV predictive validity refers to the consistency between people’s sayings and their doings, and Calibration factor (Cf) is used as its characteristic. The closer Cf is to 1, the better CV predictive validity is.In this paper, we retrospected CV predictive validity case studies on environment and resource programs at first. Literature on Cf meta-analysis showed that CV has poor predictive validity, and attribution of the evaluated goods matter.Five factors were summarized as influencing factors of CV predictive validity: without income constraints, warm glow, irrelevant answer, strategic behavior and uncertainty. We deemed these factors could all be attributed to the hypothetical nature of CV deal market. CV hypothetical nature is the primary cause to its poor validity.Three kinds of countermeasures were introduced to improve CV predictive validity: ex ante countermeasures such as cheap talk, ex post countermeasures like follow-up certainty question, and in medias res mitigation countermeasures.We also analyzed the limitation of CV predictive validity expression. Though Cf is a good index of CV validity, good predictive is not equal to scientific. A good Cf does not mean a good CV study; it just represents the market authenticity. At the end of this paper some future research prospect were presented. We call for CV mechanism design research work to improve CV validity fundamentally.
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    Glaciers and Lakes Changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Climate Change in the Past 50 Years
    LI Zhi-guo
    2012, 27 (8):  1431-1443.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.017
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2823KB) ( )   Save
    In this paper, we reviewed the recent plateau glaciers and lakes change research achievements, with special emphasis on discussion of the relationship between glacier shrinkage and lake change. In the context of global climate change, the glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau have been generally retreating while the lakes have been generally expanding. Firstly, the researches about glacial terminal retreat, areas and volume variations in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades have been reviewed and analyzed, and tempo-spatial change characteristics of glaciers have been discussed. Secondly, the lake area, volume and water level changes have been reviewed and analyzed, and tempo-spatial change characteristics of lakes have been discussed. The results show that the retreat speed in the outer edge of the Tibetan Plateau was larger than that of the inland on the whole, the area and water level of the lakes fed by glacial water increased. Finally, the existing problems of the present studies on glaciers and lakes changes and the future tendency were analyzed.
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