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    25 August 2006, Volume 21 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS
    Variations in Water Resources of the Yangtze River over the Last Five Decades
    DAI Shi-bao, YANG Shi-lun
    2006, 21 (4):  501-506.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (355KB) ( )   Save
    This paper aims to reveal the change of some of the water resource characteristics such as total quantity,consumption and pollution in the Yangtze River basin in recent years.The data of water quality,water consumption and depletion are from the Yangtze Water Resource Report(1998-2004)which is published by the Ministry of Water Resources,China.The data of water discharge of the trunk river and the main tributaries are from the Yangtze Water Conservancy Committee.The dataset of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is from the Information Center of the Weather Bureau of China.The results are:(1)The trend of average precipitation decreases in 1954-2004 in the Yangtze River basin;the decrease of precipitation in the upper and middle reaches induces the downtrend of the water discharge at Yichang and Hankou stations,while the increase of precipitation in the lower reach causes the uptrend of the water discharge at Datong station;both the minimum and maximum monthly average water discharge at Datong station shows an increasing trend from 1950 to 2004;the total quantity of water resource is mainly controlled by the variation of climate change.(2)More polluted water,which is mainly induced by the industrial development,is emptied into the rivers and aggravates the water quality.(3)Annual water consumption only accounts for 5.7% of the annual water discharge at Datong station which means that human induced significant influence on the quan-tity of water resources has not occurred yet.The conclusions are:(1)Though significant change in the quantity of water resource does not happen considering the intensified human activities in the Yangtze River basin in recent years,the aggravating water quality does have influence on the utilization of the water resources.(2)As the development of the industries in the Yangtze delta and the operation of South-to-North Water Diversion project,the eastern part of China will depend more on the water resources of the Yangtze River basin which might bring more risks on the safe utilization of water resources and sustainable development.
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    Landuse Changes and Expansion Effects Caused by Road Construction in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region
    ZHU Jian-jun, CUI Bao-shan, YAO Hua-rong, DONG Shi-kui
    2006, 21 (4):  507-515.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (483KB) ( )   Save
    Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region is peculiar for its high mountains and deep gorges,abundant bio-diversities,frangile eco-environment and so on.Road is the primary traffic means in this area and the expansion effects caused due to road construction are distinguishable from those of plain area.Based on the digital land-use maps of 1985 and 2000 and road maps obtained from Resources Data Center of CAS,selecting typical section of highways,the land-use changes of the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region were analyzed using the software of ArcGIS 8.1 and through traditional statistical analyzing methods.The cases of the study are located in Jinghong and Baoshan cities including the urban areas and the road buffer zones with width of 1km,2km,5km and 20km along the roads.In the paper,land-use transfer matrix representing the changes of land-use structure,the index of land-use degree representing the land-use intensity and the index of expansion intensity were used as the reflection of the expansion effects of the road construction.The main conclusions are given as follows:①The transformation of land-use pattern in the study area showed that some forests have been converted to grassland and cultivated land,indicating that ecosystem has degraded.②Changes of land-use structure showed that forest and grassland dominated and the ecosystem was well preserved in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region,however,there were some artificial interference in the region.Land-use degree was determined by the local economic level and the land-use policies and the like.③The sequence according to the index of land-use extend is La20km>La5km>La2km>Laregion>La1km in Jinghong,and La1km>La2km>La5km>Laregion≈La20km in Baoshan.④There were expansion effects of the road construction in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region but the effects were inapparent both in expansion and in intensity comparing with those of the plain area.The expansion effects of road construction were restricted by local natural conditions and economic developing level.The scope was 1km to 5km along the road.
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    Built-up Area Expansion in Hilly Area of Western Zhejiang Province—A Case Study in Tonglu County
    CHEN Zhen-jie, LI Man-chun, LIU Yong-xue
    2006, 21 (4):  516-525.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1098KB) ( )   Save
    Urbanization and industrialization have been developing rapidly since the enforce-ment of the reform and the opening-up policy.Consequently,the built-up area keeps expanding,and it gradually becomes a threat to national food security.Based on the literature review,researches on built-up area expansion of city and town using RS and GIS have become a hot pot in Geography in recent years.However,most of them focus on developed area and plain area,such as Yangtze Delta,Zhujiang River Delta and Bohai Rim,but pay little attention to hilly area.This study selects Tonglu County as a representative case in which about 79% of land is mountain,9% is farmland and 12% is water area.Supervised classification combined with spectral signature analysis is used to extract town land information in Tonglu County from serials of Landsat images acquired in six different years(1978-2002).Next,the town land information and land use data are used to measure the area and intensity of built-up area expansion,spatial pattern and morphology of towns in Tonglu County.Based on which,the characteristics of town land expansion in hilly area of western Zhejiang province are identified.The driving force of town land expansion is stated with different views of aspects,such as physical condition,social-economy,transportation,etc.The result indicates four phenomena as following:①Town land expansion is shown in three obvious phases:low expansion in the 1980s,speeding up expansion in the 1990s and rapid expansion after 1999.And the year 1999 is the milestone at which towns began to expand rapidly.Central district entered this stage prior to other towns,and most ordinary towns haven't been in this stage.②General spatial frame of towns presents a "T shaped" pattern,and it became more and more salient.Fuchun River and Fenshui River are two development axes of it.Central district is located in the center of the "T shaped"pattern,and Fenshui Town is its western center.③"Axes Mode" and "Skip Mode" are the underlying modes of built-up area expansion.As a result,spatial morphology of towns becomes more and more complex.④Built-up area expansion is influenced by many factors.The hilly area of terrain determines general pattern of towns.Growth of economy is the internal driving force of built-up area expansion.Adjustment of regionalism,town planning and policy have instructional influence on town land expansion.And the improvement of transportation speeds up town land expansion.
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    Analysis of Precipitable Water Vapor Source Distribution and Its Seasonal Variation Characteristics over Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings
    LIANG Hong, LIU Jing-miao, LI Shi-kui
    2006, 21 (4):  526-534,677.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1289KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the ground GPS,MODIS remote sensing data and NCEP data grid reanalysis data on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings in 2001,precipitable water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation characteristics are studied over these areas.The result shows that precipitable water vapor column changes between 3 and 30mm in the southeastern part,and between 2 and 20mm in other parts of the Tibetan Plateau.So it is moist in the southeastern part and dry in the northwestern part.There are two high water vapor centers throughout the year,one is over the Grand Canyon of the Yarlung Zangbo River southeast of the Plateau,the other is over Sichuan Basin east of the Plateau.There are also two moisture centers over the surrounding areas.The Grand Canyon is an important access through which a great deal of water vapor reaches the interior of the Plateau.With seasons alternating,the transportation of water vapor from the Grand Canyon changes obviously.Reasonably,a moisture region in the southeastern part and a dry region in the northwestern part of the Plateau are determined by its geographical latitude and the altitude.However precipitable water vapor distribution and its seasonal variations over the Plateau and its adjacent areas are mainly determined by general circulation of atmosphere.Moreover,the transportation of water vapor to the interior of the Plateau by general circulation is different during different seasons,and the transportion intensity of water vapor to different parts of the Plateau is different as well.
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    Research for Scenarios Simulation of Urban Land Use Change in Beijing by System Dynamic Model under Water Restriction from2004 to 2020
    WANG Shuang, HE Chun-yang, PAN Yao-zhong, YANG Ming-chuan
    2006, 21 (4):  535-544.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (438KB) ( )   Save
    Modelling scenarios of land use change under natural resources restriction in typical regions are helpful and significant in investigating the mechanism between land use and natural resources and processing the land use allocation under the resource security.A system dynamic(System Dynamics,SD)model under water restriction aiming at simulating urban land use change is developed in this paper.The model studies different "what-if" scenarios of urban land use change which are controlled by the restricted water resource,along with other elements,such as population,economy and technology advancement.In addition,the model is applied in Beijing.The accuracy assessment with the historical data in Beijing from 1980 to 2003 indicates that this SD model is available to understand the restriction of water resource to land use change and social development.The scenarios simulation of urban land use in Beijing from2004 to 2020 suggests that natural resources exert a strong influence on land use change of the region,leading to severe shortage of natural resources.The results indicate that water resource confines the enlargement of urban land use to some extent.The normal increment without water restriction is 40.42-63.38km2,under water restriction is 21.21-51.30km2.The total urban land use of the former to the whole area is 22%-25% and that of the latter,20%-24%,indicating that restricted scenario is far lower than that without restriction.Especially the average increment rate of the fervent-restricted scenario is only 21.21km2,that is 37.6% of the weak-restricted scenario and 33% of the rapid-developing scenario without water restriction.Moreover,it needs to point out that the less the amount of water resource is,the more significant the influence of water resource on land use change.With the speedup of urbanization and the further economic development in Beijing,the limitation of water resources to Beijing's development is becoming more and more obvious.
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    A Discussion of Surface Water Resources in Tangshan at Present Conditions
    LIU Jun, ZHOU Zu-hao, LU Xin, WANG Qiu-ling, WANG Jin-cheng, LI Zhi-xiang, QIN Da-yong
    2006, 21 (4):  545-550.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (296KB) ( )   Save
    Under the impact of intense human activities,the runoff process we observed can't reflect the natural regimes of water resources,so the impact of human activities should be eliminated.The method which calculates the volume of water resources for water resources assessment is based on this idea.In the process of it,the volume of the water resources of the hydrometric stations which cann't represent the natural run-off and analyse the consistency of the natural run-off series should be dealt with.The consistency analysis method adopted by the Second National Water Resources Assessment is used to analyze the consistency of the water resources series in Tangshan.The result indicates that the surface water resources before and after 1970 or 1980 are different from each other.The main reason is due to the change of land cover,e.g.,water conservancy projects,excessive use of both surface water and groundwater for economic production and domestic life,vegetation restoration,construction of water and soil conservation project cosmically and constructing cropland.The surface water resources series before dividing point are corrected to make them consistent with present conditions using consistency correction method.The volume of surface water resources before correction is 1.462 billion m3 as the land cover change resulted in the fluctuation of surface water resources was not taken into account.However,the volume after being corrected is 1.297 billion m3.The decrease scale of the surface water in mount-ainous area is greater than that in plain area.This is mainly associated with vegetation rehabilitation and water and soil conservancy in mountainous area.The consistency of the corrected result putting forward in this paper is very well,which reflects the actual volume of surface water resources under present conditions.The result is more rational than that before correction.This study lays a solid foundation for clarifying the volume of the surface water resources and for the water resources planning in Tangshan.
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    The Impact of Water Resources Development on Desertification and Pauperization in the Minqin Basin
    MA Jin-zhu, WANG Gang, LI Ding, XIE Yao-wen
    2006, 21 (4):  551-558.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (533KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the GIS,RS,GPS and PRA,the impact of water resources on desertification and pauperization in the Minqin basin is studied.The water in the Shiyang River,which is the main river feeding the basin,is over-used for irrigation with little or no surface water now reaching the Minqin Basin itself.Large-scale water conservancy construction and water resources exploitation were carried out with the dramatic growth of population beginning in 1949 when new P.R.China was founded.In 1995,the total water storage of 23 reservoirs was about 450×106m3.Accordingly,the canalled surface runoff amounted to 1.406×109m3 yearly in the 1990s,being about 89% of the total runoff.As a result farms in the Minqin Basin are now dependent on the pumping of groundwater for both irrigation and drinking purposes.This has caused a gradual reduction in the level of groundwater and a huge lake,approximately 500km2 in extent in the centre of the basin has now disappeared completely.Freshwater can now only be obtained by pumping from wells of 300m deep and the number of wells has reached 10 000.The increasing utilization of water resources has led to great environmental problems such as groundwater exhausting,water level decline,deterioration of water quality,vegetation degradation,soil salini-zation and land desertification,which in turn result in pauperization.It is necessary to step up a higher stage of water management and increase the water saving techniques.A water laws is needed to strictly forbid excessive mining of ground water and provide unified development and allocation within the river basin for socioeconomic development and fragile ecological protection.Meanwhile,it is a possible way to control desertification,eliminate pauperization,convert farmland into forest and plant grass for stock raising.
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    Studies on Radiation Resource Change in Shanghai since the 1990's
    HE Fang-fang, GU Xu-dong, XU Jia-liang
    2006, 21 (4):  559-566.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (247KB) ( )   Save
    For understanding the changing rule of radiation resource in Shanghai,based on the analysis of sunshine data of 11 meteorological stations in Shanghai and Baoshan's radiation data during the last 13 years(1991-2003)and by comparison of mean values of the past 30 years(1961-1990),the statistical change of total radiation,direct radiation,scattered radiation,sunshine-hours,sunshine percentage,photosynthetically active radiation and potentiality of photosynthetic production since the 1990s was studied.The results showed during last the 13 years(1991-2003)in Shanghai,because the global atmospheric aerosol increased,the annual average total radiation decreased 70MJ/m2,the annual average direct radiation decreased 160.6MJ/m2,and the annual average scattered radiation increased 90.6MJ/m2.Because the photosynthetically active radiation was affected by total radiation,the photosynthetically active radiation decreased likewise for the total radiation decreased,the annual average photosynthetically active radiation decreased 17.4MJ/m2.Because the potentiality of photosynthetic production rests with the total radiation and temperature,although the total radiation decreased,yet the temperature increased,the potentiality of photosynthetic production increased as a whole and the annual average potentiality of photosynthetic production increased 3 328kg/hm2.The annual average sunshine-hours decreased 187.5h,and the annual average sunshine percentage decreased 4%. Because the greenhouse gas in the global atmosphere increased drastically,the earth's surface warmed up and heat resource increased,and the global atmospheric aerosol increased,on the contrary,the ray absorbability decreased and scattered radiation increased and radiation resource decreased at the same time,but the increased temperature by the greenhouse gas still occupied a dominant position and the climate became warmer and warmer,thus,radiation resource decreased and heat resource increased instead during the last 13 years(1991-2003) according to the comparison of the average values of that period(1961-1990) in Shanghai.
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    The Deposit,Characteristic and Exploitation Strategy of Peat Resources in China
    MENG Xian-min
    2006, 21 (4):  567-574.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (405KB) ( )   Save
    From the point of view of resources process of peatlands and peat resource-environment-economic system,the attribute and characteristic of peat resources of China were analyzed and the relationship among peat resource,economy and society was investigated in this paper. Of the 4.6 billion tons(oven weight) of peat resources in China,most of them are concen-trated in 10 provinces such as Sichun,Gansu,Heilongjiang,Jilin et al.,accounting for 92% of the country's total amount.The peat resources in other provinces are poor with low quality,some peat resources are covered by soil layer,so it is difficult to exploit.Besides,98% of peat in China is eutrophic in nature with dominant herbaceous plant species.As peat in China is characterized by moderate organic content,high humic acid,moderate decomposition and weak acidity,most of it can only be used in agriculture. According to the deposition,quality and exploitation condition of peat resources in China,the standard of peatlands conservation and utilization should be developed,governmental support and guideline should be given to this newly rise peat industry,exploitation of high technical peat product should be enhanced,utilization efficiency and technical value should be improved,the depletion of peat resource should be slowed down,exploitation and conservation of peat resources should be laid equal stress on,so that coordinated development of resource exploitation,social progress and environmental protection could be promoted.
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    Assessment on Grassland Degradation at Regional-scale in the Baiyinxile Ranch,Inner Mongolia
    FENG Xiu, TONG Chuan, ZHANG Lu, MIAO Bai-ling, DING Yong, ZHANG Yuan-ming
    2006, 21 (4):  575-583.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (643KB) ( )   Save
    Grassland degradation is a major ecological problem in the Inner Mongolia region,because it causes drop of grassland productivity and leads to desertification.The objective of this study was to grade grassland degradation by using field quadrat data,and to assess the spatial extent and severity of grassland degradation using TM digital data in the Baiyinxile Ranch,which was the largest state-run ranch in Inner Mongolia. TWINSPAN(Two-Way Indicators Species Analysis,TWINSPAN)and DCA(Detrended Correspondence Analysis,DCA)were used to analyze the communities quatrat data of the 32 sample spots in the Baiyinxile Ranch,Inner Mongolia.The grassland in the study area was divided into three different degraded grades according to the results of quantitative analysis,and the relation between dry biomass per m2 and different degraded grades was proposed,and then the above ground biomass values for dividing the three degraded grades were developed.Using Landsat TM digital data in August 2004 and combining the investigation on grassland communities in the study area,the relations between the above ground biomass and RVI and NDVI were calculated,and the model of grassland above ground biomass estimation was established.The grassland degradation map was compiled by assessing the degraded grades of grassland in every pixel in the TM digital data,and the grassland above ground biomass at Ranch scale was estimated.The results indicate that:(1)there is a positive relation between the aboveground dry biomass and grassland degraded grades;2)the relation between the biomass and RVI was best(R2=0.644);and 3)the areas of slightly-degraded,moderately-degraded,and heavily-degraded grassland account for 24.51%,43.63% and 24.12% of the total study area. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining remote sensing data with field survey data in assessing grassland degradation in a regional scale,and provides useful information for improving grassland management and restoring the degraded grassland in the Baiyinxile Ranch.Grassland with different degraded grades needs different measures for their restoration.For the heavily-degraded grassland,the elimination of grazing by fencing may be necessary;for slightly-and moderately-degraded grassland,ecologically sound,advanced rangeland management measures,including grazing rotation,seasonal enclosures,and constructing artificial and semi-artificial grasslands should be considered.
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    Status and Conservation of Large and Medium-sized Mammals in the Upper Zayu River Basin
    WU Peng-ju
    2006, 21 (4):  584-589.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.011
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    From August 2001 to August 2002,a one-year study was carried out in the upper Zayu River basin,southeast Tibet,where systematic investigations on mammals were lack.The purpose of the study was to clarify the status of large and medium-sized mammals and factors threatening them.Twenty transects(10m) were set to survey the distribution,habitat and relative density of these mammals.Questionnaires were issued to get to know income and hunting activities of the villagers in the region.Mainly,21 species belonging to the orders of Primate,Carnivore and Artiodactyl were involved in this survey.Among these mammals,black muntjac was proved to be distributed in the study area for the first time.It was found that ungulates,especially takin and serow,were relatively abundant,while most species belonging to Carnivore Order were very rare,and even several of them has been probably extinct.Large and medium-sized mammals distributing locally were also major trophies of local hunters,which amounted to 82% of all families,and were important source of income and meat.Hunting was the most direct factor threatening these mammals,which caused fast declining of many animals,especially musk deer and Asiatic black bear.Besides hunting,human activity and habitat destruction also impaired the survival of these mammals.Based on these and previous studies,29 species of large and medium mammals in all are distributed in the region,28 of which belong to Class I or Ⅱ protected species in China.It was suggested that protecting these animals should be combined with promoting local economy.For conservation and development,six suggestions were put forward to resolve the local problems.
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    Impacts of Climate Warming on Heating Climatic Conditions and Energy Requirements over China in the Past 20 Years
    CHEN Li, FANG Xiu-mu, FANG Xiu-qi, LI Shuai
    2006, 21 (4):  590-597.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.012
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    Since the 1980s,especially since the mid 1990s,the climate in China has been warming up,which exerted significant impacts on winter heating conditions and energy require-ments in China.This paper analyzes the impacts of climate warming on winter heating climatic conditions and energy requirements in China during the past 20 years,based on daily mean temperature data from 458 stations throughout China.According to the definition of Code for Design of Heating,Ventilation and Air Conditioning(GB50019-2003),the start/end date for heating and central/intermittent heating region are defined.When we analyze the heating intensity,the degree-day method is selected.Comparing to the referential period(before 1980),during the period of 1985 to 2004 and 1995 to 2004,the borderlines of central heating region and intermittent heating region were shifted northward obviously.Especially in eastern China(east of 110°E),they were shifted northward by 2-3 latitude degrees.The heating length has decreased 5-15d in most parts of northern China and more than 30d in some parts south of the Yangtze River.Heating intensity decreased by more than 200℃ in northern China.Theoretically,the rates of energy saving for heating merely caused by climate warming are 5%-30% in northern China and more than 30% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
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    Simulation of the Impact of Climate Change on Chinese Wheat Production in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
    TIAN Zhan, LIU Ji-yuan, CAO Ming-kui
    2006, 21 (4):  598-607.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (635KB) ( )   Save
    The global climate is changing due to constant increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.The latest climate simulation result indicates that even more drastic change will take place in future global climate,which might exert significant impacts on many production sectors,particularly agriculture.Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society,as China is an agricultural country with a large population,climate change will bound to exert multiple impacts on Chinese agricultural production.Therefore,using clinmate change projects and crop models to acquire a understanding of the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture,especially on winter wheat,is extremely helpful to policy makers and international agencies.CERES-Wheat,a dynamic process crop growth model,has been calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat-growing region of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China.With the aid of the two Global Climate Models(GISS and Hadley),the present study simulates the production changes under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios.The simulations consider the impacts on rainfed and irrigated winter wheat with and without CO2 fertilization.The results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in this region,with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production.The conclusion is that an overall reduction of the rainfed wheat yield was observed in the study area,the yield reduction extent is greater in the western part and smaller in the eastern,taking no account of direct CO2 fertilization effect while the irrigated wheat yield keeps the current level with the increase in irrigation water amount but without considering the CO2 fertilization effect.Meantime both the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield increased largely with the consideration of the CO2 fertilization effect,but the increasing extent of rainfed wheat is greater than the irrigated wheat because the CO2 fertilization effect improves significantly water use efficiency and reduces the irrigation water amount.Our simulation results also showed that the selection of GCM could significantly affect final predictions,especially in relation to precipitation signals.By contrast,we found that the selection of emission scenario(A2 vs.B2) was less important in determining final impacts.
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    Response of Agricultural Phenospectrum to Global Climate Change in Loess Plateau of East Gansu Province
    GUO Hai-ying, ZHAO Jian-ping, SUO An-ning, YANG Xing-guo, HUANG Bin, GE Jian-ping
    2006, 21 (4):  608-614.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.014
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    According to years of synchronous observations of growth spectrum of Dongzhiyuan main crops(e.g.winter wheat) and main fruit trees(e.g.apple,pear) and climatic change,this paper analyzes the ecological response of crop growth spectrum to the climatic change in Loess Plateau of east Gansu province.The result indicates that the mean annual temperature has presented an increasing trend notably in the last 35 years in Dongzhiyuan,and dominated by winter and spring warming(winter wheat over-wintering period temperature increase linear trend reaches 0.067 2℃/a),basically identical with the warming trend of global climate.It reaches 0.050 7℃/a,which is much higher than the mean national temperature increase range since the 1960s and also higher than the Loess Plateau in east Gansu province(0.034 8℃/a) in the last 35 years.It is also the central area in temperature increase in the study area.This further confirms that the eastern part of Northwest China is one of the regions witnessing greater temperature increase range.The impact of climate warming on ecology of winter wheat and fruit tree ia mainly reflected in advance in growth stage generally in spring in Dongzhiyuan and winter wheat over-wintering stage shortens notably(the shortened linear trend reaching 0.674d/a).However,winter wheat and fruit tree growth intervals at various phases do not present shortening trend.And because the locally plant winter wheat variety is strong winter enduring and long sunshine tolerate variety,the advancement in growth period causes the shortening of sunshine time,restricts crop or plant growth to a certain degree and offsets partly,the temperature increase effect.Therefore,the linear trend of fruit tree puberty in advance in spring is more obvious than the winter wheat.With regard to fruit tree,the linear trend of puberty of pear tree in advance is more obvious than the apple tree in spring.The conclusion is that the impact of climatic change is both advantageous and disadvantageous to agriculture.So the relevant agricultural administrative department should follow the local climatic change characteristics to adjust the cropping pattern in time,optimize the mode of planting,go after profits and advoid disadvantages,fully excavate the resource potentiality of the climate and improve the agricultural economic benefits.
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    Regional Ecological Security of Rapidly Urbanizing Pearl River Delta,China: A Case Study of Foshan City
    ZHANG Hao, TANG Xiao-min, WANG Shou-bin, GUO Lin, YONG Yi, WANG Xiang-rong
    2006, 21 (4):  615-624.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.015
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    Foshan city is the third biggest city in Guangdong province and typically one of the fast developing cities of Pearl River Delta,which has been one of the most prosperous economic zones but meanwhile one of the areas characterized with serious ecological degradation within China's coastal economic regions since the late 1970s.Therefore,Foshan was selected as a case for the study on ecological security situation during the recent rapid urbanization process.Based on statistical methodology,Landsat 7 ETM+ interpretation by remote sensing software and GIS based integrated assessment,the local ecological capacity assessment,which was calculated with REP(Relative Ecological Pressure)and RREC(Relative Residual Ecological Capacity),and the ecological risk assessment,which was calculated with RERI(Relative Ecological Risk Index),were performed to demonstrate the total environmental situation,ecological consequences and causes for Foshan regional development.Results show that among the various districts of Foshan the REP levels rank in decreasing order as Chanchen>Nanhai>Shunde>Gaoming>Sanshui,whereas the RREC levels rank in decreasing order as Chanchen Related Articles | Metrics
    New Regional Pattern of Grain Supply-demand in China in the Early 21st Century
    YIN Pei-hong, FANG Xiu-qi, MA Yu-ling, TIAN Qing
    2006, 21 (4):  625-631,678.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.016
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    Based on county-level statistic data in 2000-2003,this article reveals new regional distribution and difference of supply-demand of grain in China in the early 21st century.According to per capita grain available,four types of grain supply-demand are given in this study.Regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China shows a dominant rule of east-west differentiation,and then the rule of south-north differentiation.At present,the main grain-surplus regions are most extensively distributed to the east borderline of the second ladder of topography in China,being about 1/4 of the whole country.At nearly the same quantity,the food-shortage regions in average year are mostly distributed in the region west to the sideline of population geography from Heihe city in Heilongjiang province to Tengchong city in Yunnan province,namely Huhuanyong sideline in China.The potential food-shortage regions are located between the above two geographic boundaries,which have the largest numbers of the four types of grain supply-demand regions,about 1/3 of the whole country.According to the above regional pattern of grain supply-demand,this article divided the whole country into six regions to analyze regional difference in grain production with some key indices.Northeast China and North China Plain produced nearly 70% of the surplus grains of the whole country,and the southern region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River ranks the third.Northeast China has the least number of food-shortage regions,and supplied about 40% of the surplus grains in China.The southern region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has the greatest number of food-shortage regions in China,followed by the interlock area of farming and pasturing in the region east to the borderline of the second ladder of topography.This region is also the most fragile region in food security in China,where the level of grain production and economic development is very low.Most of the above areas are located on the regions sensitive to environmental changes,which have the highest natural risk of grain production.It is necessary to improve human acclimatization and strengthen the studies on impact of environmental changes on China's food security.
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    Studies on the Potential Productivity of Rain-fed Maize in Dry-land Area of Northern China
    JU Hui, LI San-ai, YAN Chang-rong, LI Kang
    2006, 21 (4):  632-637.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.017
    Abstract ( )   PDF (296KB) ( )   Save
    Drought and water shortage are the major influencing factors to sustainable agricultural development in northern China,as most of it is located in arid and semi-arid areas.Meanwhile,northern China is also an important grain producing base of the country.Exploiting the major crops potential productivity in macro-scale could provide consultative information and priority regions for the formulation of development strategy.Considering the water shortage situation and its key role in grain production in northern China,CERES-maize is used to simulate rainfall potential productivity of maize in dryland farming areas of northern China,and analyse the temporal and spatial distribution of potential productivity.The results show that average potential productivity of maize in semi-humid area is about 11 000kg/ha,while in arid area is about 5 000kg/ha.As a whole,the rainfall potential productivity of maize is in the order of sub-humid area >semiarid area >arid area.Moreover,the inter-annual fluctuation of potential productivity in sub-humid area is also significant,and that of arid area is relatively stable.The potential productivity in eastern part of northern dryland area is higher than that in the western,but there is no significant difference from north to south in the northern dryland area.
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    The "Pig-Raising,Methane-Generating and Fruit-Growing" Eco-Agricultural Pattern of Recycling Economy
    HU Zhen-peng, HU Song-tao
    2006, 21 (4):  638-644.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.018
    Abstract ( )   PDF (321KB) ( )   Save
    The "Pig-Raising,Methane-Generating and Fruit-Growing" eco-agricultural system is a pattern of recycling economy.The system structure and work mechanism are analyzed and results of scientific experiment are summarized for the development of recycling economy in this paper.The system integrates a series of complex biological and chemical reactive process based on the methane-generating.This leads to simultaneous accomplishment of upgrading structural hierarchy for traditional cultivation pattern,making full use of material in multiple hierarchies,making effective conversion of energy,and bringing economic,social and ecological benefits.Some 103.87 million methanegenerating pits and 250 big methane-generating projects have been constructed in Jiangxi Province.Because firewood gathering has been replaced by methane,more than 6×106 m3 of woods are saved every year,and 74×103 ha of forest has been projected.The residues in methane-generating can be returned to farmland,so that fertilizer use efficiency increased by 20% in contrast to the traditional pattern and the soil quality can be improved,for example the organic materials increased by three times and the dissolve nitrogen increased by more than one times.The "Pig-Raising,Methane-Generating and Fruit-Growing" eco-agricultural system has been widely used in tackling small catchment in a comprehensive way,reducing environmental pollution by area source in rural areas,predicting the pollution-free foods and controlling schistosomiais.The results of the theoretical research and scientific experiment show that development of recycling economy should maintain the direction in the theory and methodology of the system science,take the motive force of science and technology as a guidence and laws and policies as a support.
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    The Method of Basin Initial Water Rights Allocation and Its Application Based on AHP
    YIN Yun-song, MENG Ling-jie
    2006, 21 (4):  645-652.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.019
    Abstract ( )   PDF (181KB) ( )   Save
    This paper mainly studies basic principle and the method of basin initial water rights distribution based on AHP.Firstly,it points out two shortcomings of the existing index system of initial water rights distribution,namely,no reflection of the equitableness and no reflection of the influence of pollution discharge rights.On the basis of overcoming the above shortcomings,this paper reset up the index system of basin initial water rights distribution from the indexes which reflect the efficiency and the indexes which reflect the equitableness.Then the paper sets up the AHP model of basin initial water rights distribution.The Yellow River basin being taken as an example,this paper introduces the index of discharge to redesign the index system of basin initial water rights distribution and researches the scheme of the Yellow River basin initial water rights distribution.This scheme improves the allocative decision of initial water rights among provinces(or regions)along the Yellow River.The main contents of this scheme are as follows:the amount of adjusted initial water rights distribution of Qinghai province is from 14.1 hundred million m3 to 45.34 hundred million m3 and the percentage is 221.56%.The amount of Gansu province is from 30.4 hundred million m3 to 43.35 hundred million m3 and the percentage is 42.6%.The amount of Ningxia is from 40 hundred million m3 to 35.97 hundred million m3 and the percentage is-10.08%.The amount of Inner Mongolia is from 58.6 hundred million m3 to 40.59 hundred million m3 and the percentage is-30.73%.The amout of Shanxi province is from 43.1 hundred million m3 to 50.03 hundred million m3 and the percentage is 16.08%.The amount of Shaanxi province is from 38 hundred million m3 to 38.18 hundred million m3 and the percentage is 0.47%.The amount of Henan province is from 55.4 hundred million m3 to 39.05 hundred million m3 and the percentage is-29.51%.The amount of Shandong province is from 70 hundred million m3 to 57.09 hundred million m3 and the percentage is-18.44%.This scheme reveals the influence on the allocative decision of initial water rights among provinces(or districts) along the Yellow River,and this influence mainly comes from the indexes,such as GDP per 1 m3 water,the amount of outputing water,the amount of actual drafted water,etc.It is supposed to say that this influence is active and reasonable.At the same time,this influence reflects the basic principle of initial water rights distribution which gives priority to the equitableness and thinks the efficiency as second.
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    A Modified Model of Ecological Footprint Calculation Based on the Theory of Emergy Analysis-Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example
    ZHANG Fang-yi, PU Li-jie, ZHANG Jian
    2006, 21 (4):  653-660.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.020
    Abstract ( )   PDF (375KB) ( )   Save
    Associated with rapid development of economy and increase of population,we face a series of contradictions among the natural resources,environment and economy,such as resources depression,environmental deterioration and so on.To be sustainable,humanity must live within the limits of nature's carrying capacity.In the 1990s,Rees and Wackernagel put forward the ecological footprints model,which offers an easy and rapid method to measure the environmental situations of eco-economic system. The aim of the paper is to show a modified model of ecological footprint calculation by combining emergy analysis with conventional ecological footprint model of calculations,in the framework of the theory of ecological footprint,to apply the method of emergy analysis and introduce the concept of emergy density into the calculation models,in order to translate all kinds of energy flows in the eco-economic systems into the corresponding biological productive units.In this paper we present a new method of ecological footprint calculation,based on the emergy analysis.The translation of human demand of natural resources and the supply of nature services into understandable and quantifiable concepts is the main objective of this new method.Firstly,the amounts of human consumption corresponding to six categories of ecological productive areas and the amounts of natural supply are calculated.And then,these amounts are translated into common unit emergy through the emergy analysis.Thirdly,in this new method we are proposing,we will derive the ecological footprint and carrying capacity by dividing the emergy amounts by the emergy density.Finally,we compare the ecological footprint with the carrying capacity to measure the environmental status of sustainability in the given region. With Jiangsu Province in the year 2003 as an example,we apply the modified model to it to analyze the ecological environmental situations.According to the calculation equations,we get the annual total emergy amount of Jiangsu was 7.828×1021sej and its emergy density was 7.629×1021sej/ha.And then we get the carrying capacity of Jiangsu was 0.299 7ha/cap,the ecological footprint of biological resources and energy resources was 4.722 8ha/cap,and the ecological deficit was 4.423 2ha/cap.So we conclude that the ecological footprint of Jiangsu has exceeded its carrying capacity,which conforms with the calculation results of conventional model of ecological footprints.This indicates that the new method of ecological footprint calculation is effective and feasible. By analyzing the strong points of the modified model,we find that the calculation results of the modified model give a more realistic picture of the environmental situations of the eco-econo-mic systems,compared to the conventional one.
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    Comparison on Evaluation Methods of Forests and Wooded Land in Green Accounting for Forest
    ZHANG Ying, GAO Shu-yuan, DU Ting
    2006, 21 (4):  661-669.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.021
    Abstract ( )   PDF (334KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the summary of the evaluation methods of forests and wooded land in green accounting for forest in domestic and foreign,this paper indicates that the evaluation of forests and wooded land originated from forest valuation has existed more than 200 years;there are many kinds of methods in forest evaluation,such as comparative valuation method,cost valuation method and benefit valuation method.Cost valuation method is generally used to evaluate young growth and middle-aged forest;benefit valuation method is often used to estimate submature,mature and overmature forest.The evaluation methods of forests and wooded land recommended by the United Nations in the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts(SEEA)are stumpage value method,consumption value method and net present value method.Although the names of the methods in the SEEA are inconsistent with those in forest valuation,all these methods belong to the benefit valuation method.This paper also separately uses the cost method and net present value method to evaluate the forests and wooded land in Hainan Province and the Greater Hinggan Mountains.Through the comparison and analysis to the results of the valuation,the cost method is believed to be the minimum value of the forest valuation.The result calculated by the net present value method is higher than the one calculated by the cost method and the former is 1.03-1.04 times higher than the latter.Moreover,although the United Nations takes the net present value method as the first choice,actual calculation needs massive data.And the results of the three methods of stumpage value method,consumption value method and net present value method have big difference.Researches carried out in German,Australia and France indicate that there is a discrepancy by about 2 times in the valuation results of the three methods.Finally,the paper points out that there are no common methods to evaluate forests and wooded land at present and different evaluation methods have different results.
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    Evaluation Model of Water Resources Value Under the Condition of Water Shortage and Its Application
    PENG Xiao-ming, WANG Hong-rui, DONG Yan-yan, ZHANG Ke-gang
    2006, 21 (4):  670-675.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.022
    Abstract ( )   PDF (137KB) ( )   Save
    The water resources value appraisal is the kernel of water resources economic mana-gement.As the water resource crisis is worsening,the calculation of water resources value appears especially important.The progress of research in water resources value appraisal at home and abroad is summarized in this paper.The present water resource check computation theory can be classified into four kinds,namely,supply decided by demand,demand decided by supply,theory based on macro-economy,and sustainable development.The paper puts forward the fuzzy-gray correlation analysis model of water resources value by fuzzy comprehensive judgment based on fuzzy theory and gray system theory,taking into account the effect of natural environmental factors,social factors and economic factors on water resources value,by which water resource price in Beijing is calculated and analyzed for the 12 departments including entironment,domestic life,irrigation,electric power,hotel,petrochemical,press and so on.The results indicate that various actual water prices are lower than the calculated water value in Beijing at present.In order to remitting the water shortage in Beijing,economic lever can be used to adjust the water price in various trades in order that the water resources can be allocated more reasonably in Beijing.
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