Table of Content

    25 August 2007, Volume 22 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS
    The Valuation and Compensation Policies Suggestions of Main Capitals and Services of Miyun Reservoir
    HU Yan-xia, ZHOU Lian-di, YAN Mao-chao, DONG Xiao-bin, WU Zhi-qiang, WEI Chang-shan
    2007, 22 (4):  497-506.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (979KB) ( )   Save
    Miyun Reservoir is a huge engineering with various functions of flood control,irrigation,water supply,electricity generation,tourism,etc.Miyun Reservoir plays key roles in sustaining the biosphere including economy and society of Beijing,it is very important to valuate the main capitals and services of Miyun Reservoir for decision-making.A donor system of value based on solar emergy and ecological economics are suggested as the means to valuate the main capitals and services of Miyun Reservoir.The results showed that the values of main capitals are RMB 472×108yuan,the total values of main services from 1960 to 2004 are 236×108yuan.Recently,the value of services of tourism,water supply and fishery products were 2.56×108yuan/yr.In order to sustain the function of Miyun Reservoir and provide a basis for the sustainable development of Beijing,this paper suggests compensation funding should be 12×108yuan/yr for the operation,conservation and development of Miyun Reservoir and its watershed area.
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    Emergy Analysis of the Eco-economic Systems of West Jilin Province According to the Resource and Environment Gradient
    WANG Ming-quan, WANG Jin-da, LIU Jing-shuang
    2007, 22 (4):  507-515.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (344KB) ( )   Save
    On the basis of emergy method,this paper chose four regions in west Jilin province,Changling,Qian’an,Da’an and Zhenlai from southeast to northwest,to make a contrasting analysis of the eco-economical dynamics according to resource and environment gradient.The results indicated that the emergy indices were varying noticeably between the study sites.1)Stability of the systems.Agro-ecosystem functions here fluctuated obviously with rainfall,but Changling and Qian’an had a relatively more stable agriculture than that in Zhenlai and Da’an.Benefited from the stability,there was an increasing trend of emergy density(ED)and emergy investment ratio(EIR)from Zhenlai to Changling.Correspondingly,from 1989 to 2001 Changling enabled the largest scale-up of emergy harvest and emergy accumulation of all,followed by Qian’an,Da’an and Zhenlai.2)Emergy yield structures.Though experienced a declining proportion,crop still contributed most to the total emergy harvest in Changling and Qian’an.As to Zhenlai and Da’an,stockbreeding have played a dominating role in recent years since the crop yield suffered heavy consequences of rainfall scarcity.As a whole,the average emergy yield ratio(EYR)appeared to be Changling(1.89)Qian’an>Da’an>Zhenlai while environmental sustainability index(ESI)varied oppositely.It was higher economic stress that led weak sustainability of the agro-ecosystems in Changling and Qian’an,but Da’an and Zhenlai had a lower level and more unstable economy mainly for the reason of resource scarcity.4)Based on what mentioned above it could be concluded that natural resources and environmental conditions,especially rainfall,was of great significance to the well-run of eco-economic system in west Jilin province.
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    The Characteristics and the Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Dunhuang City of Gansu Province, China
    ZHOU Chang-jin, DONG Suo-cheng, LI Dai, ZHANG Xiao-jun
    2007, 22 (4):  516-523.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (234KB) ( )   Save
    This paper comprehensively evaluated the quantity and quality of water resources and their essential characteristics of natural spacial and temporal distribution in Dunhuang City of Gansu Province,China.The result indicated that the large scale utilization of water resources for irrigation has greatly affected the process of water cycle in this region.At the same time,construction of hydraulic engineering has also exerted severe impacts on eco-environment,such as drying up of the river,sharp drop of groundwater table and aggravation of land desertification.The authors presented the measures and suggestions for effective utilization of the water resources,and for ensuring healthy and sustainable development of society and economy and exerting the advantage in tourism of Dunhuang,including:1) to readjust and optimize industrial structure and develop low water-consumed eco-type industry like tourism by a big way;2) to intensify water environmental protection and strictly control groundwater exploitation; 3) to develop water-saving irrigation technology and raise water use efficiency; 4) to pay attention to eco-water utilization and guarantee eco-environmental construction and 5) to implement water diversion project from Haerteng River to Danghe River as soon as possible and optimize allocation of water resources.
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    Urban Growth in Nanjing since 1949
    LI Fei-xue, LI Man-chun, LIU Yong-xue, LIANG Jian, CHEN Zhen-jie
    2007, 22 (4):  524-535.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (363KB) ( )   Save
    The process of urbanization is speeding up along with the development of socio-economy.As a result,urban area grows rapidly.Research on urban growth using RS and GIS has become a focus in recent years by geographers,and it’s meaningful to put more emphases upon urban growth study and lead urban growth by constituting effective policies and measures.Urban boundary information of Nanjing was extracted from aerial photos (1949 and 1976),Landsat MSS (1988),TM(1997,2000 and 2001),and ETM+(2003)images with supervised classification after principal component analysis.Based on the urban growth intensity,the population-urban growth index,the fractal index,the urban growth orientation,the urban gravity transfer model,etc.,this paper analyzes characteristics of urban spatial-temporal change in Nanjing city,Jiangsu province. The driving force of urban growth in Nanjing is discussed form the view points of physical condition,social-economy,etc.,and we concluded that:(1)The urban area expanded by 10 times in Nanjing from 1949-2003.The urban growth process can be divided into three phases: the urban growth maintained slow from 1949 to 1976 with a pattern of quasi-loop expansion and an intensity of 1.85%;then it speeded up from 1976 to 1988,with an intensity of 8.55% and quasi-loop expansion existed together with a leap-forward pattern;subsequently,it kept rapid expansion after 1988,with a pattern of leap-forward and join and an intensity of 18.79%.(2)For the obstruct of the Yangtze River,urban growth presents an“Axis Mode”,and the growth axis is extending along the Yangtze River (viz.from north-east to south-west);meanwhile,the direction of the gravity transfers toward south-east after wavered toward north.(3)As a result of urban growth,morphology of the urban expansion maintained stable after becoming complex,and became more and more reasonable.Urban growth intensity in each district in different periods from 1949 to 2003 is different from each other,and urban growth kept loose in the suburbs and compact in the city proper.(4)The existing urban land border and shape were formed under the joint efforts of many forces,such as socio-economic force,physical condition,and so on.The dominant forces in different phases are different from each other.In the point of quantity of urban growth,development of economy was the leading driving force,and policies were the main factors influencing spatial pattern and spatial morphology.The improvement of infrastructure,especially,transportation extended urban frame, and the adjustment of regionalism provides space for urban growth which is oriented by general urban planning.
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    Development of Research on Environmental Impacts of Tourism and Its Implication
    GONG Jie, LU Lin
    2007, 22 (4):  545-556.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (338KB) ( )   Save
    Research on environmental impacts of tourism is one of the most important themes in the area of tourism environment and tourism impact.It can provide a guide for the protection and management of resources in tourist resort and play an important role in the development of ecotourism and sustainable tourism.In order to discuss current issues and future direction,this paper summarizes the research abroad on the environmental impacts of tourism from four aspects:research development,research themes,research methods and research results;and then gives a review of research at home in the developmental sequence.According to current state of environmental impacts and research,the future foci will be studying more impact types,expanding the scales of research, enhancing background research,and improving research methods.Research in China can be carried out by virtue of advanced methods and research findings from other countries.Meanwhile,the facts and figures in China should be considered.It is more significant for us to enlarge research areas,improve research methods,and strengthen case studies and research on management and application.
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    A Review of Ecological Compensation and Its Improvement Measures
    QIN Yan-hong, KANG Mu-yi
    2007, 22 (4):  557-567.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (345KB) ( )   Save
    Ecological conservation or protection is a kind of socioeconomic activity with positive externality.To internalize the externality,the concept of Ecological Compensation (EC) is put forward.It adopts economic and market-based instruments to encourage people participate in ecological conservation.Participant Gets Principle (PGP) and Beneficiary Pays Principle (BPP) are the two basic principles of it.EC has been widely applied to afforestation,watershed management,agro-environmental protection,biodiversity conservation,carbon sequestration,and so on.While its theories and practices are still in infancy,the compensation system is imperfect with respect to who should be compensated,who should pay,how much to be compensated,and how to finance and allocate compensation payments.By reviewing EC approaches and some efforts that have been made in developed countries (e.g. America and some European countries) and developing countries (e.g. China and Latin American countries),we find out there was very little use of the BPP,ecology and economics have not been well integrated into EC studies,most programs just focus on payments,ignoring the influence of socioeconomic factors on ecological conservation,and so on.After the review and comments,we summarize a functioning mechanism of ecological compensation,which can guide us to improve ecological compensation system.The improvement methods concern:(a)identifying providers and beneficiaries of ecosystem services; (b)on the basis of opportunity cost approach,integrating ecological conservation with regional socioeconomic development,settling proper compensation standards to services providers;(c)calculating payment levels from the side of beneficiaries by integrating the quantity of services they receive,their willingness to pay and their bearing capacity;(d)seeking financing sources and allocating payments cost-effectively;and(e)building up the framework of EC.We consider an effective EC system should take “hematogenesis” rather than “blood transfusion” as its object,and EC research should integrate ecological theories and methods with those of economics.
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    Spatial and Temporal Variation in Soil Respiration of Picea. schrenkiana.var tianschanica (Rupr.) Chen et Fu Natural Stand in the Tianshan Mountains
    LIU Hua, ZANG Run-guo, JIANG Xiao-heng, ZHANG Xin-ping, BAI Zhi-qiang, GUO Zhong-jun, ZHANG Yu-tao
    2007, 22 (4):  568-578.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (448KB) ( )   Save
    Soil respiration is an important component of the global carbon cycle and the most important output approach of soil carbon as well as one of the largest fluxes in the global carbon cycle.Relevant researches on forest soil respiration rate have been carried out in some forest regions in China. However,few studies have been done in the Tianshan montane forest ecosystem.Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region located in the centre of Eurasian continent occupies a large area(about 1/6 of the total area of China)and is the biggest province in China.The Tianshan Mountains lie in the middle of the province.Picea schrenkiana var. tianschanica (Rupr.)Chen et Fu natural forest is the main forest vegetation in the Tianshan Mountains. Here,spatial and temporal patterns of soil respiration under the natural stand of P. schrenkiana var.tianschanica(Rupr.)were studied during the growing season(from June to September)in 2006. Using soil respiration chamber of LI-6400-09 and portable photosynthesis system that based on the principles of infra-red gas analyzer,we measured soil respiration rate of P. schrenkiana var. tianschanica(Rupr.)natural stand in the Tianshan montane forest ecosystem,and analyzed its variation in different elevation gradients.At the same time,we measured diurnal changes of soil respiration rate of P. schrenkiana var. tianschanica (Rupr.)natural stand at an elevation of 1956m.The objectives of the study were as follows:(1)analyzing the main factors that affect the seasonal and diurnal variability in soil respiration during the growing season; and(2)understanding the spatial variation of soil respiration along the elevation gradient in the growing season. The results showed that the soil respiration rate fluctuated along the elevation gradient. From 1950m to 2110m,soil respiration rate decreased with the increase of elevation.From 2110m to 2428m,it increased with the increase of elevation,and the highest value of soil respiration rate occurred at 2428m.From 2428m to 2620m,it decreased.The statistic test showed that the soil respiration rate was highly significantly correlated with air humidity near the soil surface(p<0.01),and significantly correlated with the 10cm soil temperature under the soil surface at different elevations(p<0.05).Changes of soil respiration rate were the unimodal form from June to September in the growing season.The maximum value(5.38±0.79μmol·m-2·s-1)occurred in July. Diurnal change of soil respiration rate in P. schrenkiana var. tianschanica(Rupr.)natural stand were mainly affected both by the soil temperature(p<0.01)and the air temperature humidity near the soil surface (p<0.05). This study demonstrates that elevation gradient could be used as an indirect environmental indicator in analyzing spatial variation of soil respiration for P. schrenkiana var. tianschanica (Rupr.)natural forest ecosystem in the Tianshan Mountains.And the temporal change of the soil respiration was mainly controlled by temperature and moisture which varied diurnally and monthly.
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    Design and Implement of Satellite-Ground Synchronous Experiment for Biochemical Information Extraction Using Remote Sensing
    SHI Run-he, ZHUANG Da-fang, NIU Zheng, SHEN Yan, LIU Yong-hong, WANG Wen
    2007, 22 (4):  579-584.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (338KB) ( )   Save
    Physiological and ecological processes within plants play an important role of the exchange of materials and energy.The contents of biochemical substances influence or even control the progress of those processes directly or indirectly.To estimate biochemical information of vegetation becomes a new branch of remote sensing research and application with the development of imaging spectrometry.This paper presents detailed introductions and analyses on Mengzhe(Yunnan) hyperspectral satellite-ground synchronous experiment carried out in the end of March,2005,to give instructions on the selection of research area,observation date,experiment methods,and the design of experiment processes.The difference of satellite-ground synchronous experiment and ordinary field experiment is emphatically analyzed so as to provide helpful experience for the design and implement of similar synchronous experiments in the future.Results show that(1)sensor performance,(2)potential risk on earth observation data,(3)requirements for remotely sensed image processing,and(4)the synchronous issue of satellite observation data,ground measured spectral data and biochemical data,need more attention in the design and implement of satellite-ground synchronous experiment rather than ordinary field experiment.
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    Studies on Characteristics of the Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Developmet Trend for Wind Farms in China
    ZHANG Wen-jia, ZHANG Yong-zhan
    2007, 22 (4):  585-595.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (640KB) ( )   Save
    Wind energy,as a kind of reproducible resource without any pollution,has been developed fast all over the world in the past 20 years.Early of 2006,wind farms have been set up in 66 countries with an accumulated installed capacity up to 59.322GW,to which China has contributed 1.262GW.At present,there are 59 wind farms built in 15 provinces in China.It has shown that wind power is the most rapidly developing continuable energy resource in the whole world and in China,where the average rise ratio reached 28.6% and 42.8% in the past 10 years. According to the plan of China,wind power used for electricity will reach 30GW in 2020.Thus, study on location selection and spatial distribution of wind farms is becoming more and more important in China. Based on the pertinent data from 1991 to 2005 of both China and UK,the most interrelated countries in the developing process for wind power use compared with other four countries via correlation coefficients analysis,the evolution process of wind use could be divided into three comparative stages:examination stage,scale developing stage and transition developing stage,and future large scale developing stage.Compared with UK, it could be forecasted that the number of wind farms in China will increase fast,and the pattern of spatial distribution will change from convergence to cluster.With the methods of Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis(HCA)using eight variables about the nature,market and policy, checked with Discriminating Analysis(DA),wind energy development in China could be divided into three regions and eight sub-regions,which are scale developing region,steadily developing region and under-exploited region.The result indicated that the accuracy is 92.6% of the original grouped cases classified.This study is helpful for the further wind energy utilization in China.
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    Prediction on the Dynamics of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province
    ZHANG Yan-guang, LIN Zhen-shan, CHEN Ling-ling
    2007, 22 (4):  596-605.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (71KB) ( )   Save
    Water resource is not only an important material basis of socio-economic development,but also an irreplaceable natural resource.Water resources carrying capacity is an importance part of regional natural resources carrying capacity,which is a restriction factor in the region tightly short of water resources whether can support harmonious devplopment of population,economy and environment.A dynamic model is set up in this paper and the water resources carrying capacity in the next 20 years in Shandong Province is predicted by three kinds of projects.The results indicate that water resources carrying capacity equilibrium indexes are all smaller than a zero during the next 20 years under the three kinds of projects,demonstrating that the water resources carrying capacity responded socio-economic system can’t carry.From project 1,from 2006 to the year 2025,the total water demand of Shandong Province fluctuates between 270×108 and 340×108m3 with an increase of industial water consumption of 300%,but slight change in agricultural water consumption decline.From project 2,the total water demand will have a big fluctuation with an increase of nearly 300% in the next 20 years and the quantity of water resources consumed is too great,consequently,we suggest that,in the next 20 years,Shandong Province should strengthen a macro view to adjust and control the speed of GDP growth,and significantly reduce water resources consumption of unit GDP,which can truly realize science development view and sustainable development.From project 3,the fluctuation of the total water demand isn’t very great in Shandong Province,though its industry develops very fast,the industrial water demand of every increased ten thousand yuan descends greatly,the overall industrial water demand does not increase but decreases,and the agricultural water consumption also decreases.This is just what we expect.
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    The Effect of Summer Closed Fishing and the Reasonable Utilization on Hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) Resources in the East China Sea Region
    YAN Li-ping, HU Fen, LI Sheng-fa, LIU Yong, ZHOU Yong-dong, LIU Zi-fan
    2007, 22 (4):  606-612.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (239KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the data analysis on age of hairtail(Trichiurus japonicus) in the East China Sea Region from 2002 to 2003 and research result cited on fishery biology in previous studies,which were basis of the coefficient of mortality and dynamic pool model,the effect of summer closed fishing on hairtail resources,the resources utilization status,and the alteration of hairtail fishery utilization status were analyzed by the Ricker population dynamic pool model.The results showed that:as present fishery condition(tc=0.5yr,F=2.61/yr)stands,the average annual resources,catch and average individual body weight could be increased by 87%,29% and 42%,respectively,as a result of the enforcement of three months summer closed fishing in the East China Sea.Although the status of hairtail resources utilization was over-fishing,it could still endure the heavy fishing stress.The main aspect of unreasonable utilization on hairtail resources was that the ratio of young fish in the catch was high.The individual in the catch was too small comparatively,with the average body weight being 75g/ind.Compareing with F,tc influenced Y/R more greatly.The constant maintenance of the summer closed fishing policy was suggested.At the same time,reducing the fishery stress and magnifying the fishery net size should be viewed as the central aim of the hairtail resources management in the future,which is also the reasonable strategy on hairtail resources utilization at present.
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    Integrated Assessment of Eco-environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GIS and DEM Ⅱ. Climate Assessment
    LIU Xiang-mei, GUO Zhi-hua, XIAO Wen-fa,WANG Jian-li, YANG Hai-ming, HE Hong-yan
    2007, 22 (4):  613-622.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (333KB) ( )   Save
    Based on the meteorological data about the 34 meteorological stations during the period of 1973 and 2002 in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,annual mean temperature,accumulated temperature >10℃,aridity index,precipitation and precipitation variability were obtained.“Multiple regression model + Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) residuals” was used to inter-polate meteorological data,and climate thematic maps with a spatial resolution of 100m were produced.With the method of Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP),the model of integrated climate assessment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was established.The results showed that, the water and heat resource was rather abundant,the annual mean temperature was mainly between 12℃ and 19.12℃,accumulated temperature >10℃ was 4794.56 ℃,aridity index was less than 1.The annual precipitation was mainly between 1 100mm and 1 500mm,and the precipitation variability was a range of 10% to 15%.The average value of integrated climate assessment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was 5.3.The climate in the southwestern and central part was better than that in the eastern.The climate grade of the eastern part was 5 which was the lowest. The climate in the central part was quite different between the south bank and the north bank of the river.The climate grade in the northern part was above 5,while it was between 4 and 6 in the southern part,and adove 6 the southwestern part.
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    Analyses on Intra-annual Inhomogeneity Characteristic of Extreme Strong Precipitation Events in China
    YANG Jin-hu, LI Yao-hui, WANG Peng-xiang, YANG Qi-guo
    2007, 22 (4):  623-633.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (549KB) ( )   Save
    The climate research was focused mainly on change of average temperature and precipitation.Extensive researches showed that extreme climate events caused tremendous economic loss,so they were concerned by public.Based on daily precipitation datasets from 314 stations in China from 1955 to 2004,the extreme strong precipitation threshold of different stations were defined by centesimal value method.Firstly,year after year extreme strong precipitation events were counted up at different stations,then extreme strong precipitation event concentration degree (ECD) and concentration period (ECP) which reflect time distribution fea-tures were introduced,finally,intra-annual inhomogeneity characteristics of extreme strong precipitation event were analyzed by the new parameter in China.The result shows that average spatial distribution of ECD and ECP displays a “low-high-low” characteristic from Northwest China to the Southeast China,Xinjiang is the weakest region of ECD,Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau is the strongest region of ECD;and Southeast China is the earliest region of ECP,while Southwest China,central North China and centrel Northeast China are the latest region of ECP.It is proved that relative greater regional difference exists in the anomalous spatial distribution of ECD and ECP.In terms of regional average,western Northwest China the most scattered region of ECD,and Northeast China is the most concentrated region of ECD.It is also found that ECP is equivalent in Northeast China,eastern Northwest China,North China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,which is apparently later than that of the other regions.The middle and lower Yangtze River is the earliest region,in addition the long-term tendencies of ECD and ECP are inconsistent in various regions,but their period of vibration characteristic is basically consistent.In recent 50 years the change of ECP showed a 2-4yr,7-9yr and 13-15yr period of vibration and the change of reflected a 2-4yr,6-8yr and 11-13yr period of vibration in various regions.
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    The Applied Research of Remote Sensing Material in Qinghai Grassland Resources Monitoring and Appraisal
    YAN Liang-dong, YIN Qing-jun, ZHANG Hai-zhen, MIN Qing-wen, WU Su-xia, FU Yang
    2007, 22 (4):  640-648,675-676.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (641KB) ( )   Save
    Using the vegetation index (NDVI) monitored by EOS/MODIS,NOAA/AVHRR satellites, and the grass yield and vegetation coverage determined on the ground,and according to the principle of remote sensing monitoring,combining rearch work on key spots with that in other areas,the relational patterns between vegetation index and grazing yield,vegetation index and vegetation coverage were established.And the method of the grassland resources monitored by remote sensing and their appraisal was produced.The results showed that in 2004 the grassland resources of Qinghai Province decreased gradually from the southeast to the northwest,the area with the highest yield was in the south of Huangnan Prefecture and the southeast of Golog Prefecture,and the area with the lowest yield was in the northwest of Qaidam Basin.The distributing status of natural grassland resources for the last 20 years didn’t change,but the productivity of the grassland was dropping gradually,and the grassland resources were reducing year by year,and in Golog alone the average grass yield dropped by 4.04% compared with that of 1986,with a total grass yield reduction of 851000t and the reduction of theoretical number of animals carried 631100 sheep.The warming and drying climatic changing trend was the main reason for the descending and degenerating of the natural grassland productivity in Qinghai Province.
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    Comments on Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration of Distributed Hydrological Model
    WANG Zhong-gen, XIA Jun, LIU Chang-ming, OU Chun-ping, ZHANG Yong-yong
    2007, 22 (4):  649-655.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (191KB) ( )   Save
    The sensitivity analysis and calibration is a key and difficult issue to the application and development of the distributed hydrological model.In this paper,several typical and effective global optimization calibration and sensitivity analysis methods are inducted,which include the flowing methods:Genetic Algorithm(GA),Shuffled Complex Evolution(SCE),Bayesian Method (BM), Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis(RSA),Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE) and so on. The advantages and disadvantages between the computer automatic calibration and the artificial calibration are discussed, and then we prospect the future development of the sensitivity analysis and calibration of the distributed hydrological model.
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    Applied Study on Evaluation Method for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on GIS Techniques in Typical North District
    PAN Xing-yao, XIA Jun, LI Fa-hu, LIU Hong-lu, MA Ming, WANG Cui-zhe, LI Rong-xin
    2007, 22 (4):  664-671.  doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.016
    Abstract ( )   PDF (345KB) ( )   Save
    As a principal index of water resources security,the measurement of water resources carrying Capacity is an important guidance to the sustainable regional development.Taking Tongzhou District as an example,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity based on qualitative analysis,and confirms the marginal values of each index in the critical situations.In addition,grid anatomy method of GIS was applied to construct a dataset about the index system to get objective and correct appraisal of water resources carrying capacity.Water resources carrying capacity dynamic tendency within the region was also studied by overload function of GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.The results show the water resources carrying capacity decreases rapidly with the increase of distance from the downtown to the rural areas.Moreover,it can be predicted that the water resources carrying capacity will be high on the whole in 2020.
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