中国地下水市场发展迅速，然而关于市场特征在不同地区的差异性的研究并不多见。论文利用河北和河南两省的实地调查数据，分析了中国北方地区地下水市场特征的地区差异，及其与当地水资源禀赋的关系。研究发现，地下水市场发展在不同地区之间存在显著的不同步性，因而表现出显著不同的运作特征和方式。进一步研究发现，这些市场特征差异和当地的水资源禀赋状况密切相关。因此在地下水市场相关政策的制定过程中，必须充分考虑各地的水资源禀赋状况，并深刻理解其对于地下水市场发展和运行的含义。图1表5参10

土地是人类赖以生存和发展的基础，土地资源稀缺是人们集约利用土地的直接动力。基于我国土地资源的基本国情，集约利用土地是我国城市化发展的必然选择。从深圳市城市土地利用的现状分析入手，简要分析总结了深圳市土地利用的基本特征和存在问题，采用多因素综合评价模型对深圳市土地集约利用状况进行研究，分别计算了经济效益指标、社会效益指标、生态效益指标、环境效益指标以及深圳市土地集约利用综合效益指数，并按照综合指数对深圳市土地集约利用情况进行了分析探讨，最后提出若干有益于深圳市土地集约利用的对策和建议。与国内一些城市相比较，深圳市集约用地水平较高。但相对于香港、新加坡等城市，其土地集约水平不够高。深圳政府需要根据社会经济发展水平和深圳市土地利用现状制定一系列的指导方针政策来促进城市土地的集约利用。图4表6参19

土地利用/覆被变化是影响流域水文过程的重要因素。基于太湖流域在全国的重要性及太湖流域LUCC洪水效应研究的迫切性，选择太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究区，利用分布式水文模型HEC-HMS模拟5种土地利用/覆被情景下的2次典型洪水过程（5年一遇的台风型洪涝和5年一遇的梅雨型洪涝），定量区分单一土地利用/覆被对洪峰的影响程度。结果表明，对于同场降雨，5种土地利用/覆被情景下的洪峰流量大小顺序为：林地＜疏林灌丛＜草地＜耕地＜建设用地，峰现时间先后依次是建设用地、耕地、草地、疏林灌丛、林地。同样的土地利用变化对洪峰的影响程度，5年一遇的台风型洪水比5年一遇的梅雨型洪水反应剧烈。对洪峰流量影响最大的土地利用变化是其它用地变化为建设用地。对于同场降雨，5种土地利用/覆被情景下的洪水水文要素（洪峰流量、滞时）之间存在显著的定量关系。建设用地大大改变了洪峰形态，使流域原有的坦化洪水波形的能力降低，而林地则具有削减和延缓洪峰的作用。

绿洲土地利用对地下水矿化度时空变化影响模拟的关键在于如何在模型中体现土地利用的影响。论文在已建立对流－弥散溶质运移方程模拟地下水矿化度模型的基础上，把土地利用对地下水矿化度的影响视做地下水矿化度模型的源汇项，作为面上因子处理，并且把土地利用对地下水溶质变化的影响方式归纳为两点：入渗水把溶质带入地下水体和排泄地下水带走溶质。入渗水带入地下水的溶质数量就是从土壤剖面中淋洗到地下水的盐分，可以用试验确定一定入渗水量下土体脱盐率的方法计算。地下水排泄带走的溶质数量可以用排泄的地下水量与其矿化度积的方法计算。土地利用单元的土体含盐量和地下水矿化度用GIS和FEFLOW结合计算。入渗水带入地下水的溶质数量和排泄水带出地下水的溶质数量的和即为土地利用单元上的源汇量。把模拟结果与历史情况结合分析，证实预测的地下水矿化度变化趋势与历史上类似的土地利用引起的地下水矿化度结果是比较符合的，证明这种处理土地利用对地下水矿化度影响的原则和方法是可行的。而且说明目前的土地利用模式发展下去会导致地下水矿化度的上升，将导致土地盐渍化程度加重，从而影响到土地利用。

台湾浅滩的沉积物由分选优、磨园度很好的中细砂组成，其中含有数量较丰的贝壳碎片、海滩岩和玄武岩砾等。以水深30m计算，浅滩的总面积为1.5×10⁴km²。浅滩砂一直在巨大暴风浪和合成海流的作用下处于改造和运动状态，浅滩上几乎没有或极少底栖生物，可称谓为海底 “沙漠”。由于浅滩砂数量巨大而浅滩区水浅，它将是一项潜力很大的建材砂矿资源，也是海峡两岸共同的天然财富。下一步的堪研工作必须两岸海洋科技界和产业界联合进行，这片浅滩砂必将造福于两岸人民。

气候变化研究主要集中在温度和降水的长期变化趋势及其影响方面，对于控制陆地生态系统和大气之间的质能交换的重要气候因子——蒸散，研究相对较少。蒸散在气候系统中扮演着重要角色，它是多个气候因子的综合作用的结果，如日照、温度、风速、湿度等。蒸散也是陆地和大气间能量、水汽传送和气候变化监测的敏感因子。蒸散的变化趋势更能反映气候变化的状况，并对农业生产、流域开发和人民生活产生重要影响。论文分析了青藏高原及其周边的101个气象台站在20世纪后40年Penman-Monteith潜在蒸散（PET）的变化趋势及其空间分布。研究显示青藏高原PET在所有季节呈现减少的趋势，年平均PET倾向率为-13.1mm/10年或年总量的2.0％。在PET整体负的趋势下，1970和1980年代在平均值上的波动幅度大约是在600到700mm范围。青藏高原空间性的趋势分布随季节性波动全年仍保持稳定。PET减小趋势的台站冬春（80％）多于夏秋（58％）。尽管总体趋势是负的，但有些台站PET表现还是正的趋势，最大年的正负PET趋势台站在柴达木盆地的南部，分别是84.8mm/10年和-79.5mm/10年。论文还进一步探索了青藏高原不同气候因子对PET趋势的影响。在青藏高原，风速是影响PET趋势最重要的因子，相对湿度次之，而日照时数的变化作用不明显。由于青藏高原上稳定的日间温度限制了温度趋势对PET的影响。因此，负蒸散趋势被认为与地区性季风环流强度的降低有关，而非日照时间的减少。也就是说，降低的PET趋势显示出与全球变暖情景中预测的水文循环增强相反。由于不均匀的青藏高原气象台站分布，进一步的探索最好增加遥感方法获取没有台站地区的PET数据，以便对整个青藏高原的PET的时空分布进行深入研究。图4表5参63

尽管中国农村的地下水市场在最近10多年来得到了快速发展，然而相关的研究文献却凤毛麟角。通过使用来自于中国北方两省的150个农户的微观调查数据，论文描述了中国农村地下水市场参与者的主要特征，并分析了影响农户卖水行为的主要因素。研究发现：那些相对富裕的、在农业活动中具有比较优势的、在本地拥有较高的社会地位的农户更有可能成为地下水市场中的卖方，而交易成本的大小也会影响到农户对于地下水市场的参与。图1表6参23

小尺度耕地综合评价是小区域范围内耕地质量保护和管理的重要手段。研究对影响丁庄镇耕地质量的土壤养分状况、耕地立地条件、耕地理化性状和耕地土壤污染状况分别进行了评价。采用土壤图和土地利用现状图叠置方法划分评价单元，系统聚类和DELPHI法筛选评价因素，层次分析法确定权重，模糊评价法确定耕地质量等级。研究结果表明：①丁庄镇耕地土壤养分含量较高，一二级地占总面积的54.41%；②立地条件和理化性状较好，一二级地分别占总面积的58.26%和60.00%；③土壤污染较轻的一二级地占61.02%，主要集中在中部和北部地区；④耕地综合质量状况总体良好，其中一级地占总面积的21.17%，二级地占31.60%，三级占29.38%，四级占17.85%，耕地等级分布与当地实际产出相一致。

论文的目的是调查水资源利用状况，分析地下水资源在使用过程中存在的问题以及农民通过机井私有化而改变水资源利用的一些反应状况。研究中以河北省农村地下水资源利用为例，论文中所用到的数据主要来自2006年在河北省随机调查的20个村。研究结果表明，河北农村地下水资源的利用主要分为3个阶段：20世纪50年代早期，农民开始打井利用地下水资源；从70年代开始，地下水资源的利用进入了加速期；而从80年代中后期，地下水资源被过度利用，随着机井数量的继续增加，一些环境问题不断出现，例如水位的下降等。研究发现，伴随着水位的下降，农民也逐渐做出了适应性反应，他们开始将一些机井的所有权和管理权私有化。而机井的私有化将导致高附加值的作物面积增加（例如，蔬菜和水果等），同时机井的私有化也同作物产量提高之间还存在着积极的关系。最后，研究提出，在设计地下水资源管理政策时，政策制定者需要充分掌握农民的反应，通过正确引导农民的反应提高水资源使用效率。图1表6参11

黄河下游引黄灌区地下水埋深通常较浅，冬小麦生长季存在对地下水的利用，论文应用稳定同位素方法研究冬小麦对地下水的利用特征。在中国科学院禹城综合试验站开展实验，通过分析不同灌溉处理条件下土壤水和植物茎水δ¹⁸O值之间的关系，应用同位素线性混合模型估算了冬小麦不同生育期对地下水的利用比例。研究结果表明，水的¹⁸O信息能很好地揭示冬小麦对不同层次土壤水的利用特征，雨养处理，40%田间持水量处理和现行灌溉制度处理下冬小麦在返青后对地下水的利用分别占其总耗水量的28%，22%和4%左右。研究结果显示适度的灌溉有利于促进作物对不同层次土壤水分的稳定利用，而现行的大田灌溉方式则抑制了作物对地下水资源的利用。

目前我国农业劳动力机会成本上升趋势明显。于是劳动力资源成为农业生产决策的最关键因子；农户倾向于选择劳动生产率高的土地利用类型，同时促使部分劣质土地退出农业生产（即出现农地边际化）。论文以宁夏回族自治区为例，利用统计数据和农户调查数据来验证上述推断。研究结果表明劳动力机会成本上升对农地利用变化产生明显影响。具体为：①2003年以来，宁夏劳动生产率高的农作物（马铃薯、水稻、玉米）种植面积扩大，劳动生产率低的农作物（小麦）种植面积则缩小；②农地利用结构趋于单一化；③部分劣质土地退出农业生产。

综合应用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型，分析了江苏省资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。计算了江苏省1985~2006年的生态足迹及能源足迹、耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹，在此基础上，对GDP与各种生态足迹之间的长期均衡关系与因果关系进行计量分析。结果表明：GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间存在协整关系，且总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹是GDP的单向Granger原因，林地足迹与GDP之间是双向的Granger原因。并建立了GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间的误差修正模型，利用模型分析发现短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到91.84%。研究结论揭示了江苏省的经济增长方式属于资源消耗型，总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹是影响江苏省经济增长的主要原因。因此，必须合理利用资源，加强生态环境保护，调整产业结构，发展循环经济，以实现江苏省资源、环境、经济之间的可持续发展。

选择黄河源头玛多县，利用遥感手段分析了该地区1990~2000年和2000~2004年的湿地动态变化，采用灰色关联度法，分析了不同类型的湿地与各气象因子的关联系数。结果表明：在1990~2004年间，黄河源湿地呈现持续萎缩的状态，减少速率平均为2864.48 hm²/a 。其中前10年和后4年平均减小速率分别为2329.81和4201.14hm²/a，后4年的变化速度是前10年的1.8倍。高原湖泊处于比较稳定的状态，转移概率小于3%，而高原沼泽湿地和河流湿地处于非常不稳定的状态，与其他土地类型的转移概率分别达到40.16%~38.37%和46.27%~40.25%。不同的湿地类型与气象因子的关联度是不同的，沼泽与日照和蒸发关联度最大，湖泊与蒸发和降水关联度最大，河流与气温和蒸发关联度最大。

耕地是维系粮食安全的重要资源，复种指数是耕地的一个重要属性。论文从复种指数提取方法、复种指数应用以及复种指数潜力三个方面，对国内外在复种指数领域的研究进展及其特点进行了总结归纳，发现遥感技术在复种指数的提取中发挥着重要的作用，复种指数的应用呈现了多元化的趋势，而复种指数潜力也存在着由定性向定量化发展的趋势。未来，复种指数提取方法的改进、复种指数的动态机制以及影响复种指数提高的原因分析等将成为重要的研究内容。

在赭山风景区选取了3种类型的游道，每种类型游道上分别选取一条与游道垂直的样带，每条样带内按照距游道距离的不同设置4个样点，每个样点的取样面积为30×30cm2、取枯枝落叶层并以5cm为一个层垂直向下取4层土样，用手拣法和网筛法拾取大型土壤动物。共捕获大型土壤动物2039头，隶属于3门8纲22个类群。运用Shannon-Wiener指数(H')、集聚度等指标对不同样带和样点的不同土层中捕获的大型土壤动物类群和数量进行对比分析得出：①赭山风景区大型土壤动物受到游憩活动的影响明显，游憩活动量越大土壤动物捕获量越少；②由近游道向远离游道的水平方向上大型土壤动物的类群和数量呈现递增规律；③在垂直分布上土壤动物向表层集聚明显，游憩活动的影响导致大型土壤动物种类和数量的表层聚集度由近游道样点向远离游道样点逐渐增大。此外，在游憩活动的影响下，大型土壤动物在水平分布上表现出一定的边缘效应。

The construction of rural energy resources in minority regions is a special field of Chinese energy sustainable development. It is an important part of construction of resources-economical society and the socialist new countryside.Based on the investigation of energy consumption in Lanping and Shangri-La counties,this paper analyzed the characters and problems of the energy consumption in poverty-stricken minority areas of southwestern mountain region.The domestic energy consumption per capita of Lanping and Shangri-La is 512 kgce and 879 kgce,respectively,much lower than the average of the world. The structure is also irrational,the percentage of firewood utilization in Lanping and Shangri-La is 85% and 98%.The utilization of renewable energy,e.g.solar energy,biogas and hydropower is 7.0% and 1.8%,respectively.The result is a series of ecological and environmental problems.Some pieces of advice on the exploitation and utilization of modern bio-energy are given:enforcing energy policy,making plans of exploitation and utilization of rural energy resource and seeking financial and technical support from developed countries,etc.

跨国水资源包括国际河流、湖泊及其大小支流，或者国际河流的入口和出口（通常称为国际流域）以及处于两国或更多国家管辖之内的地下水系统。环境保护是世界各国应承担的义务，流域各国在自己境内利用跨国水资源或进行其他活动时，有义务通过国际合作或者采取合理的单边措施，保护国际流域水资源，防止对其他流域国造成重大损害。规范跨国水资源保护问题的国际法律文件包括全球性水条约、区域性和流域水条约、政府间组织的决议和宣言、国际法学术团体的决议和规则等。根据这些文件的规定以及国际社会的实践，流域各国应当采取的保护国际流域水资源的措施包括但不限于环境影响评价、交流信息、监测、通知、紧急情况下的援助、控制污染、公众参与等，这些措施有助于预防和减少损害。中国在保护相关跨国水资源方面也采取了环境影响评价、交流信息等措施，但是需要加强和改进。参17

为了对北京经济系统物质利用效率和污染物质对环境的影响进行分析，论文在物质流分析方法的基础上，根据投入产出表的原理，探索性的编制了2004年北京物质流投入产出表，并对基本结果进行了分析。结果表明，2004年北京的进口物质总量比出口多2826.22×10⁴t，经济发展主要依靠从区外进口物质，是显著的外界资源依赖型发展模式。研究也表明，北京地区的废气排放中CO₂占有很大的比重，是影响北京环境质量的一个重要因素。同时，北京固体废弃物和废水的再资源化利用率比较低，分别占直接投入物质的0.25%和5.20%。研究建议，北京迫切需要进一步改进经济增长方式，提高资源的使用效率和利用率，尤其是要通过技术进步和产业结构调整提高资源的再利用率，减少对环境的影响。

大兴安岭是我国首批实施天然林保护工程的重点林区，1998年开始实施分类经营，区划为生态公益林区(禁伐区和限伐区)和商品林区。该区划是否反映自然条件、分类措施是否有利于功能的发挥，尤其是商品林区是否能够承担现有的采伐任务，成为林业经营的焦点。论文对大兴安岭呼中林业局分类经营格局的空间分析显示，区划充分考虑了自然因素，对天然林特征和分布与自然立地条件间关系的认识和划分合理；在此基础上重点分析了1989~2000年3种经营区内森林的数量和质量变化：商品林区开发以来一直是重点产林区，在1989年针叶林面积比例(41%)就小于该区域的原始状态(72%)、呼中林业局(47%)以及限伐区(54.9%)和禁伐区(47.8%)，景观破碎化程度大于其它区域；至2000年，继续逆向变化，针叶林比例降至27%，仍小于林业局(31%)、禁伐区(32%)和限伐区(39%)，分布更加破碎化，质量愈加下降，中幼龄林、公顷蓄积小于80m³/hm²和郁闭度小于0.6的森林面积比例分别达84%、52%和73%，森林数量和质量仍为3个区域中最差，难以支持现有的计划产量。因此，该林业局需要继续缩减产量，近期不安排主伐，森林培育仍为主要目标。限伐区和禁伐区的针叶林比例相对较高，但也都低于40%，需继续分别实施抚育措施和严格的禁伐制度。论文空间定量化地分析了大兴安岭的限额采伐与实际植被状况的差距，对进一步改善林业政策具有重要的指导意义。

中国城市化进程中的能源消费有什么特征？论文首先在生产与生活能源消费之间进行区别，然后在吸收结构分解法内核的基础上，提出了一种新的简单易行的能源分解方法，对1985～2006年间中国能源消费量的变化进行分解和时序比较分析。结果表明：在近20年中国的城市化进程中，生产能源消费始终占据支配地位，但生活能源消费已经加快；在全国范围上讲，从长期看，产业结构调整没有起到减少能源消费的作用，反而向着增加的方向发展；目前，中国城市化过程中的能源消费处于重要的规模扩张阶段，技术进步一直是能源消费量减少的关键因素；中国的节能潜力巨大，不仅仅在技术领域，而且存在于产业结构中；从各产业能源消费上看，节能应是全面的，不仅仅在单耗大户上，还应注意增长快的产业。

As one of the important mining cities, Anshan was also one of the biggest steel industrial bases in China. In order to offer suggestions for the sustainable development of Anshan city, we should research the status and developing trend of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city. Based on the unique meaning of mining cities, we established the indicator system about ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city. Using entropy weight and integrated index evaluation method, we researched the situation of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city during the 10th Five-year Plan, and then we discussed the developing trend of ecological carrying capacity in 2010. The results showed that: during the 10th Five-year Plan, the integrated ecological carrying capacity in Anshan city was in a critical safe state; however, it was increasing throughout the period with an increase from 0.44 to 0.60. Pressure and support indicators were also increasing on the whole, being 0.61 in 2005 but inferior to the safety state. However, the indexes of economic pressure, resource pressure and ecological health were still low. Economic pressure was lower than the critical value from 2001 to 2004; resource pressure was lower than the critical value from 2001 to 2003; and ecological health was lower than it from 2001 to 2002. They would restrict the development of ecological carrying capacity in Anshan. The ecological carrying capacity changed from over loading to surplus, and the harmony degree of economy was increasing gradually. According to the layout level in Anshan city, the integrated ecological carrying capacity would be in a comparatively safe state and no indicators would be lower than the critical safety values. In addition, both the carrying degree and harmony degree of ecological carrying capacity would be increased. By the method of integrated index evaluation method, the ecological carrying capacity of Anshan city during the 10th Five-year Plan was well reflected and forecasted, which would be a good example for the research of ecological carrying capacity in other areas.

In the study of sustainability assessment of cultivated land use, it is crucial but difficult to establish an index system. Although some research progress has been made recently, there're still many problems to be solved. For instance, traditional evaluation indices of economic profit can be influenced by various factors, including market supply and demand, fluctuation of monetary value, unit yields and growth periods of different crops. Furthermore, the traditional methods do not take the consumption of free environmental resources and their contributions into consideration. The theory of emergy analysis presented by H. T. Odum overcomes these insufficiencies in the eco-economic system evaluation by the traditional cost theory and market value theory, and offers an important standard to measure the rationality of cultivated land use. However, when the theory of emergy analysis is applied to the evaluation of sustainable cultivated land use independently, it's difficult to analyze agricultural pollution, policies and some other factors, which can be done directly or indirectly by traditional methods. Accordingly, on the basis of the traditional evaluation methods, the emergy theory is introduced and a new index system is established, in order to offset the deficiencies of both traditional methods and the theory of emergy analysis, and make contributions to the research of sustainable use of cultivated land.Taking Nanjing as an example, the study combines the traditional methods with the theory of emergy analysis to establish a new index system from three aspects of economic, ecological and social sustainability. And then, the study computes the weights of all indices by the method of AHP, to evaluate the cultivated land use from the year 1995 to 2004. The research indicates that the sustainable use of cultivated land in Nanjing experienced two phases. In the first phase (1995-1998), the sustainable use index of cultivated land decreased by 4.30%, from 1 in 1995 to 0.9570 in 1998, mainly because the economic sustainability index decreased to 0.8036 in 1998; in the second phase (1998 to 2004), the sustainable use index of cultivated land increased to 1.1123 in 2004, the highest level in the research period, mainly because the economic sustainability index increased to 1.0898, and the ecological sustainability index to 1.1762 in 2004. On the whole, the cultivated land use system is developing towards sustainability, conforming to the conclusions of some relative researches. All these indicate that it is feasible to apply the theory of emergy analysis to the evaluation of sustainable use of cultivated land. Compared with the traditional evaluation methods, the evaluation index system established in this paper can reflect the sustainability of cultivated land use more objectively.

生态足迹模型是分析人类对自然资本的需求和自然资本的供给情况的有力工具。为更加准确地核算中小尺度的生态足迹，论文建立了“省公顷”模型，明确了均衡因子和产量因子的含义与计算方法。在计算方法上，首次引入热值的概念，克服了不同类型生物产品不能直接加总的难题。以浙江省为例，应用本方法测算了2005年各类土地的均衡因子和各市土地的产量因子。其均衡因子分别是：耕地为2.82s-nhm²/hm²；草地为0.11s-nhm²/hm²；林地为0.35s-nhm²/hm²；水域为0.17s-nhm²/hm²等。结果与国际上通行的数值和国家公顷下的数值存在较大差异，但通过分析认为，文章的均衡因子和产量因子客观地表达了浙江省的实际情况，存在差异是合理的。最后，指出文章所构建的方法简单易行，结果合理，该计算方法可推广到国家层面；在进行省域层面的生态足迹分析时，模型应采用“省公顷”对应的均衡因子和产量因子，以使分析更加具有实际意义。

论文利用小三江平原区域的土地利用－湿地景观数据库,提取别拉洪河流域地形、土地利用和排水工程等数据，进行流域景观制图，包括3个时期，1967年、1983年和2005年，并将该流域划分出上、中、下游3个分区。在此基础上利用Arcview3.2软件的空间分析功能，辅助FRAGSTATS生态学软件对湿地景观图进行计算和分析6个景观格局指标。结果表明：排水工程之前，各分区自然湿地覆盖率均达到90%以上，且呈大块连续状分布，自然状态保存完好；排水渠大量修建之后，由于水文条件的改变，导致湿地类型的演替和湿地格局的变化。沼泽地因排水基本消失，草甸及其他沼泽类型也大片被排干，取而代之的是以大面积的旱地等非湿地景观，湿地以小的斑块体镶嵌其中的流域景观。文章最后提出下一步的研究工作。

The situation of supply and demand of fertilizer was not clear in China which was resulted from the unreasonable policy. This paper analyzed the supply and demand of fertilizer at national, regional and monthly levels. The results showed the total supply would match the total demand of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers currently. The self sufficient rate of N, P₂O₅ and K₂O was 100%,95% and 29% respectively in China in 2005. The self sufficient rate of DAP,NPK and potassium chloride was 78%,81% and 23% respectively. Although the supply of some products could not match the demand currently, it was forecasted to be balanced in the future years according to the rapid development of industry. Therefore, the conflict of fertilizer supply and demand depends not at national level but at space-time level. The unbalanced situation in some regions has been widened in recent years because the fertilizer industry was concentrating in the regions which were abundant in raw materials. For example, a total of 23 provinces can not produce enough fertilizer for their respective farmland demand. The traditional industrial regions in East China have been transferred from export regions to import regions in recent years. The unbalanced supply in these regions always happened in some seasons. For example, the surplus of urea between November to next March was proved to be 9 million tons in the whole country. But in July, 2 million tons shortage of supply happened in Guangdong, Guangxi and other regions. Similar problem happened to other products, such as 1 million tons gap for DAP in North China in October and 1 million tons for MOP in South China in May, July and August. The unbalanced supply in some regions and some seasons resulted in the huge transportation demand and risk for price fluctuation. It is also one of the reasons for quickening development of industry. Therefore, balance the supply and consumption between regions and seasons is a necessary strategy for a sound development of industry and agriculture policy in the next few years.To store the surplus supply in off-season and release them in midseason is a best way. According to the integrated analysis, it was proposed to store 15% of the total demand can realize the goal, of which 10% should be stored in off-season to release the burden of producer and 5% should be stored in midseason to ensure enough supply. The central government should set up a scientific fertilizer storage system to select the sound storage site, time and amount based on the changes of supply and demand situation.

论文以深圳为案例，在评述国内外研究的基础上，利用遥感数据、详查数据和政府部门资料等多种数据源，引入数字地形模型、格网、缓冲区和空间叠加等GIS分析技术以及因子分析、典型相关分析和多元回归分析等定量分析方法，系统全面地开展了快速城市化背景下土地利用变化的自然和人文因素综合研究。研究结果揭示了深圳土地利用变化结构及空间特征，定量阐释了深圳各类型土地变化的主要影响因素，并归纳出了各类型土地利用变化与影响因子的函数关系，揭示了自然和人文影响因子对土地利用变化的影响作用大小和方向，丰富和拓展了土地利用变化的影响机制研究。

With the increase of population, land carrying capacity and food safety have been attracted great attention worldwide. From the point of man-grain relationship, based on GIS techniques,by setting up the land carrying capacity(LCC) and the land carrying capacity index(LCCI) models, this paper firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamic patterns of land carrying capacity of China between 1949 and 2005 at county, province and country level. Choosing 2005 as the typical year, this paper then evaluates the land carrying capacity of 264 pastoral(semi-pastoral)regions, 663 urban regions and 592 poverty-stricken regions of China. The result shows that: (1) From 1949 to 2005, with the increase of grain production, the land carrying capacity of China has been improved conspicuously, but for the rapid population growth, it still only balances with the low level grain consumption. (2) Over the last 25 years (1980-2005), the number of overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the man-grain relationship was bettered gradually, but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China. (3) At county level, there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 whic accounted for 68.26% of the total with a population of 649 million, while in 1990,2000 and 2005, the number of overloading counties was 1066, 1133 and 1087 respectively,indicating that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years; as for spatial distribution, the surplus counties are mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions, such as Northeast Plain, North China Plain, Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain etc., and overloading counties are mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity, such as Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau etc. and economy developed urban regions, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai etc. (4) Grassland husbandry led to great improvement of the land carrying capacity of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions, while urban regions were overloaded due to population concentration and more than half of the poverty-stricken regions were overloaded with critical natural environment and poor economic condition.

集对分析是研究客观事物之间确定性与不确定性联系的系统理论和方法，核心是计算事物之间的联系度。提出了根据区域用水情况，利用实际指标值建立用水水平评价标准的方法。运用集对分析理论，对黄河下游沿黄地区的用水水平进行定量研究。研究表明：综合用水水平由高到低排序为艾山—洛口区段（Ⅳ区）、洛口—利津区段（Ⅴ区）、花园口—高村区段（Ⅰ区）、孙口—艾山区段（Ⅲ区）、高村—孙口区段（Ⅱ区），总的评价结果与多层次灰关联综合评价模型一致。集对分析法具有简单实用、评价结果客观等特点，文章所建立的评价标准与集对分析理论相结合有效地解决了区域用水水平的评价问题。

Many studies has been taken on calculating the vegetation ecological water requirement using plant coefficient(K_p)and potential evapotranspiration(PET),while attention is rarely paid to restriction of soil water deficit and very little information is available on K_p of different communities especially on the Loess Plateau. According to the succession sequence of vegetation in Ziwuling forest region of the Loess Plateau, herbaceous community, shrub community, early forest community and climax forest community were selected to investigate the water consumption and ecological adaptability of different succession stage, considering the soil water stress simultaneously. Using the data getting from long-term experiments in situ, plant coefficients of different communities were calculated in this study, the actual evapotranspiration(ET_a)and mean soil water contents during the growing stage for five representative communities were compared, and the impacts of soil water change on water absorption of plant roots and soil water availability were analyzed.The results showed that,in different succession stages of vegetation,ET_a of communities was mainly influenced by precipitation, with no notable distinction among different communities(P＞0.05); soil water content of the early stage of forest community was significantly higher than other communities, and that of the herbaceous community was clearly higher than the two shrub communities(P＜0.05); the plant coefficients of the shrub communities were the highest, that of herbaceous community was the second and that of climax community was higher than early stage of forest community; the two forest communities had significantly higher soil water availability than the herbaceous and shrub communities (P＜0.05),which might consume more soil water and aggravate the drought of soil.Therefore, not only the plant coefficients but also the soil water availability should be considered in vegetation construction. And the soil water restriction factor should not be ignored in the calculation of vegetation ecological water requirement and the adaptability evaluation.

以城市化流域——秦淮河流域为例，采用SWAT分布式水文模型，结合遥感和地理信息系统技术，对流域1987~2000年的土地利用变化对水文过程的影响进行探讨和研究。结果表明，13年中秦淮河流域的土地利用变化对流域的径流影响较大，2000年土地利用情景相对于1987年的模拟结果，1980s~1990s年径流增加约为5%~6%；在相同的土地利用变化条件下，枯水年的水文响应最强，其次是平水年，丰水年响应最弱；在任意降雨条件，林地向建设用地转化，其径流系数增加0.3以上，水田向建设用地、旱地向建设用地转化，其径流系数增加0.2~0.3，林地向旱地、水田向旱地、林地向水田的转化，其径流系数增加幅度在0.1以下。