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    System dynamics simulation on China's energy consumption in 2050: Based on the policy scenarios of key industries
    HE Ze, ZHOU Yan-nan, LIU Yi
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES    2020, 35 (11): 2696-2707.   DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201111
    Abstract287)   HTML0)    PDF (1670KB)(58)      

    Based on the new trend of world energy development in 2050 and the reality of China's development, how to realize energy transition and ensure oil and gas demand is a major forward-looking issue concerning China's national security. This study simulates the changes in the quantity and structure of primary energy of China based on the policy scenarios of key industries. And it also analyzes the demand of oil and gas in China and its oversea dependence in 2050. The results show that: (1) By implementing the active energy transition policies, the value of primary energy consumption is expected to peak in 2040, with a maximum value of 5755 to 7000 mtce. For different types of energy, coal consumption can reach its peak by 2030, oil consumption will peak in 2040 under both transition scenarios, and natural gas consumption will peak in 2035 under accelerated transition scenario. (2) From the perspective of advancing the transition of the energy structure, China's coal consumption will account for 21% of the total energy amount in 2050 under the transition scenario, and coal will account for less than 10% of total energy consumption by 2050 under the accelerated transition scenario. In both of the transition and the accelerated transition scenarios, oil and gas consumption will account for 30% of China's total energy amount in 2050. If a more active transition policy is implemented, no-fossil energy will be the most important energy sources for China in 2050 in the accelerated transition scenario. (3) High demand and relatively low domestic production of oil/gas will lead to a high level of China's oversea dependence in a mid- and long-term trend. Therefore, the supply of oil and gas to the national energy security in 2050 cannot be ignored based on the policy scenarios of key industries. This research can provide a scientific basis for the policy making of China's energy security.

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    Evolving characteristics and driving mechanism of coal consumption in ChinaBased on the perspective of supply and demand
    WANG Chang-jian, WANG Fei, YE Yu-yao, ZHANG Xin-lin, SU Yong-xian, JIANG Lu, LI Zeng, ZHANG Hong-ou
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES    2020, 35 (11): 2708-2723.   DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201112
    Abstract264)   HTML10)    PDF (2594KB)(55)      

    China has been the world's largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter. The evolution trend of China's coal consumption and its driving mechanism have always been a topic of concern to researchers and policy makers. Taking China's total coal consumption of 2.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2013 as the key time point, a comparative analysis of the differences in the dynamics of coal consumption mechanisms has been conducted. An extended LMDI model based on the classical IPAT identity and an input output-structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) model were adopted to determine the main driving factors for coal consumption in China. The impacts and influences of various factors on coal consumption were different in different development stages. China's coal consumption was mainly driven by the effects of economic growth, energy intensity, industrial structure and energy structure. The slowdown in GDP growth since the economy entered the "New Normal", the in-depth adjustment of the industrial structure and energy structure, and the continuous decline in energy consumption intensity were the key to the decline in total coal consumption since 2013. Based on the demand-side structural decomposition analysis, China's coal consumption was mainly affected by capital formation, exports, and urban household consumption. The embodied coal consumption of Chinese exports has peaked after the global financial crisis in 2007. Coal consumption induced by urban household consumption surpassed export-induced coal consumption in 2017, which became the second largest demand-side driver of China's total coal consumption growth. Based on the perspective of final demand, coal consumption by sectoral industry performed a changing feature of "driven by exports→driven by capital formation→driven by urban household consumption". The industry's coal resource dependence has gradually decreased. China's total coal consumption has entered a peak stage with the maximum value appearing in 2013.

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    Does foreign aid boost energy outward foreign direct investment? Micro-evidence from Chinese firms
    HUANG You-xing, LI Heng-cheng, YANG Yu
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES    2020, 35 (11): 2724-2743.   DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201113
    Abstract198)   HTML3)    PDF (1102KB)(21)      

    Using a linked micro-level panel dataset, this paper formally investigates whether Chinese foreign aid stimulates the decisions of energy outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) conducted by Chinese firms. Results show strong evidence that Chinese aid significantly increases the probability of Chinese firms' decisions on energy OFDI in host countries, and the short-term effects are stronger than the accumulative effects. These results are robust with different model specifications. Furthermore, the promoting effects of Chinese foreign aid vary substantially with heterogeneous factors. Specifically, complex and advanced aid forms such as technical aid and export credit, aid for economic infrastructure, energy industry development, and host government finance, as well as the assistance to countries along the Belt and Road, significantly strengthen the promoting effects. This paper provides direct micro-evidence for the promoting effects of Chinese foreign aid on firms' energy OFDI, and also gives policy implications on the aid-driven strategy for stimulating energy OFDI.

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    Public environmental concerns, environmental regulations and energy-intensive industrial dynamics in China
    HUANG Yong-yuan, ZHU Sheng-jun
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES    2020, 35 (11): 2744-2758.   DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201114
    Abstract216)   HTML3)    PDF (5134KB)(46)      

    Energy-intensive industries refer to a kind of industry with strong energy dependence and high consumption during the production process. Their economic geography and dynamic evolution have an important impact on China's energy geography and energy security. The production process of energy-intensive industries often consumes a lot of resources and is accompanied by a large number of pollutants, and accelerates the deterioration of the local environment. Since the reform and opening up, energy-intensive exported industries have gathered in the eastern coastal areas of China in consideration of transportation location, industrial linkages and the import of raw materials. From the early 2000s, the rising cost of production has resulted in a new round of industrial transfer. Especially, since the 18th National Congress in 2012, the Chinese government has begun to intensify efforts to rectify air pollution, and residents' demand for a better environment has gradually increased. Therefore, the contradiction between the supply and demand for the good environment has gradually become an important factor affecting the dynamics of energy-intensive industries. At the same time, with the development of multimedia and internet technologies, the public is playing an increasingly important role in environmental governance. So how does public environmental concern affect energy-intensive industries dynamics and will the public environmental concern influence the relationship between environmental regulations and the dynamics of energy-intensive industries? Based on the Baidu index and Chinese Customs Trade Statistics from 2011 to 2016, the Logit model is used to comprehensively discuss the impact of environmental pressures on the dynamics of energy-intensive industries in China. This paper divides environmental pressures into public environmental concerns, formal and informal regulations. The empirical results show that public environmental concerns, formal and informal environmental regulations can lower down the probability of local energy-intensive industries entering, while environmental recommendations and proposals (one indicator of informally environmental regulations) have no significant effect. Besides, in areas with high public environmental concerns, formal and informal environmental regulations have a stronger inhibitory effect on the entry of energy-intensive industries.

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