Food security ensures anybody can get enough food for survival and health at any time. During 2015-2050, the potential of domestic agricultural resources is close to the limit, and the overall plan of China’s food security need change. Food security means nutrition security at the individual level and the food availability, including food production and food imports, at the national level. The paper analyzed the balance between grain supply and demand during 2015-2050 in context of personal nutrition security and national food availability in China. The results of analysis showed that, in case of maintaining the existing grain production capacity, the total grain security degree is 110.88%-117.49%, the food grain security degree reaches 158.57%-168.02%, and the feed grain security degree is 79.41%-84.15%. This situation provides a tolerance space to achieve dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand of grain in grain market, also an opportunity for national food policy adjustment. In order to establish food security system in the new period to ensure the general balance of supply and demand of grain in China, the paper suggests: 1) to make regulations of basic farmland to maintain sustainable grain production capacity at the resources side; 2) to gradually develop larger professional grain production entities at the production side; 3) to make full use of modern network technology and electronic business model to develop modern national and regional as well as international market system of grain; and 4) to adjust the structure and size of grain reserves.
Grain subsidy policy is an important measure to ensure grain production, farmers’ income and national food security. In order to provide a reference for the government to improve the present grain subsidy policies, this paper analyzed the general features of grain subsidy policies over the past 63 years extending from 1953 to 2016, and explored the details of the policy changes by dividing the history of grain subsidy into three phases. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal changes of subsidy policies in four procedures, i.e. grain production, grain processing, grain storage and market sales were analyzed. It is found that the categories, the objects, the scope and the goal of the grain subsidy policy changed greatly during the initial phase (1953-1978), the adjustment phase (1979-2003) and the reform and development phase (2004-2016). The subsidy funds have been increasing over the past years though there are regional variations. The grain subsidy tended to support the main producing areas and economically developed areas more. Problems in current grain subsidy policies in China are mainly reflected in the following aspects: the gap between the goal and the real effect, the identification and clarification of the objects and scope of the subsidy, the structure and component of the subsidy, the role and influence of the policy, and the farmers’ awareness and perception of the subsidy policy. This study attempts to serve as a reference to improve grain subsidy policy making and increase the effectiveness of the implementation.
China has become a major importer of agricultural products. Arable land resource is implicit in agricultural products. This paper aims to study the pattern of agricultural products trade and external dependence based on the analysis of virtual land resources of agricultural products. The agricultural products discussed in this paper are mainly land resources intensive products, including seven categories (grain, oil, cassava,vegetable oil, cotton, sugar and feed meal), comprising of 24 specific varieties. This study analyzed and evaluated the virtual land resources from the consumer’s perspective based on the trade data from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that Chinese virtual land resources import has increased from 675×104 hm2 in 2000 to 5 928 ×104 hm2 in 2016. The USA and Brazil are the largest exporting country to China, the exported volume increased from 342×104 and 146×104 hm2 to 2 101×104 hm2 and 2 192×104 hm2 respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total import of virtual arable land. The external dependence of agricultural land in China reached 30.5% in 2016, accordingly the dependence on Brazil and USA being 11.3% and 10.8%. The large quantities of land intensive agricultural products import alleviate the pressure of being short of arable land resource in our country to a certain extent, and ensure food security.
Government has paid much attention to grain security, especially to grain production security. The grain subsidy has encouraged the farmers to produce more and more grain. In recent years, the grain occupation has been much more than the grain demand, which leads to great pressure on grain stock. The grain subsidy is unsustainable. It is necessary to calculate the grain consumption in order to determine the relationship between grain occupation and grain consumption and develop grain security system. In this study, we calculated the actually edible grain consumption based on the urban and rural population and the edible grain per capita, estimated the industrial grain consumption based on the outputs of grain industry products and the grain coefficient for each grain industrial product, computed the feed grain consumption based on the production of meat, beef, mutton, egg, milk and aquaculture products and the ratios of feed to meat, calculated the seed grain consumption based on the seeding area and the seed consumption per hectare, and estimated the grain loss as 5% of the grain production. The ideal edible and feed grain consumption in balanced diet was calculated based on “Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2016)” with urban and rural population and their edible grain per capita. The total ideal grain consumption in balanced diet were obtained by combining the ideally edible and feed grain consumption, the actual industrial and seed grain consumption, and grain loss. The results indicated that: 1) In 2013, most of rice, wheat, maize and potato were supported domestically, while the soybean occupation mainly depended on imports. 2) Most of rice and wheat were consumed as edible grain. The consumptions of maize and soybean were mainly used for feed grain. Potato was mainly used in industrial production and feed. In balanced diet, the edible consumption of potato and soybean increased apparently. 3) The grain occupations were much higher than the consumptions, while the soybean occupation was close to soybean consumption. 4) The consumption of rice and wheat in productions were much more than as edible grain. Only 39% of current rice and wheat production could meet the edible grain consumption in balance diet and 59% of current rice production and 43% of current wheat production could meet the actually edible grain consumption. Considering the grain security index of 1.2, 71% of current rice production and 52% of current wheat production could meet the actually edible grain consumption. In the future, government should pay more attention to the edible grain production of rice and wheat, develop supervisory system and provide financial and technical support for production, transportation, storage and trading of rice and wheat. The rice and wheat in industrial product, feed and seed and other consumption should be regulated by market, supplemented by government guidance and technical support. Thus, it would be helpful for the sustainability of the grain production and consumption.