JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 1933-1944.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190910

• Resource Economics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impacts of high-speed rail on China's domestic air transportation

WANG Jiao-e1,2, JING Yue3, YANG Hao-ran4,5   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Chengdu Institute of Planning & Design, Chengdu 610041, China;;
    4. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    5. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2019-02-21 Revised:2019-06-12 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2019-09-28

Abstract: The construction of high-speed rail in China improves the comprehensive transportation systems significantly, while challenging the development of domestic air transportation at the same time. Based on the timetable data from 2007 to 2014, the overlapping market of HSR and air network is identified from the perspective of direct connection between city pairs. In 2007, the overlappping network only had 21 city pairs with direct flights and high-speed trains, and the number dramatically increased to 277 in 2014. This paper first analyzes the potential influence of HSR development on airlines and its spatial distribution. Then, a random effect regression model is established to measure the ex-post effects of the entry of HSR on air passenger flows of all the 277 city-pairs, among which, 94 city-pairs connected with the three hub cities, and 183 city-pairs connected with other feeder airports in China. The results are as follows: (1) Despite the fact that HSR and air transportation systems in China are developing in parallel, the entry of HSR has caused a modal shift from air transportation. The reduction on air travel demand caused by G trains is more obvious than that of D trains. (2) The air travel demand between inter-cities within the same or nearby provinces decreases sharply. (3) Distance, GDP, and rank of airports are significant positive factors in increasing air travel demand. (4) Due to various flight networks, preference for air transport, and sensitivity to travel time in hub cities, city pairs connected with Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou are more competitive for air transportation than for HSR.

Key words: air passenger transport, timetable, high-speed rail (HSR), overlapping network, inter-modal competition