JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 1244-1256.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20170666

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Drought Trends over the Terrestrial China in the 21st Century in Climate Change Scenarios with Ensemble GCM Projections

MO Xing-guo1,2, HU Shi1, LU Hong-jian1, LIN Zhong-hui1, LIU Su-xia1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment/Sino-Danish Center, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10049, China
  • Received:2017-07-03 Revised:2017-11-07 Online:2018-07-20 Published:2018-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41471026;Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology Projects, No. 2017YFA0603702;Project of IGSNRR, CAS, No. TSYJS02

Abstract: There are great uncertainties in drought predication because of climate change. Based on climate change scenarios projected by six GCMs in CMIP5 project, the spatio-temporal patterns of drought indices (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) over the terrestrial China in the 21st century in IPCC RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are evaluated. Due to climate warming and precipitation variability, the drying trends are predicted to be prevailing in the 21st century over the country. It is shown that frequency, duration and intensity of drought will all be aggravated significantly, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Compared to the baseline, the drought frequency will increase 1.5 and 3 times in 2050s and 2090s, respectively in RCP 4.5. In RCP 4.5, the drought duration will extend 0.3 and 1.1 month longer, and drought intensity will aggravate 9.1% and 26.9% in 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Long duration droughts will be more frequent in northern China, and the drought intensity will be aggravated in the Northeast China. By separating the effects of precipitation and temperature on PDSI, it is recognized that air warming results in the increase of drought frequency in southern part, while precipitation increases drought frequency slightly. In northern China, even though the precipitation increases significantly, the effect of air warming still overtakes the effect of precipitation, giving rise to more serious drought condition. In the light of drying trends in climate change scenarios, precautious measures and policies for mitigation and avoidance of drought disasters should be highlighted.

Key words: climate change, CMIP5, drought, PDSI

CLC Number: 

  • P426.616