JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 1869-1882.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160985

• Resource Economics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial Temporal Characteristics of China's Agricultural Growth Based on Esteban-Marquillas Model

LIU Yu, PAN Yu-chun, TANG Lin-nan   

  1. 1. Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing 100097, China;
    2. National Engineering Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing 100097, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100097, China;
    4. Beijing Engineering Research Center of Agricultural Internet of Things, Beijing 100097, China
  • Received:2016-09-14 Revised:2016-11-10 Online:2017-11-20 Published:2017-11-20
  • Supported by:
    Science and Technology Innovation Ability Construction Project of Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, No.KJCX20170503; National Nature Science Foundation of China, No.41401193 and 41471115

Abstract: Agriculture, as the foundation of the national economy, is of great significance in ensuring food security and maintaining social stability. Under the macro background of the national industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, it will be helpful to promote the healthy development of agriculture in our country by analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of regional agriculture and internal industry in the whole country. Esteban-Marquillas expansion model of shift-share method can not only analyze the regional industrial structure and competitive situation, but also analyze the distribution effect through the interaction of the structure components and the competition components, and it has a stronger explanatory power than traditional model. Thus, based on Esteban-Marquillas expansion model of shift-share method, this research systematically analyzed the evolving characteristics of scale and structure of agricultural production from 1985 to 2014 in China in terms of shares, structure, net competitiveness and resource allocation, attempting to reveal the trend of the total amount and structure of agricultural growth in China since 1985. The results are showed as follows: 1) From 1985 to 2014, the added value of Chinese agriculture increased in stages, mainly resulting from the crop farming and animal husbandry, whose added-value increment accounted for 60% and 24.3% of the total increment, respec-tively. Among the eight major grain producing areas, the middle-lower region of the Yangtze River, Northeast China region and Huang-Huai-Hai region are the main areas driving Chinese agricultural growth, that the total increment value is 155.049 billion yuan and 117.615 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for over 50% of the total increase during the same period. 2) The agricultural shares in the major eight grain production areas presented the trend of steady growth after severe fluctuation during 1985-2014. That is to say, the agricultural shares in eight grain producing areas increased in a fluctuant way during 1985-2007 with 3 growth peaks in 1990, 1993 and 2005, and then the share component of each area turned steady growth after 2007. The overall advantages of industrial structure became weakened and even decreased. When the driving force from crop farming and fishery increased, the driving force from forestry and animal husbandry was weakened. However, when the driving force from crop farming and forestry increased, the driving force from animal husbandry dropped. There was a dynamic balance among the competitive effects. 3) Various regions should work out relevant policies to strengthen the resources integration, agricultural product circulation and technical cooperation according to their industrial development advantages, so as to promote the stable development of regional agriculture. The results can provide the basis for the formulating development strategies to optimize and differentiate the agricultural structures in our country

Key words: agricultural and forestry economics, agricultural growth, China, dynamic shift-share method, Esteban-Marquillas expansion model

CLC Number: 

  • F327