JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1664-1673.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.002

• Resources Utilization and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of China’s Carbon Emission Growth:Drive Factors and Its Contribution

HAO Zhen-zhen1, LI Jian1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Management and Economy, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
    2. School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China
  • Received:2012-07-19 Revised:2013-02-03 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2013-10-20
  • Contact: 李健(1963- ),男,河北河间人,教授,博士,主要研究循环经济与生态工业工程。

Abstract: Abstract:Kaya Identity is extended by adding several variables based on China's actual situation, such as economic efficiency factor, energy efficiency factor, sector contribution factor and carbon intensity factor. A model of drive factor for carbon emission growth (DFMCE) is proposed in this paper. The model of DFMCE is used to analyze the drive factors of CO2 emissions in different sectors in China. Four stages are divided in this paper, which is Steady Growth Stage, Slow Decrease Stage, Rapid Growth Stage, and Slow Growth Stage. The drive factor for CO2 emissions of several sectors in China are analyzed and calculated in four stages during 1990-2010 by DFMCE. The result shows that: 1) Economic effect factor is the major positive factor for the growth of CO2 emissions in each sector during 1990-2010, meanwhile energy efficiency factor and carbon intensity factor are the major negative factors. 2) There is a strong relationship between CO2 emissions and economic development. The CO2 emissions reduced rapidly which will affect the level of economic development and the living standards of the people. The balance of CO2 emissions and economic development should be considered when policies are made. 3) Energy efficiency factor and industrial structure factor are the major drive for CO2 emission reduction or slowdown in Slow Decrease Stage and Slow Growth Stage. 4) The adjustment of industrial structure does not demonstrate the validity of CO2 emission reduction in the short term according to the actual situation, but the long term is.

Key words: CO2 emission, environment economy, sector decomposition analysis

CLC Number: 

  • X502