JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 635-643.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.04.010

• Resources Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Comprehensive Risk Evaluation Model of Chilling Injury to Maize in Heilongjiang Province

LI Shuai1, WANG Liang-liang1, CHEN Li2, JIANG Li-xia1, ZHANG Hong-jie2, QIN Xue2   

  1. 1. Heilongjiang Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China;
    2. Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150028, China
  • Received:2012-03-22 Revised:2012-07-16 Online:2013-04-20 Published:2013-04-20

Abstract:

To analyze the risk of chilling injury to maize further, this article focuses on the construction of an evaluation model, which includes the temperature which represents the hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level, and is used to judge the risk of chilling injury to maize in Heilongjiang Province. The data in this research includes daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2009, date of different growing status from 1980 to 2009 of the 24 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province, and the spatial resolution of GIS data is 1 km×1 km. Method of research is mainly AHP. Initially, the risk of hazard factor from 1961 to 1979 is calculated by adopting the criterion which is "Anomaly of Sum of Monthly Average Temperature from May to September" and that from 1980 to 2009 is calculated by adopting the criterion of "Comprehensive Decision System of Chilling Injury for Maize in Heilongjiang Province", respectively. Then, comparing the planting area of maize of 75 stations as the exposure degree index, risk zones of exposure degree are concluded. After that, risk zones of the sensitivity of chilling injury are outlined based on per unit area yield of maize. At last, this article sets down a comprehensive evaluation model of chilling injury to maize based on the hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level in Heilongjiang Province. According to this model, Heilongjiang is divided into five zones, which are high risk zone, sub-high risk zone, medium risk zone, sub-low risk zone and low risk zone. Specifically, Daxinganling mountain, Xiaoxinganling mountain and southern mountain areas are high or sub-high risk zones mainly because of lack of enough heat for crop growing. Despite the risk of hazard factor being medium, the northern part of Songnen Plain is sub-high risk zone considering its high exposure degree and sensitivity level. Because the risk of hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level are all low or sub-low, the risk of chilling injury to maize in the eastern part of Sanjiang Plain is low. In all, the model can not only help to promote the capability of quantitative assessment of chilling injury to maize in Heilongjiang Province, but can be used for reference to construct the damage evaluation models of other agricultural & meteorological disasters as well.

Key words: chilling injury, risk evaluation model, maize, Heilongjiang Province

CLC Number: 

  • S426