JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 1398-1410.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160701

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation of the Response of Soil Water in Winter Wheat Field and Winter Wheat Yield to Rainfall and Temperature Change on the Loess Plateau

WANG Xue-chun1a, LI Jun2*, WANG Hong-ni1b, HAO Ming-de2   

  1. 1. a. School of Life Science and Technology, b. College of Adult and Online Education, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China;
    2. College of Agronomy, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
  • Received:2016-07-01 Revised:2016-11-02 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 31401347 and 31571620National Key Technology Support Program of China, No. 2015BAD22B02.

Abstract: There is great meaning to research the impacts of rainfall and temperature changes on soil water and grain yield of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau of China, with the objective of ensuring the safety of grain production in China. EPIC model was used to simulate the response of soil water and winter wheat yield to rainfall and temperature changes in different regions on the Loess Plateau of China. The results are: 1) The EPIC model simulated soil water content well in the 0-2 m soil layer, the RRMSE value between the simulated values and measured values being 6.0%-14.0%; the mean value of R2 was 0.824 which was close to the value of ME (0.815). 2) There was a descending trend of rainfall and an ascending trend of temperature from 1976 to 2010 on the Loess Plateau of China. Compared with those during 1961-2000, rainfall decreased 13.6%-24.9% in Luochuan, Changwu, Yuncheng and Yan’an during 2001-2010, the maximum temperature increased 0.30-0.84 ℃, while the minimum temperature increased 1.00-1.55 ℃ during 2001-2010. 3) Both the increasing of maximum temperature and the decreasing of rainfall were harmful to the production of winter wheat, while the increasing of minimum temperature was good to the production of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau. Due to the descending of rainfall, winter wheat yield in Luochuan, Changwu, Yuncheng and Yan’an decreased 8.5%, 7.6%, 11.7% and 12.3% respectively. The increasing of the highest temperature made winter wheat yield decrease 6.4%, 6.8%, 7.2% and -3.0% respectively in Luochuan, Changwu, Yuncheng and Yan’an; while the ascending minimum temperature increased the winter wheat yield by 8.8%, 10.2%, 1.5% and 12.0% respectively in Luochuan, Changwu, Yuncheng and Yan’an. In conclusion, considering sustainable use of soil water and sustainable production of winter wheat, adjusting planting time properly and developing water conserving and saving technologies are two of the best ways to adapt the climate change and to ensure the sustainable production of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau of China.

Key words: EPIC, rainfall, soil water, temperature, winter wheat

CLC Number: 

  • S512.1