JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 1893-1902.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220716

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Multi-scenario simulations of carrying capacity of the Three River Headwaters Region based on animal husbandry production

WANG Sui-zi1(), FAN Jiang-wen1(), ZHANG Ya-xian1,2, GUAN Hui-ling1, ZHANG Hai-yan1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing100101, China
    2. Institute of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Received:2021-03-20 Revised:2022-02-22 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-09-28
  • Contact: FAN Jiang-wen;


The Three River Headwaters Region is an important barrier for ecological security and one of the most important animal husbandry production bases in China. Under the premise of ensuring sustainable utilization of grassland resources, exploring optimal population capacity is of great significance to the ecological protection construction and sustainable development of this region. In this study, we simulated the theoretical animal carrying capacity of grassland, and then estimated the production value of animal husbandry. We evaluated the optimal population capacity in different periods and spatial differences in population capacity under three scenarios of residents' living standards. The results show that the population capacity of this region was in a surplus state under the three scenarios during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period (2001-2005); the population capacity under the current situation and well-off level was still in balance during the "Eleventh Five-Year" (2006-2010) and "Twelfth Five-Year" periods (2011-2015); by the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period (2016-2020), the population capacity of the three scenarios relying only on the production value of animal husbandry was generally overloaded, but there were differences in spatial distribution. The areas with overloaded capacity are mainly distributed in the east of the study region. Under the current situation, well-off, and prosperous living standards scenarios, there are 11 counties, 8 counties, and 2 counties with surplus population capacity, respectively. The regional population structure is adjusted and optimized in accordance with the existing resource distribution and the direction that meets the main functional requirements, which is of great significance to the sustainable development strategy of the region.

Key words: different periods, multi-scenario simulations, population capacity, animal husbandry