黄河流域城市群生态保护与经济发展耦合的时空格局与机制分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220702

Abstract

Abstract:

By studying the strategic background of the Yellow River Basin and the development plan of urban agglomerations in the basin, this paper constructs an index system for evaluating ecological protection and economic development that can be applied to a comparative study of urban agglomerations. Based on the index system, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination between ecological protection and economic development of seven major urban agglomerations in the basin from 2007 to 2019 by using the coupling coordination degree model, spatial autocorrelation and geographic detectors. The results show that: (1) During the study period, the economic development level of the seven major urban agglomerations has been greatly improved, the progress of ecological protection construction is relatively slow, and the coupling degree between them rises in a fluctuating manner. (2) The eco-economic coordination degree of the urban agglomerations in the upper reaches is lower than that of the middle and lower reaches, and the overall coordination degree is improved to a higher level compared with that of the development mode which was significantly unbalanced in the past. (3) Urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin have experienced a transformation from economic development lag to ecological protection lag. (4) The coordination degree between ecological protection and economic development of each urban agglomeration has correlation effect. (5) The coupling mechanism is closely related to people's livelihood development and opening-up, technological innovation and industrial expansion, green development and agricultural construction, basic public service system and so on.

Key words: ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, urban agglomeration, coupling coordination model, driving mechanism

SUN Jiu-wen, CUI Ya-qi, ZHANG Hao. Spatio-temporal pattern and mechanism analysis of coupling between ecological protection and economic development of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(7): 1673-1690.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Table 1

Evaluation index system of "ecological-economic" complex system in the Yellow River Eco-economic Belt

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标代码	单位
生态环境	生态状态	森林覆盖率	$X 1$	%
		人均耕地面积	$X 2$	千hm²/万人
		人均绿地面积	$X 3$	hm²/万人
		年降水量	$X 4$	mm
		年平均气温	$X 5$	°C
	生态压力	万元GDP工业废水排放量^*	$X 6$	万t/万元
		万元GDP工业废气排放量^*	$X 7$	亿标m³
		万元GDP工业固体废物产生量^*	$X 8$	万t/万元
		人均用水量^*	$X 9$	m³/人
		人均用电量^*	$X 10$	度/人
		单位GDP能源消耗^*	$X 11$	m³/万元
	生态响应	工业废水排放达标率	$X 12$	%
		工业固体废物综合利用率	$X 13$	%
		生活垃圾无害化处理率	$X 14$	%
		城镇生活污水处理率	$X 15$	%
		空气质量优良率	$X 16$	%
		万人绿色专利数	$X 17$	件/万人
		PM_2.5浓度^*	$X 18$	μg/m³
经济发展	经济规模	地区生产总值增长率	$X 19$	%
		人均地方财政收入	$X 20$	元/人
		人均固定资本投资额	$X 21$	元/人
		人均社会消费品零售总额	$X 22$	元/人
		人均道路面积	$X 23$	m²/人
		城市建设用地占市区面积比例	$X 24$	%
		进出口占GDP比例	$X 25$	%
		外商投资占GDP比例	$X 26$	%
	经济结构	第二产业产值占比^*	$X 27$	%
		第三产业产值占比	$X 28$	%
		城镇化率	$X 29$	%
		二三产从业人数占比	$X 30$	%
		城市登记失业率^*	$X 31$	%
		工业企业数	$X 32$	个
	经济质量	人均GDP	$X 33$	元
		农民人均纯收入	$X 34$	元
		职工平均工资	$X 35$	元
		高铁站数量	$X 36$	座
		万人在校大学生数	$X 37$	人
		万人专利授权数	$X 38$	件/万人
		万人拥有普通高等学校数	$X 39$	所/万人
		万人拥有医院、卫生院床位数	$X 40$	张/万人
		万人拥有藏书量	$X 41$	本/万人
		互联网普及率	$X 42$	%
		万人拥有公共汽车	$X 43$	量/万人

Table 1

Table 2

Research methods

测度方法	模型	计算公式	模型释义	作用意义
耦合协调度测度	极差标准化	正向指标： $y i j = (X i j - X i j m i n) (X i j m a x - X i j m i n)$	y_ij为标准值;X_ij_max、X_ij_min为系统i指标j的最大、最小值;X_ij为系统i指标j的值	消除数据量纲导致的差异
	极差标准化	负向指标： $y i j = (X i j m a x - X i j) (X i j m a x - X i j m i n)$		消除数据量纲导致的差异
	熵权法	$p i j = y i j / ∑ i = 1 n y i j$ $E j = - l n (n) - 1 ∑ i = 1 n p i j l n p i j$ $w i = 1 - E i n - ∑ E i$	w_i为各指标权重;p_ij为第i个城市j指标的占比（%）;E_j为j指标的信息熵	客观确定指标权重
	综合发展指数	$U 1 = ∑ i = 1 m w i y i j, U 2 = ∑ i = 1 n w i y i j$	U₁、U₂分别代表各子系统的综合功效;n和m均为地级市的个数（个）	获得子系统的综合效益
	耦合度	$C = n u 1 u 2 … u n ∏ (u i + u j) 1 n$	C为耦合度。0≤C≤0.3,低水平耦合;0.3<C≤0.5,拮抗状态;0.5<C≤0.8,磨合状态;0.8<C≤1,高水平耦合	耦合度反映多个系统的相互依赖相互制约程度,是构建耦合协调度的基础
	耦合协调度	$T = a U 1 + b U 2$ $D = C × T$	T表示综合评价指数;a和b为待定系数,和为1,一般均取0.5;D表示耦合协调度。0≤D≤0.2,严重失调;0.2<D≤0.4轻度失调;0.4<D≤0.6,一般协调;0.6<D≤0.8,良好协调;0.8<D≤1,优质协调	耦合协调度测算多个系统耦合关系中良性耦合的程度,反映协调状况的好坏
	相对发展模型	$β = U 2 U 1$	$β$ 为相对发展度;U₁、U₂为生态保护和经济发展综合发展指数。0< $β$ ≤0.9为生态保护滞后于经济发展;0.9< $β$ ≤ 1.1为二者同步发展; $β$ >1.1为经济发展滞后于生态保护	确定特定时间的耦合协调主体
空间自相关分析	空间自相关	$M o r a n' s I = ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n W i j (x i - x ¯) (x j - x ¯) s 2 ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n W i j$ $G (d) = ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n W i j x i x j / ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n x i x j$	$x -$ 和s²表示变量x的均值和标准差;n为研究单元数（个）;x_i和x_j为空间单元i和j的属性值;W_ij为空间权重矩阵	探测耦合协调度空间格局特征,包括全局和局部空间自相关
影响因素分析	地理探测器	$q = 1 - ∑ h = 1 L N h σ h 2 N σ 2$	q为各影响因子对耦合度空间分异的解释程度;N_h与N为层h和整个区域样本数量（个）; $σ h 和 σ 2$ 代表层h和全域样本方差	用于探测地理事物空间分异性,揭示其背后驱动因子的方法

Table 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Table 3

Detection factors

划分类别	探测因子
绿色环境	人均耕地面积 $X 2$ 、空气质量优良率 $X 16$
城市发展与人民生活	地区生产总值增长率 $X 19$ 、人均固定资本投资额 $X 21$ 、人均社会消费品零售总额 $X 22$ 、城市建设用地占市区面积比例 $X 24$ 、城镇化率 $X 29$ 、农民人均纯收入 $X 34$
科技创新	万人绿色专利数 $X 17$ 、万人专利授权数 $X 38$
产业发展与结构	第二产业产值占比 $X 27$ 、第三产业产值占比 $X 28$ 、工业企业数 $X 32$
对外开放	进出口占GDP比例 $X 25$ 、外商投资占GDP比例 $X 26$
交通运输	人均道路面积 $X 23$ 、高铁站数量 $X 36$
基本公共服务	万人在校大学生数 $X 37$ 、万人拥有藏书量 $X 41$ 、互联网普及率 $X 42$

Table 3

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

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Spatio-temporal pattern and mechanism analysis of coupling between ecological protection and economic development of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin

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