JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 2368-2381.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210914

• Method Innovation for Territorial Space Security Planning • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial assessment and driving mechanism of urban safety from the perspective of disaster risk:A case study of Chuzhou central city

YANG Hai-feng, ZHAI Guo-fang()   

  1. School of Architecture and Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2020-07-03 Revised:2021-04-02 Online:2021-09-28 Published:2021-09-15
  • Contact: ZHAI Guo-fang


The frequent occurrence of natural and man-made disasters in the process of urbanization has seriously restricted the survival and safe development of cities. We used Chuzhou central city, one of the representative disaster prone areas, as a case study to measure safety risk. We constructed a safety risk index system, based on a typical Pressure-State-Response (PSR) conceptual framework. We then used coupling indication model to compound the risk assessment results of each single disaster, and quantitatively evaluated the distribution characteristic of urban safety risk. Finally, we used geographic detector to analyse the impact mechanism of the driving indicators of urban safety risk. We found that: (1) The proportions of urban safety risk grades from low to high were 2.49%, 8.71%, 41.08%, 30.47% and 17.25%, respectively, with medium risk dominating the study area. Spatially, the safety risk of central area was higher than that of the surrounding areas, that is to say, it showed a declining trend from the central city to the suburbs. (2) The order of the explanatory power intensity of the driving indicators on the safety risk was as follows: population density (0.404) > GDP density (0.402) > building disaster tolerance (0.095) > vegetation coverage (0.078) > road network density (0.013) > risk of land use type (0.012), and the explanatory power of the results was enhanced by interaction of factors. The research will provide a new theoretical perspective and framework for urban safety risk assessment, and help for disaster risk management in high risk areas.

Key words: urban safety risk, PSR framework, coupling indication model, geographic detector, driving mechanism, Chuzhou central city