全球变化背景下南方红豆杉地域分布变化

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210318

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate is an important factor affecting plant habitat. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and predict the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of plants. The potential geographical distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei in China was simulated by the maximum entropy model (Maxent), based on 11 environmental variables under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the 2050s. And we discussed the significance of its distribution patterns to the northern boundary of subtropical China. The results showed that AUC=0.950, indicating that Maxent had high accuracy and reliability in prediction of the potential distribution for Taxus chinensis var. mairei. Jackknife test results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution suitability of Taxus chinensis var. mairei. were the precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), mean diurnal range (bio2), temperature annual range (bio7), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10) and altitude (Elev), and the cumulative contribution of >90%. The suitable habitats (P>0.2) of Taxus chinensis var. mairei are mainly distributed in the subtropical and warm temperate monsoon areas of 18°-36°N and 104°-124°E in China, and most of the core habitats (P>0.6) were distributed to the south of Qinling-Daba Mountains. With the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 2050s, the suitable habitats of Taxus chinensis var. mairei increased in RCP2.6 scenario, and decreased in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. With the climate warming in the future, the suitable habitats range of Taxus chinensis var. mairei in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios are expanding north- and westward, while shrinking south- and eastward. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable habitats distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei are "expanding westward", and "shrinking eastward". With climate change, the centroid of Taxus chinensis var. mairei distribution moved to the northwest under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and moved to the southwest in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei presents a rising trend as the altitude and the latitude increase in the 2050s, but the migration rate is low and the spread range is small. And the northern boundary of subtropical China will move northward under climate change.

Key words: Taxus chinensis var. mairei, climate change, distribution pattern, Maxent, geographical indication

LI Yan-hong, ZHANG Li-juan, ZHU Wen-bo, ZHANG Jing-jing, XU Shuai-bo, ZHU Lian-qi. Changes of Taxus chinensis var. mairei habitat distribution under global climate change[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 783-792.

Figures/Tables 6

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Table 1

Table 2

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References 34

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环境变量	描述	贡献率/%	最适范围
bio2	气温平均日较差	21.2	0~11 ℃
bio3	等温性	3.2	>25%
bio6	最冷月最低温度	1.3	<5 ℃
bio7	气温年变化范围	8.1	1~16 ℃
bio10	最暖季平均温度	5.5	3~22 ℃
bio13	最湿月降水量	1.1	>155 mm
bio15	降水季节性变化	0.2	20%~70%
bio19	最冷季降水量	52.8	>25 mm
T_BS	表层土壤基本饱和度	2.7	4%~60%
AWC_CLASS	土壤有效含水量	0.6	7.5%~15%
Elev	海拔	3.3	>0 m

生境指数P	当前（1960—1990年）	未来（2050s）
生境指数P	当前（1960—1990年）	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
0.2~0.4	57.50	60.48	61.82	68.56
0.4~0.6	37.89	40.22	42.40	37.24
>0.6	52.74	49.01	43.46	31.79
合计（>0.2）	148.13	149.71	147.68	137.59

Changes of Taxus chinensis var. mairei habitat distribution under global climate change

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