JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 783-792.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210318

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Changes of Taxus chinensis var. mairei habitat distribution under global climate change

LI Yan-hong(), ZHANG Li-juan, ZHU Wen-bo, ZHANG Jing-jing, XU Shuai-bo, ZHU Lian-qi()   

  1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
  • Received:2019-07-12 Revised:2019-12-05 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-05-28
  • Contact: ZHU Lian-qi E-mail:lyh6299@126.com;lqzhu@henu.edu.cn

Abstract:

Climate is an important factor affecting plant habitat. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and predict the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of plants. The potential geographical distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei in China was simulated by the maximum entropy model (Maxent), based on 11 environmental variables under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the 2050s. And we discussed the significance of its distribution patterns to the northern boundary of subtropical China. The results showed that AUC=0.950, indicating that Maxent had high accuracy and reliability in prediction of the potential distribution for Taxus chinensis var. mairei. Jackknife test results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution suitability of Taxus chinensis var. mairei. were the precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), mean diurnal range (bio2), temperature annual range (bio7), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10) and altitude (Elev), and the cumulative contribution of >90%. The suitable habitats (P>0.2) of Taxus chinensis var. mairei are mainly distributed in the subtropical and warm temperate monsoon areas of 18°-36°N and 104°-124°E in China, and most of the core habitats (P>0.6) were distributed to the south of Qinling-Daba Mountains. With the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 2050s, the suitable habitats of Taxus chinensis var. mairei increased in RCP2.6 scenario, and decreased in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. With the climate warming in the future, the suitable habitats range of Taxus chinensis var. mairei in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios are expanding north- and westward, while shrinking south- and eastward. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable habitats distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei are "expanding westward", and "shrinking eastward". With climate change, the centroid of Taxus chinensis var. mairei distribution moved to the northwest under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and moved to the southwest in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The distribution of Taxus chinensis var. mairei presents a rising trend as the altitude and the latitude increase in the 2050s, but the migration rate is low and the spread range is small. And the northern boundary of subtropical China will move northward under climate change.

Key words: Taxus chinensis var. mairei, climate change, distribution pattern, Maxent, geographical indication