JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 567-581.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210303

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Possible trends of rice yield in China under global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃

LI Ming-yu1(), GAO Xi-ning2, PAN Jie3, XIONG Wei3, GUO Li-ping3, LIN Er-da3, LI Kuo3()   

  1. 1. Liaoning Weather Modification Office, Shenyang 110166, China
    2. College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
    3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2019-07-12 Revised:2019-11-05 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-05-28
  • Contact: LI Kuo E-mail:limingyu1050@163.com;likuo@caas.cn

Abstract:

Five climate models of ISI-MIP were used to simulate and output future climate data under four RCP scenarios, and the scenario data of global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ in the future was screened. Based on CERES-Rice model, the trends of rice yield in various regions of China were simulated under the two scenarios, and the relationship between characteristics of future climate change and rice yield were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that: under the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃, the average temperature in China increased by 1.19 ℃ and 1.87 ℃, respectively, and the average precipitation in China increased by 3.07% and 6.17%, respectively, relative to baseline period. Under the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the yield of rice per unit area decreased by 7.49% on average, the area of yield reduction and serious yield reduction accounted for 68.8% and 10.3% of the total rice planting area, respectively. Results showed that the biggest reduction rate was found in double cropping rice planting area of South China, and the biggest increase rate was observed in single cropping rice planting area of Northeast China. Under the global warming of 2.0 ℃, the yield of rice per unit area decreased by 12.02% on average, and the area of yield reduction and serious yield reduction accounted for 70.6% and 18.7% of the total rice planting area. And also, the biggest reduction rate was found in double cropping rice planting area of South China, and the biggest increase rate was observed in single cropping rice planting area of Northwest China.

Key words: global warming by 1.5 ℃, global warming by 2.0 ℃, CERES-Rice model, rice yield, yield reduction risk