1961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型及其生产潜力分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210216

Abstract

Abstract:

Annual crop climate types refer to different combinations of agrometeorological elements in agricultural year or the whole growth stage of crops, which affects the agricultural planting system, variety distribution, crop development and yield. It is of great significance to know and grasp annual crop climate types and crop potential yield under the background of the effects of climate change on the sustainable agricultural development. Based on the daily meteorological data from 316 meteorological stations and corresponding historical production data of single cropping rice in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015, and by calculating the abnormality of mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine, ten annual crop climate types were determined and the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice under different annual climate types was analyzed, and the impacts of climate change on annual climate types and climatic potential yield of single-cropping rice were also studied. The following conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The normal year showed the greatest frequencies with an average value of 21.5, followed by the drought year and rainy year. In terms of spatial distribution, most of the normal years were mainly found in the southern and northwestern Yunnan, Panxi and southern basin of Sichuan. Most of drought years and rainy years occurred in most of the Sichuan Basin and parts of other provincial-level regions. The high temperature year mostly appeared in the Panxi area of Sichuan, a small part of Yunnan and Guizhou. The low temperature year and scant lighting year showed least variations among different regions. (2) The average climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in Southwest China was 7065.6 kg·hm^-2 during 1961-2015. Compared with the normal year, the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in rainy year increased by more than 10%, while that in drought year reduced by more than 14%. Precipitation was the most important limiting factor for climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in Southwest China. (3) Climate warming had the most significant impact on the change of annual climate types in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China. Compared with 1961-1990, the warm years showed an increasing trend while a decreasing trend was found in the cold years during 1991-2015. In the 55 years, the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in all the provincial-level regions of Southwest China showed a decreasing trend. Since the 1990s, the increase in warm years was conducive to the improvement of climatic potential yield, and the increase in drought and scant lighting years was the main reason for the decline in climatic potential yield of single cropping rice over Southwest China.

Key words: single cropping rice, annual climate type, potential yield, climate change, Southwest China

PANG Yan-mei, CHEN Chao, GUO Xiao-yi, XU Fu-xian. Analysis of annual climate types and potential yield for single cropping rice in Southwest China during 1961-2015[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(2): 476-489.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 32

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气候因子	高（多）	低（少）	正常
平均气温	C ≥1.0	C<-1.0	1.0>C ≥-1.0
日照	C ≥1.0	C<-1.0	1.0>C ≥-1.0

农作物气候年型	平均气温	降水	日照时数
正常年型	正常	正常	—
高温年型	高	正常	—
低温年型	低	正常	—
多雨年型	正常	多	—
少雨年型	正常	少	—
暖湿年型	高	多	—
暖干年型	高	少	—
冷湿年型	低	多	—
冷干年型	低	少	—
寡照年型	—	—	少

气候年型	发生频次/次（平均值±标准偏差）
正常年型	3.1±1.6
高温年型	0.7±0.9
低温年型	2.4±1.6
多雨年型	2.5±1.5
少雨年型	1.1±1.1
暖湿年型	0.1±0.4
暖干年型	0.2±0.7
冷湿年型	0.9±0.9
冷干年型	0.2±0.5

Analysis of annual climate types and potential yield for single cropping rice in Southwest China during 1961-2015

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