中国省际农业碳排放测算及低碳化水平评价——基于衍生指标与TOPSIS法的运用

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210210

Abstract

Abstract:

The calculation of agricultural carbon emissions and the evaluation of low carbonization levels are important bases for realizing green development of agriculture and formulating carbon emission reduction plans. This article firstly calculated the agricultural carbon emissions of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2006 to 2016. Based on the calculation results, the agricultural carbon emission derivative indicators were constructed from three aspects: agricultural land, livestock farming and agricultural energy. The low carbonization levels of agriculture in the 30 regions were evaluated by the TOPSIS method with dynamic natural weights. The results showed that China's total agricultural carbon emissions showed a V-shaped tendency, which was 910.96 million tons in 2006 and dropped to 835.21 million tons in 2008, and steadily increased to 921.92 million tons in 2016 afterwards. Agricultural non-energy carbon emissions accounted for more than 84% of the total agricultural carbon emissions, and soil management was the largest source of agricultural non-energy carbon emissions. China's inter-provincial agricultural carbon emission derivatives were heterogeneous, and the overall low carbonization level of agriculture was not high. These provided references for agricultural and environmental departments to carry out low-carbon agriculture evaluation.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, low carbonization level, derivative indicator, TOPSIS method

TIAN Cheng-shi, CHEN Yu. China's provincial agricultural carbon emissions measurement and low carbonization level evaluation: Based on the application of derivative indicators and TOPSIS[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(2): 395-410.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

China's inter-provincial agricultural carbon emissions (万t CO2e)"

省（市、自治区）	农业碳排放总量			农业能源碳排放总量			农业非能源碳排放总量
省（市、自治区）	2006年	2011年	2016年	2006年	2011年	2016年	2006年	2011年	2016年
北京	303.58	283.79	191.89	127.56	118.90	63.76	176.02	164.89	128.13
天津	331.53	340.50	343.57	92.50	124.89	136.58	239.03	215.61	206.99
河北	3842.92	3443.68	3622.36	126.70	616.26	732.85	3716.22	2827.42	2889.50
山西	1491.38	1406.16	1466.55	421.70	547.66	530.07	1069.68	858.50	936.47
内蒙古	2849.89	3560.09	3924.07	391.13	921.56	1043.35	2458.76	2638.53	2880.72
辽宁	2328.42	2561.16	2565.50	506.94	527.15	510.45	1821.48	2034.01	2055.05
吉林	2426.01	2162.04	2474.17	415.97	231.41	390.59	2010.04	1930.63	2083.58
黑龙江	2939.40	3498.20	4170.41	564.33	644.12	1234.42	2375.07	2854.08	2935.99
上海	385.16	340.38	298.35	126.50	95.01	96.98	258.66	245.37	201.37
江苏	5214.81	5278.83	5233.19	555.78	768.75	774.75	4659.04	4510.08	4458.44
浙江	2454.35	2396.18	2239.20	622.95	685.28	740.61	1831.40	1710.90	1498.59
安徽	4691.98	4639.04	4859.00	251.73	375.66	406.61	4440.25	4263.39	4452.39
福建	2264.32	2086.65	1802.71	548.67	437.53	173.89	1715.65	1649.11	1628.82
江西	4318.49	4263.15	4374.57	294.74	211.23	225.15	4023.75	4051.92	4149.42
山东	6812.77	5042.44	5093.62	1373.27	655.82	800.71	5439.49	4386.62	4292.91
河南	7320.79	6493.30	6620.45	510.97	589.46	619.79	6809.82	5903.84	6000.66
湖北	5263.14	5596.47	5550.38	729.03	825.17	719.06	4534.11	4771.30	4831.32
湖南	6305.31	6415.26	6763.21	650.41	799.80	1010.80	5654.90	5615.46	5752.42
广东	3886.11	3803.24	3932.58	443.33	435.26	533.66	3442.78	3367.99	3398.91
广西	4210.26	3784.60	4025.33	100.31	127.17	345.29	4109.95	3657.43	3680.04
海南	885.86	953.34	863.83	107.57	199.32	157.07	778.29	754.02	706.75
重庆	1778.16	1902.06	1544.06	544.32	659.61	241.45	1233.84	1242.45	1302.61
四川	5486.46	5418.86	5507.82	362.04	454.26	514.47	5124.42	4964.60	4993.35
贵州	3021.17	2110.61	2454.58	577.46	221.15	456.52	2443.71	1889.46	1998.06
云南	3188.87	3348.63	3707.87	448.20	454.64	505.53	2740.67	2893.99	3202.34
陕西	1528.76	1497.88	1582.31	144.75	203.46	193.56	1384.01	1294.41	1388.75
甘肃	1592.12	1857.07	2038.73	153.82	207.12	223.83	1438.31	1649.94	1814.90
青海	956.54	1029.98	1070.98	16.77	35.61	37.88	939.77	994.36	1033.10
宁夏	386.90	435.21	468.21	23.04	36.14	31.19	363.86	399.07	437.02
新疆	2631.00	2425.80	3402.56	419.92	417.71	719.43	2211.09	2008.09	2683.13

Table 3

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Table 4

China's inter-provincial agricultural non-energy carbon emission structure (%)"

省（市、自治区）	水稻种植			土壤管理			禽畜粪便			肠道发酵
省（市、自治区）	2006年	2011年	2016年	2006年	2011年	2016年	2006年	2011年	2016年	2006年	2011年	2016年
北京	0.11	0.04	0.04	44.19	47.08	43.77	25.15	25.36	26.68	30.55	27.52	29.51
天津	1.45	1.62	2.10	46.27	51.42	47.53	19.83	21.16	23.03	32.45	25.80	27.34
河北	0.79	0.97	0.93	36.59	51.52	51.92	18.91	18.18	18.43	43.72	29.32	28.72
山西	0.02	0.02	0.01	40.22	59.00	56.89	15.20	13.76	14.85	44.57	27.21	28.25
内蒙古	0.57	0.66	0.67	21.50	28.06	35.08	16.28	15.48	14.39	61.65	55.79	49.86
辽宁	6.91	6.53	5.51	36.84	41.76	41.31	16.09	15.90	16.17	40.16	35.81	37.01
吉林	4.20	4.60	4.82	31.38	43.09	47.33	14.28	13.05	12.42	50.14	39.26	35.43
黑龙江	15.26	18.78	19.85	31.64	36.25	38.70	11.95	10.56	10.38	41.15	34.41	31.07
上海	48.70	49.23	53.78	40.41	36.56	34.61	9.97	12.96	10.63	0.92	1.25	0.98
江苏	53.80	56.44	58.26	31.00	32.50	30.96	7.47	7.23	7.08	7.73	3.83	3.69
浙江	55.33	53.95	55.75	28.32	30.91	33.02	10.68	11.31	8.04	5.66	3.82	3.19
安徽	46.04	49.17	49.94	28.91	34.22	32.55	8.61	8.09	8.38	16.44	8.52	9.13
福建	39.95	40.07	39.17	34.46	37.13	38.39	12.53	12.77	12.51	13.06	10.03	9.93
江西	60.52	61.68	60.73	16.17	18.09	17.67	8.48	9.10	9.67	14.83	11.12	11.93
山东	1.05	1.27	1.11	47.26	56.03	54.37	17.11	16.98	18.76	34.58	25.71	25.77
河南	3.21	4.13	4.17	32.33	46.30	48.12	17.88	16.83	17.19	46.58	32.74	30.51
湖北	43.52	42.81	43.50	28.78	32.31	29.34	10.10	10.75	11.66	17.60	14.14	15.50
湖南	50.07	52.37	51.10	18.16	20.55	20.59	12.99	12.73	13.25	18.78	14.34	15.05
广东	40.58	41.73	40.48	26.93	32.14	33.81	14.42	14.02	13.43	18.07	12.11	12.27
广西	36.71	39.08	36.70	20.40	27.01	30.10	13.66	13.72	13.72	29.23	20.19	19.48
海南	27.22	30.08	28.19	25.52	36.90	39.40	11.71	11.74	12.23	35.56	21.28	20.19
重庆	29.85	30.27	29.10	28.64	34.24	33.30	15.75	16.29	16.34	25.77	19.20	21.26
四川	22.23	22.14	21.83	20.25	23.55	23.51	18.19	18.05	17.95	39.33	36.26	36.70
贵州	13.08	16.97	15.88	13.95	21.85	23.13	15.41	15.52	15.40	57.56	45.66	45.59
云南	5.86	5.79	5.48	24.96	31.75	34.35	17.97	17.02	16.75	51.22	45.44	43.42
陕西	2.36	2.52	2.39	40.26	59.89	62.82	12.11	9.47	9.08	45.27	28.12	25.72
甘肃	0.06	0.05	0.04	30.65	41.43	44.29	13.58	11.92	11.37	55.72	46.60	44.30
青海	0	0	0	3.10	4.14	4.60	16.09	15.84	15.30	80.81	80.02	80.10
宁夏	3.92	3.40	2.78	33.14	39.91	38.23	14.08	12.36	13.40	48.85	44.33	45.59
新疆	0.70	0.80	0.59	30.09	49.09	51.33	15.72	12.52	11.93	53.49	37.59	36.16
全国	24.77	26.43	25.71	28.26	34.73	35.53	14.01	13.43	13.50	32.96	25.41	25.26

Table 4

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Table 5

China's inter-provincial low carbonization level in 2006-2016"

省（市、自治区）	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年
北京	0.544	0.551	0.512	0.497	0.501	0.505	0.488	0.528	0.522	0.516	0.480
天津	0.481	0.455	0.413	0.394	0.419	0.433	0.435	0.456	0.452	0.454	0.450
河北	0.479	0.454	0.373	0.360	0.351	0.334	0.321	0.328	0.316	0.309	0.314
山西	0.471	0.412	0.421	0.417	0.417	0.419	0.420	0.434	0.437	0.420	0.436
内蒙古	0.324	0.319	0.270	0.268	0.265	0.309	0.314	0.350	0.366	0.361	0.320
辽宁	0.240	0.235	0.204	0.198	0.202	0.211	0.213	0.223	0.218	0.221	0.231
吉林	0.283	0.297	0.230	0.208	0.205	0.213	0.208	0.211	0.201	0.203	0.198
黑龙江	0.249	0.240	0.200	0.197	0.191	0.202	0.219	0.268	0.278	0.291	0.295
上海	0.510	0.514	0.508	0.482	0.492	0.512	0.505	0.549	0.545	0.546	0.529
江苏	0.439	0.432	0.417	0.411	0.415	0.419	0.416	0.425	0.417	0.407	0.409
浙江	0.476	0.479	0.484	0.468	0.472	0.479	0.472	0.492	0.477	0.442	0.419
安徽	0.411	0.376	0.339	0.336	0.345	0.347	0.352	0.355	0.352	0.346	0.353
福建	0.467	0.454	0.460	0.448	0.450	0.454	0.457	0.488	0.471	0.447	0.468
江西	0.438	0.430	0.410	0.410	0.415	0.418	0.420	0.421	0.419	0.415	0.417
山东	0.444	0.419	0.408	0.389	0.393	0.406	0.430	0.414	0.398	0.384	0.401
河南	0.480	0.446	0.368	0.357	0.369	0.383	0.379	0.378	0.362	0.352	0.362
湖北	0.379	0.388	0.377	0.373	0.375	0.373	0.373	0.383	0.377	0.368	0.374
湖南	0.459	0.455	0.431	0.420	0.428	0.425	0.419	0.417	0.410	0.399	0.403
广东	0.490	0.492	0.474	0.464	0.469	0.468	0.461	0.452	0.438	0.426	0.426
广西	0.457	0.429	0.376	0.369	0.375	0.377	0.374	0.374	0.356	0.350	0.350
海南	0.477	0.430	0.369	0.367	0.363	0.371	0.371	0.390	0.386	0.379	0.371
重庆	0.455	0.430	0.366	0.343	0.369	0.381	0.385	0.340	0.322	0.307	0.318
四川	0.358	0.358	0.329	0.322	0.328	0.336	0.331	0.324	0.308	0.301	0.307
贵州	0.450	0.387	0.240	0.237	0.252	0.268	0.248	0.249	0.236	0.248	0.257
云南	0.298	0.304	0.256	0.242	0.241	0.253	0.259	0.260	0.246	0.243	0.248
陕西	0.372	0.315	0.189	0.186	0.183	0.192	0.195	0.197	0.192	0.195	0.193
甘肃	0.247	0.238	0.194	0.194	0.186	0.199	0.201	0.200	0.198	0.201	0.199
青海	0.372	0.381	0.378	0.376	0.376	0.381	0.379	0.378	0.376	0.373	0.375
宁夏	0.270	0.291	0.246	0.244	0.226	0.241	0.258	0.253	0.239	0.251	0.255
新疆	0.333	0.316	0.233	0.209	0.192	0.193	0.197	0.224	0.224	0.229	0.251

Table 5

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碳源	排放系数	排放气体、单位	碳源	排放系数	排放气体、单位
奶牛	88.1/89.3/99.3	CH₄、kg/头/年	骆驼	46	CH₄、kg/峰/年
非奶牛	52.9/67.9/85.3	CH₄、kg/头/年	猪	1	CH₄、kg/头/年
马	18	CH₄、kg/匹/年	山羊	8.9/9.4/6.7	CH₄、kg/头/年
驴/骡	10	CH₄、kg/匹/年	绵羊	8.2/8.7/7.5	CH₄、kg/头/年

排放气体	地区	禽兽
排放气体	地区	奶牛	非奶牛	绵羊	山羊	猪	家禽	马	驴/骡	骆驼
CH₄	华北	7.46	2.82	0.15	0.17	3.12	0.01	1.09	0.60	1.28
	东北	2.23	1.02	0.15	0.16	1.12	0.01	1.09	0.60	1.28
	华东	8.33	3.31	0.26	0.28	5.08	0.02	1.64	0.90	1.92
	中南	8.45	4.72	0.34	0.31	5.85	0.02	1.64	0.90	1.92
	西南	6.51	3.21	0.48	0.53	4.18	0.02	1.64	0.90	1.92
	西北	5.93	1.86	0.28	0.32	1.38	0.01	1.09	0.60	1.28
排放气体	地区	禽兽
排放气体	地区	奶牛	非奶牛	绵羊	山羊	猪	家禽	马	驴/骡	骆驼
N₂O	华北	1.846	0.794	0.093	0.093	0.227	0.007	0.330	0.188	0.330
	东北	1.096	0.913	0.057	0.057	0.266
	华东	2.065	0.846	0.113	0.113	0.175
	中南	1.710	0.805	0.106	0.106	0.157
	西南	1.884	0.691	0.064	0.064	0.159
	西北	1.447	0.545	0.074	0.074	0.195

China's provincial agricultural carbon emissions measurement and low carbonization level evaluation: Based on the application of derivative indicators and TOPSIS

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