虚拟水社会循环视域下的水资源承载力评价

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210207

Abstract

Abstract:

The shortage and uneven distribution of water resources in China are very serious. The contradiction of water utilization has changed from insufficient supply to overload of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC). Based on the concept of sustainability, this study, combined with the society cycle process of virtual water, improves the evaluation method of WRCC and analyzes the WRCC of Northwest China. The method can be helpful to maintain the integrity of water ecology and the stability of water supply. The results show that: (1) The WRCC of Shaanxi is generally good. However, it has a downward trend in the past ten years, in which the environmental pressure is the largest. The WRCC of Gansu shows a downward trend on the whole, especially in terms of environmental and social pressure. The WRCC of Ningxia has been on the verge of overloading or slight overloading, and alleviated by virtual water trade. The WRCC of Xinjiang is greatly affected by virtual water outflow and has been on the verge of overloading or slight overloading. The WRCC of Qinghai is basically in a surplus state of carrying capacity. (2) Virtual water trade has a significant influence on the comprehensive pressure index of WRCC. The evaluation method of WRCC, combined with the society cycle process of virtual water, has a practical significance. (3) The regions of different endowments of water resources and the efficiency of using water can be appropriately different in development modes. We suggest that the regions with high and low use efficiency of water take the "radical development mode" and the "radical environmental protection mode", respectively.

Key words: Northwest China, water resources, virtual water, bearing capacity index

DING Chao, HU Yong-jiang, WANG Zhen-hua, ZHAO Na, DONG Wen-xiu, WANG Li-ming. Assessment of water resources carrying capacity from the perspective of virtual water social cycle[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(2): 356-371.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Table 1

Estimation of eco-environmental water demand"

生态环境需水		计算办法	说明
城市生态需水Q_c	城市园林绿化需水	需水统计数据,来源为各省水资源公报
城市生态需水Q_c	城市人工水域需水	$Q c = A (E m - P m)$	A为水域面积（ $h m 2$ ）;E_m为平均蒸发量（mm）; $P m$ 为平均降水量（mm）
河道外生态环境需水Q_ro	植被需水	需水定额=150 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
	水土保持需水	需水定额=160 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
	人工水域（水库）需水	需水定额=304.25 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
河道内生态环境需水Q_ri	维持基本径流	$Q r = Mean Q i$	Q_i为第i年的平均径流量（亿m³）,采用蒙大拿法^[29]
河道内生态环境需水Q_ri	维持水沙平衡	$Q s = S t / C max$	S_t为多年平均输沙量（亿t）;C_max为平均多年最大月含沙量（亿t）

Table 1

Table 2

Measurement standards for water resources bearing capacity"

WRCC、 $I r$ 、 $I eco$ 、 $I pep$ 、 $I e$	<0	0~0.50	0.51~1.00	1.01~1.30	1.31~2.00	>2.00
承载力等级	F 严重超载严重恶化	E 重度超载资源匮乏	D 轻度超载资源短缺	C 濒临超载资源紧张	B 承载适宜资源协调	A 承载富余资源丰裕

Table 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Table 3

Table 4

Impact of integrating virtual water social cycle on WRCC of original entities"

省、自治区	年份	$I r entity$	$I r$	变化情况	$I e entity$	$I e$	变化情况	$I eco entity$	$I eco$	变化情况	$I pep entity$	$I pep$	变化情况	变化率/%
陕西	2007	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变	16.67
	2012	A	B	降1档	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
	2017	A	B	降1档	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
甘肃	2007	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	F	F	不变	33.33
	2012	D	E	降1档	D	D	不变	D	E	降1档	F	F	不变
	2017	D	E	降1档	D	D	不变	D	E	降1档	F	F	不变
青海	2007	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变	0
	2012	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
	2017	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
宁夏	2007	D	C	提1档	D	C	提1档	D	C	提1档	E	B	提3档	50.00
	2012	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	E	D	提1档
	2017	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	E	D	提1档
新疆	2007	B	D	降2档	B	D	降2档	B	D	降2档	A	F	降5档	83.33
	2012	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	A	A	不变
	2017	B	D	降2档	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	A	A	不变

Table 4

Fig. 7

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省、自治区	虚拟水主要流出地及流出所占比例（前4名）
省、自治区	第1	亿m³	%	第2	亿m³	%	第3	亿m³	%	第4	亿m³	%
陕西	国外	24.8	29.5	内蒙古	12.1	14.4	山东	6.0	7.1	江苏	3.3	3.9
甘肃	山东	9.3	10.9	广东	7.9	9.3	江苏	5.8	6.8	内蒙古	5.2	6.1
青海	山东	0.8	11.0	广东	0.7	10.2	甘肃	0.6	8.7	江苏	0.5	6.8
宁夏	山东	5.8	11.6	广东	5.2	10.4	甘肃	4.8	9.6	江苏	3.3	6.7
新疆	国外	71.5	17.2	山东	40.5	9.8	广东	36.3	8.7	甘肃	33.0	8.0
省、自治区	虚拟水主要流入地及流入所占比例（前4名）
省、自治区	第1	亿m³	%	第2	亿m³	%	第3	亿m³	%	第4	亿m³	%
陕西	国外	20.3	33.1	黑龙江	4.0	6.6	内蒙古	3.5	5.6	新疆	3.4	5.5
甘肃	国外	13.3	26.6	新疆	12.0	24.1	宁夏	9.3	18.7	青海	5.0	10.0
青海	国外	4.3	66.8	新疆	0.7	10.8	宁夏	0.5	8.4	甘肃	0.2	3.3
宁夏	国外	41.9	82.0	新疆	3.1	6.2	青海	1.4	2.7	甘肃	1.0	1.9
新疆	国外	178.5	75.7	陕西	6.2	2.6	黑龙江	5.5	2.4	宁夏	4.8	2.0

Assessment of water resources carrying capacity from the perspective of virtual water social cycle

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