黄河中游河龙区间径流量变化趋势及其归因

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210117

Abstract

Abstract:

Changes in the water and sediments of the Yellow River are associated with ecosystem security and quality development throughout the basin. It is of great significance to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to the reduction of runoff in order to analyze the causes of water and sediment changes in the Yellow River. Due to different research scales and research methods, the factors and influence degree of runoff variation vary greatly. Therefore, based on the same time scale, this paper uses MK trend test and Double Mass Curve method to systematically analyze the changing trend of hydrological elements in four typical basins (Huangfuchuan, Kuye River, Wuding River and Yanhe River) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2015. The Budyko water heat balance equation is used to clarify the role of climate change and human activities in the water and sediment change of the basin. The results showed that the runoffs in Huangfuchuan, Kuye River, Wuding River and Yanhe River basins all decreased significantly from 1960 to 2015 (P<0.01), and the runoffs in 1979 and 1999 experienced sudden changes without significant variations in precipitation. Compared with the base period (1960-1979), the contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction in the P2 period (1980-1999) reached 64%-76%; with the large-scale implementation of the project of returning farmland to forestland and grassland, human activities in the P3 period (2000-2015) have become the main influencing factor leading to runoff reduction, with a contribution rate of 71%-88%.

Key words: Hekou-Longmen section, runoff, climate change, human activities, Budyko equation, elasticity coefficient

NING Yi-nan, YANG Xiao-nan, SUN Wen-yi, MU Xing-min, GAO Peng, ZHAO Guang-ju, SONG Xiao-yan. The trend of runoff change and its attribution in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(1): 256-269.

Figures/Tables 13

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References 28

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年份	梯田	林地	草地	坝地
1959	3.31	15.13	3.57	0.28
1969	11.58	34.23	3.83	1.54
1979	23.05	88.18	10.45	3.95
1989	34.48	198.62	21.15	5.63
1996	48.60	253.73	24.08	6.82
2006	49.26	277.11	59.05	7.11

流域	面积/km²	均温/℃	年均降雨量/mm	年均径流量/亿m³	年均输沙量/亿t	植被措施面积/km²	工程措施面积/km²
皇甫川	3240	6.7	386.7	1.2	0.4	1268.4	52.16
窟野河	8706	7.9	389.5	4.9	0.8	934.9	133.2
无定河	30260	8.7	409.1	10.8	0.4	1565.7	180.3
延河	7725	9.5	475.9	3.0	0.4	2404.8	424.1

数据名称	数据来源	数据说明
降水数据	全国气象数据共享网（http://data.cma.gov.cn）中国地面日值数据集	区域气象站点1960—2015年日观测数据
水文数据	流域水文站实测径流量水文部门水文年鉴黄河水利委员会（YRCC）水文数据库	主要控制水文站点1960—2015年径流数据
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	Land Term Data Record（LTDR）	1981—1999年,分辨率5 km×5 km
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	MODIS MOD16A2	2000—2015年,分辨率500 m×5 km
潜在蒸散量（ET₀）	Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group （http://www.ntsg.umt.edu）	1983—1999年,分辨率8 km×8 km
潜在蒸散量（ET₀）		2000—2015年,分辨率1 km×1 km

流域	降水量		径流深		潜在蒸散量
流域	Z	S	Z	S	Z	S
皇甫川	-0.28^ns	-0.23	-5.16^**	-0.88	-1.46^*	-1.13
窟野河	-0.01^ns	-0.01	-5.96^**	-1.34	-0.36^ns	-0.27
无定河	0.01^ns	0.01	-6.52^**	-0.44	0.25^ns	0.11
延河	0.49^ns	0.32	-3.14^**	-0.30	1.60^*	1.35

流域	降水量变化		径流深变化		潜在蒸散变化		下垫面特征参数变化
流域	P1~P2时期	P1~P3时期	P1~P2时期	P1~P3时期	P1~P2时期	P1~P3时期	P1~P2时期	P1~P3时期
皇甫川	-8.4	-5.9	-37.6	-80.9	-7.0	-4.5	17.6	92.3
窟野河	-6.9	-2.5	-33.6	-72.6	-3.2	-1.2	14.7	69.0
无定河	-12.4	-2.2	-27.9	-41.9	-0.9	1.1	2.6	18.0
延河	-2.7	2.5	-8.9	-33.1	1.1	5.3	0.9	13.2

The trend of runoff change and its attribution in the middle reaches of the Yellow River

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流域	εp			εET₀			εω
流域	P1时期	P2时期	P3时期	P1时期	P2时期	P3时期	P1时期	P2时期	P3时期
皇甫川	2.23	2.52	3.68	-1.23	-1.52	-2.68	-2.32	-2.73	-4.07
窟野河	1.87	2.07	2.73	-0.87	-1.07	-1.73	-1.88	-2.20	-2.97
无定河	2.32	2.40	2.65	-1.32	-1.40	-1.65	-2.36	-2.63	-2.83
延河	2.85	2.87	3.20	-1.85	-1.87	-2.20	-2.46	-2.54	-2.85

流域	时期	森林面积/km²	草地面积/km²	植被覆盖度/%	Δveg
皇甫川	P2	151.0	2477.3	24.5	13.32
	P3	194.5	2437.2	42.1	34.62
窟野河	P2	441.6	6339.0	26.3	12.10
	P3	1054.7	5679.8	43.8	33.17
无定河	P2	925.5	15728.1	25.1	18.86
	P3	1136.1	16210.0	42.1	33.05
延河	P2	1403.9	3961.0	43.2	6.56
	P3	1549.5	4694.1	64.8	40.04

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