JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 464-472.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190302

• Resource Utilization and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial differences and scale determination of regional grain reserves

HAN Jian-jun(), ZOU Ya-li()   

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Received:2018-08-12 Revised:2018-12-26 Online:2019-03-28 Published:2019-03-28

Abstract:

Grain reserves are of great significance to the maintenance of food security and social stability. Recently, the gap between the time and space in production, supply, and demand of grain in China has been continuously increasing, which leads to the unreasonable regional grain reserves scale problems of China. Taking province as research unit, this paper analyzed the temporal evolution and regional differences of regional grain reserves by utilizing spatial exploratory analysis and dissected influencing factors of regional grain reserves scale through spatial econometric model. It provided a definite method of regional grain reserves scale for different sub-regions. The results showed that: China's grain reserves spatial correlation index is bigger than zero and increased year by year, indicating that different regional reserves scales have significant positive spatial correlation. The overall distribution of China's grain reserves shows a polarization from east to west and has undergone a significant spatial-temporal evolution with high reserves area expanding to the northeast and low reserves area transferring to the west, which caused the increasing regional differences. Regression analysis shows that the scale of regional grain reserves is closely related to grain production capacity, population size, economic development, disaster influence, transportation conditions and social influence. The regression coefficient of the spatial lag term was 0.2451, manifesting that the geographical positive spatial correlation of regional reserves scales transmits through adjacent areas. Based on this, this paper put forward the prediction range of regional grain reserves scale in 2020 by considering the spatial effect and correlative factors, which provides a new perspective for researches on regional grain reserves in China.

Key words: regional grain reserves, spatial differences, spatial econometric model, reserves scale