JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 2213-2222.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20171145

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on Carbon Emission Peak in Yangtze River Economic Zone with Steady Economic Growth: Based on Data of Global Night-time Light

CHEN Zhi-jian1, 2, LIU Yue-mei1, LIU Xiao3, KONG Fan-bin2, 4   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, China;
    2. Finance and Economics University Jiangxi, Nanchang 330013, China;
    3. Hunan Academy of Social Sciences, Changsha 410003, China;
    4. Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences, Nanchang 330077, China
  • Received:2017-10-30 Revised:2018-02-11 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41501133; Jiangxi Provincial Social Science Planning Fund Project, No. 15YJ36; China Postdoctoral Fund Project, No. 2016M592106; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province, No. 20171BAA218012; Jiangxi Postdoctoral Daily Fund Project, No. 2016RC14; Postdoctoral Fund Program in Jiangxi Province, No. 2016KY25; Jiangxi Graduate Innovative Special Fund Project, No. YC2017-S260; Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China, No. 2015YZD16; National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 14CJY032

Abstract: The time and level of carbon emission peak will affect the development space of regions and have a far-reaching impact on the coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ). This is also a problem to which we need to attach great importance when coping with climate change and regional management. Night-time light has become a typical remote sensing data used to describe the intensity of economic activities. This paper builds the measurement model of night-time light and GDP in the YREZ. According to the estimated results, the fitting precision is high and the GDP can be well explained by the night-time light by the model. This paper estimates and calibrates the GDP in the YREZ with the data of global night-time light from 1995 to 2013, and then predicts the GDP in the YREZ from 2014 to 2050 under the situation of steady economic growth. Three simulation scenarios based on decay rate of carbon intensity are designed to explore the time and level of carbon peak in the YREZ. The result shows that there is no carbon peak in Jiangsu and Jiangxi with the same drop index of carbon intensity as in the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and carbon peak in other regions will appear before 2050. Furthermore, Yunnan will reach the carbon peak in 2025 which is 6.54×107 t. In addition, in the scenario of the drop index of carbon intensity as same as in the “13th Five-Year Plan” period there is no carbon peak in Jiangsu, and the carbon peak in Anhui and Jiangxi will appear after 2040. In the same scenario, the carbon peak in Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou will appear around 2031. Furthermore, Yunnan will reach the carbon peak in 2023. In addition, the above two simulated scenarios both show that the time of carbon emissions peak in upstream area of Yangtze River is earlier than that in the midstream area. It should be pointed out that the decay rate of carbon intensity in Chongqing and Sichuan region reaches 4.30% and that in Guizhou and Yunnan region reaches 3.90%. Moreover, the carbon peak in Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan are 8.17×107, 1.36×108, 1.16×108 and 6.32×107 t, respectively. Therefore, the speed of economic growth is an important factor that affects the carbon peak. In the scenario with the goal of achieving carbon peak in 2030 in the YREZ, there are significant regional differences in the decay rate of carbon intensity. For example, the decay rate of carbon intensity in Yunnan is 2.58% and in Jiangxi is 7.53%. Therefore, regional imbalance in economic development should be taken into full consideration as well as the coordination of carbon intensity and economic growth rate when it comes to formulate carbon reduction plan. Meanwhile, emission reduction policy of achieving carbon peak by regions and by phases should be formulated, which is conducive to the target of achieving carbon peak with steady economic growth.

Key words: carbon emission peak, decay rate of carbon intensity, night-time light, optimal economic growth rate

CLC Number: 

  • X321