JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 1966-1978.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20171050

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ on Runoff in the Upper-Middle Reaches of Huaihe River Basin

WANG Sheng1,2, XU Hong-mei3, LIU Lü-liu3, WANG Yong4, SONG A-wei1   

  1. 1.Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;
    2.Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China;
    3.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    4.Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
  • Received:2017-10-11 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
  • Supported by:
    National Key R & D Program of China, No. 2016YFE0102400; Climatic Change Research Item of the China Meteorological Administration, No. CCSF201810 and CCSF201832

Abstract: The climate change in the upper-middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin was projected in scenarios of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ global warming using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Then the hydrological responses to climate change were simulated using hydrological model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), and the uncertainties of the results were estimated and compared quantitatively. This study draws following conclusions: 1) The simulation results of SWAT model are in agreement with discharge observations very well in both calibration period and validation period, so it is feasible to apply SWAT model in estimating the impacts of climate change. 2) The annual average temperature in the upper-middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin will rise by 1.1 ℃ and 1.7 ℃ compared to the baseline (1986-2005). The annual precipitation will increase by 4% and 7% in scenarios of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ global warming respectively. The ensemble mean (MME) annual runoff simulated based on SWAT will increase by 5% and 8% in scenarios of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ global warming respectively. 3) The projected monthly runoff distribution will not change, and runoff will be concentrated in midsummer and early autumn (from June to September). Global warming will increase monthly high runoff dramatically, especially 2.0 ℃ global warming. As a result, the risk of flooding would increase obviously in the future, especially by 2.0 ℃ global warming. 4) There are big uncertainties in projected precipitation and runoff, and the uncertainty comes mainly from GCMs structure, especially in the scenario of 2.0 ℃ global warming.

Key words: global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, runoff projection, SWAT, the upper-middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin

CLC Number: 

  • P339