JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 1575-1587.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20170882

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Natural Factors and Human Factors on Hydrological System Using the SWAT Model: The Zhangweinan Canal Basin Case

BAI Qi-jie1, SONG Zhi-song2, WANG Hong-rui1, DENG Cai-yun1, ZHAO Yong3   

  1. 1. College of Water Science, Beijing Normal University-Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. Power China Water Environment Governance, Shenzhen 518102, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-08-25 Revised:2018-01-27 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-20
  • Supported by:
    ; National Natural Science Foundation, No. 51479003 and 51879010; National Key R&D Program of China, No.2016YFC0401407.

Abstract: Drought is a natural hazard caused by large-scale climatic variability and cannot be prevented by local water management. Water scarcity refers to the water shortage caused by long-term unsustainable use of water resources, which can be influenced by water management policies. Clarifying drought and water scarcity is not trivial, since they often occur simultaneously. In this paper, we propose an observation-modeling framework to separate natural (drought) and human (water scarcity) effects on the hydrological system. Taking the Zhangweinan Canal Basin as study area, we carry out the preliminary comparison and difference analysis on the scenario simulation results of the SWAT model (without human influence) and observed data (with natural factors and human influence) of daily runoff series during 1976-1995. The result shows that: 1) The calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process. 2) Water scarcity resulted in the disappearance of the peak flood period in summer, even in relatively wet years. 3) Human factors are the main reason that caused the loss of runoff in Zhangweinan Canal Basin. The impact of human factors on the hydrological system was, on average, four times as high as the impact of natural factors. The proposed observation-modeling framework helps water managers in water-stressed regions quantify the relative impact of drought and water scarcity and make decisions regarding drought and water scarcity condition.

Key words: drought, human factor, natural factor, SWAT model, water scarcity

CLC Number: 

  • P333.9