基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20170502

Abstract

Abstract: Since the middle reaches of the Heihe River is an important grain base in the arid area of Northwest China, studying the agricultural structure change and its driving factors in this area has certain reference significance for farmers’ decision-making on planting and promoting the development of local agriculture. However, there are few studies on the change of agricultural structure and its driving factors at the plot scale. Based on the statistical yearbook and the survey on farmers, this paper analyzes the changes of agricultural structure in the study area during 2001-2014. The paper analyzes quantitatively the driving factors of agricultural structure change by using binary Logistic model and input-output method at two levels, household level and plot level. The results showed that: 1) The crop types in the study area tend to diversify. In 2001, the main planting crops in the study area were wheat, maize, barley and wheat-corn relay intercropping, whose number of plots accounted for 81% of the total number of plots. In 2014, the types of planting crops increased and the number of cash crops (vegetables, potatoes, rape) also increased compared with those in 2001. 2) The mainly planting crop in the study area changed from wheat (31% of the total plots) to corn (38.7% of the total plots), and intercropping changed to monoculture. In 2001, there were 58 intercropping plots (accounting for 22% of the total plots), most of which were wheat-corn relay intercropping plots (47 plots). In 2014, there were only two intercropping plots, and wheat-corn relay intercropping plots all converted to monoculture plots, of which 51% plots changed to corn plots. All rice plots turned to maize plots. 3) At the plot level, the elevation of the planting area, the irrigation quota and the water supply from headwaters have significant effects on the change of agricultural structure (significance level is 1%). The impact of groundwater on agricultural structure change is also significant (significance level is 5%). 4) As rational economic men, the most important factor affecting the planting behaviors of farmers is income. Policy factors (at 5% of significance level), agricultural labors and the area of cultivated land per capita also have effects.

Key words: change in agricultural structure, land plot, Logistic model, Zhangye City

CLC Number:

F327

XIAO Xing-yuan, HU Min-yue, LI Xiu-bin, TAN Ming-hong, ZHAO Xiang-wei, ZHENG Lu-qian. Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(3): 386-397.

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Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City

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