JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 684-695.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170392

• Resource Research Method • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Risk Assessment and Division Model for Regional Drought Disaster Based on Cloud Model and Bootstrap Method

WU Cheng-guo1a,1b, BAI Lu1a,1b, BAI Xia2, JIN Ju-liang1a,1b, JIANG Shang-ming3   

  1. 1.a. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, b. Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
    2. School of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Bengbu College, Bengbu 233030, China;
    3. Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission, MWR, Bengbu 230088, China
  • Received:2017-04-27 Revised:2017-11-07 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-10
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No. 2017YFC1502405;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 51579059, 51579060 and 51709071;Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province, No. 2017GSF20101;Natural Science Research Project of Universities in Anhui Province, No. 113052015KJ04.

Abstract: Regional drought disaster risk assessment and division is a basic work for scientifically revealing the element mutual interaction and evolution mechanism of drought disaster risk system and can provide reasonable decision-making basis for developing drought disaster risk prevention and control measures and realizing drought disaster risk management. In order to effectively describe the uncertainties, including randomness, fuzziness and unascertained characteristics of regional drought disaster risk system, firstly, the Bootstrap sample set of regional drought disaster risk system was established using the random sampling method. Then, after fuzzily processing the traditional drought disaster grade standard using the Cloud Theory, the forward and normal cloud algorithm was proposed for interval estimation analysis of the Bootstrap sample set. Besides, the natural breaks classification method in ArcGIS was used to analyze the regional drought disaster risk distribution. Finally, the risk assessment and division model for regional drought disaster based on Cloud Model and Bootstrap Method (CMBM) was proposed in this paper. The results of applying the model in Anhui Province indicate that: 1) The Cloud Model theory can describe the uncertainties of drought disaster system better, and the interval assessing results of drought disaster risk can further reveal the nature of risk. 2) The overall risk probability of drought disaster in Huaibei Plain (Fuyan, Suzhou, Bozhou and Chuzhou), Jianghuai Hilly Region (Lu’an) and southeast area of Anhui Province (Huangshan, Chizhou) is relatively high in the future, so more attention should be paid in these areas to prevent drought disaster. This study proposed a scientific and effective drought disaster risk assessment and division model based on Cloud Model and Bootstrap Method, and the model can further decrease the influence of the uncertainties of drought disaster risk system on assessment results. The paper has a great theoretical significance in guiding regional drought disaster risk assessment and division.

Key words: Anhui Province, Bootstrap Method, drought disaster risk assessment, forward and normal cloud algorithm, risk rate

CLC Number: 

  • S423