1901—2014年黄土高原区域气候变化时空分布特征

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20170186

Abstract

Abstract: Climate change has a significant influence on the environment and economy in the Loess Plateau (LP) region. Studying the spatio-temporal trends of climate change at the fine scale would be conductive to develop flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies against the climate change issues in this region. This study downscaled CRU climate data from 1901 to 2014 to spatial resolution of 1 km using the Delta downscaling method and evaluated the monthly climate change in this region. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the climate in this region were analyzed with the anomalies method, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen’s slope estimation method. The results are as following: 1) The Delta downscaling method performs well in generating monthly precipitation and temperature data with 1 km spatial resolution. Among the four interpolation methods, the bilinear interpolation is the best method for the downscaling process. 2) During 1901-2014, the annual precipitation had no significant trend, while the annual average temperature presented a significant increasing trend with 0.1 ℃/10 a. Compared with the average level of the climate during 1961-1990, the climate in 1960s was cold and wet, while it was dry and warm after 1980. The annual precipitation in the west of the LP region (accounting for 3.05% of the area) showed a significant increasing trend during 1901-2014, ranging from 0.24 mm/10 a to 3.52 mm/10 a. The annual average temperature in region other than the west of the LP region (accounting for 91.30% of the area) showed a significantly increasing trend ranging from 0.02 ℃/10 a to 0.17 ℃/10 a during 1901-2014, and the magnitudes of the trend increased from southwest to northeast. 3) During 1981-2010, the climate in the west of the LP region (accounting for 92.02% of the area) was drier and warmer than it was during 1961-1990, while in the rest region (accounting for 7.98% of the area) it became wetter and warmer. The annual precipitation in Minhe and region south to Minhe (accounting for 0.05% area) presented a significantly increasing trend during 1981-2010, ranging from17.25 mm/10 a to 27.93 mm/10 a. The annual average temperature in region other than the west of the LP region (accounting for 87.61% of the area) had a significantly increasing trend during 1981-2010, ranging from 0.23 ℃/10 a to 0.71 ℃/10 a. These results could provide a scientific basis for developing strategies addressing global climate change issues in the LP region.

Key words: climate change, Delta downscaling method, Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimation method, the Loess Plateau

CLC Number:

P467

REN Jing-yu, PENG Shou-zhang, CAO Yang, HUO Xiao-ying, CHEN Yun-ming. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2014[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(4): 621-633.

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Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2014

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