JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 515-525.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170040

• Resource Research Method • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Simulation of Cropland Abandonment Based on Multi-agent System and Land Transformation Model: A Case Study of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province

SONG Shi-xiong, LIANG Xiao-ying, CHEN Hai, MAO Nan-zhao   

  1. Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
  • Received:2017-01-15 Revised:2017-06-20 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41671086 and 41271103.

Abstract: The integration of different models has been one of the effective ways to simulate LUCC. In this paper, several steps were designed to reveal the interactive mechanism between macroscopic pattern of cropland abandonment and microcosmic behaviors of agents. Firstly, a multi-agent decision-making model under bounded rationality was constructed which took the interactions among different agents into consideration. Secondly, the effectiveness of Land Transformation Model (LTM) in simulating the macroscopic pattern of cropland abandonment in the study area was tested through the training on SNNS platform and the comparison with historical data. Thirdly, Cropland Abandonment Simulation Model (CASM) was formed by integrating multi-agent system (MAS) and LTM, and the rationality and feasibility of the CASM was explored. The result showed that the percent correct metric (PCM) of CASM was 71%, which was 3% higher than the PCM of LTM. This result indicated that CASM can not only simulate and analyze the distribution of spatial pattern of cropland abandonment in Mizhi County, but also effectively reveal the micro driving mechanism of cropland abandonment. Finally, several advices of future research were given to improve the explanatory ability of CASM, e.g., the effect of policy, market and the decisions of different levels of agents (such as the rural cooperation and government) on the cropland abandonment should be considered.

Key words: artificial neural network, cropland abandonment simulation model, land transformation model, multi-agent system

CLC Number: 

  • F301.21