JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1469-1481.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160835

• Resource Ecology • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Scenarios Simulation of the Spatial Stress on Wetlands by Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Huailai County

ZHAO Xuea, b, HUANG Qing-xua, c, HE Chun-yanga, c   

  1. a. Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing 100875, China;
    b. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China;
    c. School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2016-08-03 Revised:2016-09-22 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501092

Abstract: Scenario simulation has shown prominent advantages in complex human-environment systems, for it considers the impacts of unexpected disturbance and focuses on long-term plans. The 2022 Beijing & Zhangjiakou Winter Olympics might accelerate economic development and urban expansion in Huailai, which would lead to a significant impact on the spatial stress of wetlands in this area. This paper adopted the scenario simulation method as well as LUSD-urban (Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban) model and a spatial stress model to simulate the spatial stress on wetlands by urban expansion in Huailai in 2030. We designed three scenarios, i.e., the business-as-usual scenario, the urban planning scenario and the Winter Olympic scenario, and compared the results under the three scenarios. The results showed that the spatial stress on wetlands by urban expansion has increased by 10.03%, from 0.399 in 2000 to 0.439 in 2013. Meanwhile, the proportion of land with a spatial stress greater than 0.5 increased from 6.73% to 17.42%. The spatial stress on wetlands during 2013-2030 will increase by 0.002-0.005 under the three scenarios. The Winter Olympic scenario will witness the largest increase in spatial stress on wetlands. The hotspot area of spatial stress on wetlands will be 83.74 km2 under the Winter Olympic scenario, 1.44 times as large as the common hotspot area under the three scenarios. The non-urban land in the towns of Xinbao’an, Tumu and Shacheng will face high spatial stress. Thus, the future urban planning of Huailai County should take full account of the importance of wetland ecosystems, so as to protect the scarce wetland resources, improve the water quality in the Guanting Reservoir and promote economic development on the basis of an effective environmental protection.

Key words: Huailai, LUSD-urban model, scenario simulation, urban expansion, wetland spatial stress model, Winter Olympics

CLC Number: 

  • X37