JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1627-1638.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160824

• Resource Research Method • Previous Articles    

Forecasting the Promotion Potential of Grain Yield per Unit in Mid-long Term with a Decay Model:A Case Study in Henan Province

ZHU Jia-wei, ZHOU Lin-lin, XIE Xiao-tong   

  1. College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
  • Received:2016-08-01 Revised:2016-10-08 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20
  • Supported by:
    Geological Survey Projects of China Geological Survey, No; 12120113007300

Abstract: The increase of grain output mainly depends on the improvement of grain per unit yield. To scientifically determine grain production capacity in the future and make food production strategy, it has great significance to accurately forecast the grain yield per unit. At present, the prediction models based on grain yield per unit could not reflect the limited growth and the slowing down of growth rate well. Therefore, a new prediction method of grain yield per unit based on the decaying of the promotion potential is proposed and its application in Henan Province is carried out in this paper. With this method, the promotion potential of grain yield per unit can be calculated with the average potential yield and the actual yield in past years. Due to the year-by-year decrease of the promotion potential of yield per unit, a model of promotion potential for grain yield can be established and the grain yield can be predicted with an exponential decay function. The results are as follows: 1) There is a linear decrease of the logarithm of the promotion potential of grain yield per unit during 1978-2015, and an exponential regression model can be established. 2) The regression model, Vq-Vt=e-0.009 5t+9.464 7, is significant at the confidence level of 0.01. 3) The model has a clear theoretical meaning which shows the finite and the attenuation of the yield potential, that is, the limitation to the yield per unit caused by the promotion potential. 4) To test the model’s accuracy, the grain yields per unit in Henan during 1978-2000 are taken as samples to forecast the grain yields during 2001-2015, and the actual grain yields during 2001-2015 are used to test the predicated results. The result shows the average absolute error of predication is 129.15 kg/hm2, which is 0.17-0.82 times of the errors of other methods. So it is more precise. Furthermore, the error of this method is more stable than errors of other models, so this new method is more suitable to forecast grain yield per unit in mid-long term. 5) The forecasted grain yields per unit in 2015, 2020, 2030 in Henan are 6 375, 6 765 and 7 155 kg/hm2, respectively, and the annual increase is 85.20-74.55 kg/hm2 during 2016-2030 with decreasing increment rate.

Key words: food security, grain yield per unit, Henan Province, promotion potential of grain yield per unit, regression analysis

CLC Number: 

  • F307.11