JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 864-876.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160555

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China

WANG Xiao-jun, WU Jin-xue, JIANG He-ping   

  1. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-05-30 Revised:2016-10-10 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Fund, No.14ZDAZ0241National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71273263; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2016M590164

Abstract: Objectively assessing rural eco-environmental quality and predicting its development trend have important theoretical and practical significance for food security, sustainable development of rural economy, and harmonious relationship between economic growth and ecological environment. Based on the framework of PSR model, the paper constructed an evaluating index system to assess the dynamic changes of rural eco-environment during 2000-2015. And the GM grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of rural eco-environment during the 13rd Five-Year Plan period. The results showed: 1) The quality of rural eco-environment had been falling in the past 15 years. The comprehensive evaluated score of rural eco-environment decreased from 0.669 in 2000 to 0.387 in 2015. The pollutions emission in rural areas was increasing, but the input to environmental protection was low. The continuing growth of Chinese rural economy was at the cost of ecological and environmental deterioration. 2) According to the past growth mode of rural economics, rural eco-environmental quality will continue deteriorating during 2016-2020, far from the expectation of green development during the 13rd Five-Year Plan. We need to change the mode of rural production as soon as possible in order to ease the pressure on rural soil and water imposed by fertilizers and pesticides, and enhance investment in rural environmental protection as much as possible.

Key words: 13th Five-Year Plan, GM model, PSR model, quality of rural eco-environment

CLC Number: 

  • X171