JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 680-691.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160459

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatio-temporal Change of Surface Air Temperature in Anhui Province in the Context of Global Warming from 1960 to 2014

LIU Yong-ting1, 2, XU Guang-lai1, 2, YIN Zhou-xiang1, 2, HU Chen-qi1, 2, WANG Yuan1, LIAO Fu-qiang3   

  1. 1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241003, China;
    2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241003, China;
    3. School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
  • Received:2016-05-03 Revised:2016-06-30 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301029 and 41301011

Abstract:

Based on monthly temperature data from 80 stations in Anhui Province, the long term daily temperature were analyzed during 1960-2014. The characteristics of temperature change were analyzed by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, wavelet transforms and other mathematic statistic methods. Important results were obtained as follows: 1) There was a significant climate warming trend in Anhui Province during recent 55 years (0.19 ℃/10 a, P = 0.005). Significant increase trends were also found in the spring, autumn and winter temperature. The spring average temperature had the largest and most obvious trend of increase (0.29 ℃/10 a, P < 0.001). The trend of average summer temperature was not obvious (0.01 ℃/10 a, P = 0.069). The annual average temperature showed big fluctuation in 1990s. 2) An abrupt change of the temperature wavelike rising tendency in 1996 was detected by M-K test. The temperature increased by 0.82 ℃ after the change point. The annual average temperature had a great change and the warming trend was very significant. There were significant change points of average spring temperature, autumn temperature and winter temperature in 1999, 1998 and 1986, respectively. And there were no significant change point of average summer temperature. 3) The oscillating periods of average temperature in the past 55 years was complex, being a nested structure of multiple time scales. The wavelet analysis showed that there were two periods of 5-8 years and 10-15 years for the oscillation of temperature in Anhui Province. After the analysis of wavelet variance plots, it was found that main cycles of annual mean temperature were 6 years and 11 years. 4) Hurst indexes of annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature were all greater than 0.5. It indicated that there will be obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future (Hurst index was 0.891), which means that there is tendency of the climate change in Anhui Province during recent 55 years. The Hurst index was higher in spring and winter, and the warming rate in winter was higher than that in summer and autumn. It could be deduced that the increase of temperature in spring and winter was the main contributor to the increase of annual average temperature. The result of this paper can be used as a reference for further analysis of climate change as well as the impacts of climate change and the responses of water resources to climate change in Anhui Province.

Key words: Anhui Province, climate warming, temperature variation

CLC Number: 

  • P423