JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 632-641.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160455

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Runoff Spatial Responses to Land Use Change in Xitiaoxi River Basin

WANG Qiang, XU You-peng, GAO Bin, WANG Yue-feng, XU Yu, WU Lei   

  1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2016-04-29 Revised:2016-12-20 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
  • Supported by:

    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016 YFC0401502; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41371046 and 51309076; Water Conservancy Science and Technology Foundation of Jiangsu Province, No.2015003; The Commonwealth and Specialized Programs for Scientific Research, Ministry of Water Resources of China, No.201501041; The Graduate Research and Innovation Projects in Jiangsu Province, No.KYLX16_0042


This study aims to evaluate the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC), especially rapid urbanization, on annual runoff change in Taihu Basin, where monsoonal flood is prone to happen. Xitiaoxi River Basin, one of the main sub-basins of Taihu Lake Basin, was chosen as study area to study the spatial variation of runoff under different land use conditions. A new spatial analysis method called geographically weighted regression model (GWR) was employed to quantitatively evaluate the impact of LUCC on runoff variation. The monthly runoff process was generated by SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The results showed that: 1) All R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ENS were above 0.85, and the relative errors |Re| were all less than 15% in the calibration and validation period, suggesting SWAT model perform well. 2) The runoff change was spatially nonstationary, and was significantly correlated with the mostly changed type of land use in the sub-basin, among which the influence of urban land-use had the greatest influence, followed by the forest-grass land and cultivated land. Urban land-use expansion could increase local regional runoff depth by 37.6%-45.2%, while the forest-grass land and cultivated land shrinking could increase local regional runoff depth by 16%-26.2% and 9.2%-15.4% respectively. 3) Spatially, the influence of urban land-use change on runoff depth increased gradually from upstream to downstream in the basin. On the contrary, the impacts of the forest-grass land and cultivated land on runoff process presented decline trend from upstream to downstream. 4) Compared with single-factor GWR model, the multifactorial GWR model had better prediction accuracy and was more suitable to analyze the spatial relationship between runoff and LUCC.

Key words: GWR model, land use/cover change, runoff spatially response, SWAT model, Xitiaoxi River Basin

CLC Number: 

  • P333