JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 484-493.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160335

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on DPSIRM

GUO Qian, WANG Jia-yang, ZHANG Bi   

  1. College of Resource and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
  • Received:2016-04-01 Revised:2016-07-08 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 51209024; National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 13BGL009; Social Science Research Program of Sichuan Province, No. SC15TJ019; Education Department Project of Sichuan Province, No. 15ZA0192 and 16ZA0207.

Abstract: By inherent mechanism study of water resource system, an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established which takes the influences including resource, ecology, environment, economy and society into consideration. The paper gives the clear definition of each subsystem, which reflects the scientific relationship between each factor within the system. On that basis, coupling SA-PP model is established, and the parameters of projection pursuit are optimized by simulated annealing. The model is used to evaluate the water resource carrying capacity of Yunnan Province from 2003 to 2012, and the projection eigenvalues are analyzed. The study shows that, from 2003 to 2012, the water resources carrying capacity of Yunnan Province was increasing steadily. Under the current situation of economic and social development, water resource carrying capacity can carry the social economic development. Before 2006, the resource carrying capacity had an increasingly enlarged tendency, showing great potential of growth. After 2006, the fluctuation of water resources carrying capacity increased. The growth of water resource carrying capacity was close to zero in 2009 and 2011. The best projection direction reflects the impact degree of each index on water resource carrying capacity, the greater the value, the greater the impact of the corresponding evaluation index on the water resources carrying capacity. The main indexes affecting the water resource carrying capacity are the domestic sewage emissions, the “three wastes” control investment, per capital GDP, the water consumption per unit GDP and the forest coverage. The pressure subsystem accounts for 26.15% of water resource carrying capacity, being the most important factor. This model is practical, which can provide scientific basis for the planning and management of regional water resource.

Key words: DPSIRM model, projection pursuit, simulated annealing, water resource carrying capacity

CLC Number: 

  • TV213.4