JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 1858-1870.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20151333

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Early-warning of Urban Vulnerability in Tangshan CityBased on Variable Weight Model

ZHANG Lu-lu, ZHENG Xin-qi, ZHANG Chun-xiao, LÜ Yong-qiang   

  1. School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2015-12-02 Revised:2016-04-15 Online:2016-11-20 Published:2016-11-20
  • Supported by:
    International S & T Cooperation Program of China, No.2015DFA01370

Abstract: At present, cities in China face highly and rapidly increasing exposure to risks of resource, environment, society and economy, calling for effective countermeasures to solve the problem. Urban vulnerability reflects the ability of city system to resist the disturbances from resources, ecological environment, economic and social development, and other internal and external factors. When the ability to resist disturbance is lower than a certain threshold value, the city will be vulnerable. Urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning is an important content of urban vulnerability research. The paper selected Tangshan City as the study region, and constructed an urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning index system by employing “Ecology-Environment-Economy-Society” (EEES) framework. It introduced the variable weight to estimate the early-warning level of urban vulnerability of Tangshan City from 2000 to 2014. And the Grey System GM (1,1) forecast model was used to predict the urban vulnerability trend of the city from 2015 to 2020. The results indicated that the variable weight model could meet needs of urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning. The level of urban vulnerability showed an upward trend in Tangshan City during the past 15 years, the index growing from 0.449 to 0.716, the warning degree descending from “serious alert” to “light alert”, and the indicator lamp turning from “orange light” to “blue light”. From 2015 to 2020, the urban vulnerability warning level is predicated to turn from the “light alarm” to “no alert”, and the lamp will turn from “blue light” into “green light”. However, the urban vulnerability situation is still not optimistic. We still need to take precautionary measures to prevent vulnerability risk. These findings could provide scientific basis for the urban vulnerability assessment, and provide policy support for the improvement of the urban vulnerability of Tangshan.

Key words: 1) model, early-warning, GM(1, Tangshan City, urban vulnerability, variable weight model

CLC Number: 

  • F299.27