JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 275-286.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20150048

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Study on Limit and Evolutionary Trend of Pollution Effect in Process of Urbanization Based on Marginal Model:An Empirical Study of Anhui Province

ZHANG Le-qin   

  1. Resource Environment and Tourism Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China
  • Received:2015-01-15 Online:2016-02-25 Published:2016-02-25
  • Supported by:
    Key Project of Provincial Natural Science Research for Colleges and Universities of Department of Education, Anhui Province, No.KJ2014A175; Social Science Planning Project of Anhui Province, No.AHSKY2014D53

Abstract: Exploring the limits of marginal pollution effect of urbanization has important significance in healthy and sustainable development of urbanization. Taking Anhui Province as an example, eight indicators are selected with entropy weight assignment method for evaluating comprehensive pollution indices. LMDI decomposition model is adopted to measure the pollution effect caused by urbanization. Based on the marginal theory in economics, the change rate model of marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization is established. Through the estimation of optimal goodness-of-fit curve and discrimination method of inflection point deri-vation, the limit and evolutionary trend of marginal pollution effect in the process of urbanization are measured. The results show that: 1) the comprehensive pollution index rose from 0.153 0 in 2000 to 0.645 3 in 2012, while the marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization increased from 0.006 3 in 2001 to 0.012 5 in 2012, and both show growing trends; 2) by 2020, the cumulative marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization will reach 0.379; 3) the change rate curve of marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization shows a positive N-shaped, of which the first and the second extreme points appeare in 2004-2005 and 2013 respectively. At present, the marginal pollution effect caused by urbanization is in the rising channel right to the second extreme point. Based on urban development theory, mechanism analysis is conducted on the research results. Meanwhile, four aspects of policy suggestions are proposed, such as relying on scientific and technological innovation to realize the transition of urbanization pattern from factor driving to innovation driving.

CLC Number: 

  • X321