JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 491-501.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.03.012

• Resource Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatio-temporal Pattern and Its Driving Factors of Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province

ZHOU Li-qing1,2, CHENG Ye-qing3   

  1. 1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun, Jilin 130012, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. College of Geography and Tourism, Hainan Normal University, Haikou 571158, China
  • Received:2014-07-15 Revised:2014-11-09 Published:2015-03-23

Abstract:

As one of the most vital grain production areas in China, Heilongjiang Province plays an important role in guaranteeing Chinese's grain security. This paper examines the spatio-temporal pattern and driving factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province based on the models of ESDA, K-Means Cluster and multi-regression, and the aim is to illuminate the current situation of grain production and provide the scientific basis for promoting the regional ability of guaranteeing national grain security and sustainable development of agriculture inHeilongjiang Province. The results show that the scale of grain production in Heilongjiang Province keeps increasing, and both the seeding area and proportion of soybean experience a wave of “ascent-descent”, while the seeding areas and proportions of corn and rice expand constantly, and they both exceed soybean in 2009 and 2011, respectively. By the end of 2012, the planted acreage of soybean, corn and rice accounted for 17.73%, 45.12% and 26% of the total grain acreages, respectively. Moreover, corn and rice has become the main grain crops in Heilongjiang Province, while the importance of soybean decreased in some way. In addition, the grain production in Heilongjiang Province has certain characteristics of spatial correlation. Of which, the soybean has significant spatial agglomeration, and its Moran's I is 0.6011. Corn takes the second place and shows a weakening trend after 2004, for its Moran's I decreased from 0.6135 in 2004 to 0.48 in 2012. The spatial gathering of rice is the least evident but it began to increase since 2009, and its Moran's I was 0.3709 in 2012. The results also show that the regional types of grain production have a significant spatio-temporal variation and the trend of specialization and regionalization is enhanced. The northern Songnen Plain, Da Hinggan and Xiao Hinggan mountains, as well as the north of Sanjiang Plain have respectively formed the typical areas of soybean, corn and rice. Moreover, multi-regression analysis demonstrates that the agricultural investment, economic environment, technical level and market factor are the main factors that influence the structure and the spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Heilongjiang Province.

Key words: grain production, spatial autocorrelation, multi-regression models, Heilongjiang Province

CLC Number: 

  • F307.11