JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 152-163.

### Impact Limit of Urbanization Evolution on Carbon Emission in Anhui Province Based on Combined Model

ZHANG Le-qin

1. Resource Environment and Tourism Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China
• Received:2013-12-30 Revised:2014-05-04 Online:2015-01-20 Published:2015-01-20

Abstract: To explore the limit time of minimum impact of urbanization evolution on carbon emission is of important guiding significance to develop the planning and policies of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2011 was estimated from two aspects, i.e., carbon source and carbon sink. Kaya identities and factorization model were used to investigate the quantity of carbon emission generated by urbanization development. Referring to economic marginal theories and derivation method, the change rate model of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was established to estimate the change rate of marginal carbon emission in research time- series. In assistance of Excel software, a scatter plot was developed with trend line added to describe the changing trend in the change rate of marginal carbon emission. A quadratic function for extreme method was applied to explore the impact limit time of urbanization evolution on carbon emission. The results showed that: 1) the carbon emission of Anhui Province was increased from 21.82 million tons in 1995 to 101.2 million tons in 2011 with annual average amplification of 10.06%; 2) in the research time-series, total carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was 36.03 million tons with annual average of 2.25 million tons and greater inter- annual change; 3) the fitting curve of change rate of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was neither U-shaped pattern nor inverted U-shaped pattern with insignificant time-dimension dependency; and 4) the impact of urbanization development on carbon emission in Anhui Province showed a power function relationship with significant incremental effect of urbanization evolution. Based on the research results, policy recommendations were put forward from the following aspects, i.e., the ideas of innovative development to lead low-carbon urbanization; the optimization of energy structure to support low-carbon urbanization; the development of systems to guarantee low-carbon urbanization; the connotation construction to promote low-carbon urbanization and so on. It can not only provide a decision-making reference for ecological construction and the implementation of sustainable development strategies in Anhui Province, but also offer references for similar studies at provincial scale.

CLC Number:

• X321