JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 1145-1158.

• Resources Economics •

### National Coal Emergency Reserve Scale Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis from Welfare Economic Perspective

LIU Man-zhi1,2, QU Chuan-zhi1, ZHOU Mei-hua1, XIE Feng-min1

1. 1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;
2. Environmental Energy Tech Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley CA 94720, USA
• Received:2013-08-06 Revised:2013-12-15 Online:2014-07-20 Published:2014-07-20

Abstract: Decision-making of optimal scale of coal emergency reserve is the core problem in coal emergency reserve management. From the perspective of welfare economy, using costbenefit analysis method and combining the characteristics of coal reserves products, we built the national coal emergency reserve scale model. Through the parameter estimation, numerical simulation, the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve was estimated under the baseline scenario and its main influencing factors were excavated by sensitivity analysis. The results show that: the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve is the scale when the national coal emergency reserve marginal revenue equals to its marginal cost; under baseline scenario the optimal reserve scale is 16 days of coal consumption amount which is equivalent to the 4%-5% of annual total coal consumption through parameter estimations of the price elasticity of coal demand, coal reserve cost, coal price and coal supply interruption scale by using numerical simulation; the price elasticity of coal demand and coal supply interruption scale are the two main factors which influence the optimal reserve scale by sensitivity analysis, if the price elasticity of coal demand transfers from -0.12 to -0.1, -0.13, -0.15, the optimal coal emergency reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 27 days, 12 days and 7 days, and if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions transfers from 14 days to 20 days, 12 days and 7 days, the optimal reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 44 days, 9 days and 1 day. That if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions is 7 days and below, the amount of national coal emergency reserves is built equaling to 1 day amount of the coal consumption. The conclusions of the study can provide a theoretical basis and data support for the decision-making of national coal emergency reserve scale.

CLC Number:

• F426.21