JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1065-1075.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.014

• Resources Research Methods • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of Regional Soil Moisture Forecasting Model in Northeast China

SUN Qian-qian1, LIU Jing-miao2, LIANG Hong3   

  1. 1. Video and Audio Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China;
    3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2013-05-07 Revised:2013-07-02 Published:2014-06-24

Abstract:

The spatial-temporal variations of soil moisture in Northeast China are analyzed by using the observation data from 1981 to 2010 with cluster analysis statistic test (CAST). The regional soil moisture forecasting model is also established. The results show that the soil moisture shows an upward trend in central part and a downward trend in other parts in recent 30 years, but the western part shows a larger decline, the southern part presents a smaller decline. The significant impact factors of soil moisture are different in different parts of the region. But the correlation is evident when compared with precipitation and soil moisture in ten days before. The forecast equations of different parts are established with the data from 1981 to 2007 and checked with the data from 2008 to 2010. The average relative errors are all less than 13.67%. The predicted value is closed to the observation value, so the real situations of soil moisture can be showed by this predicted value.

Key words: soil moisture, forecasting model, Northeast China, cluster analysis statistic test

CLC Number: 

  • S152.7