淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.06.013

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking 172 counties of the Huaihe River Basin as research unit, using each county's grain and fertilizer data in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and water environment data in 2010, and based on ESDA model, gravity model, regression analysis model and GIS spatial technology method, this article measures degree of spatial concentration and the center of gravity of the watershed grain production and fertilizer consumption respectively, and on this basis, it further analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic variation and coupled relationship of the basin food production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on the basin water environment. The results show that: 1) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of grain production and fertilizer consumption show significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. The "H-H" type areas are mainly distributed in the Northern Jiangsu Plain and the North of Anhui Plain at downstream of the basin. The "L-L" type areas are mainly distributed in the Funiu Mountain, Tongbai Mountain, and Yimeng Mountain at upstream of the basin. 2) The center of gravity analysis shows that the center of gravity of food production and fertilizer consumption moved gradually from the northeast to the southwest of the basin in the past 20 years, moving 29.51 km and 34.97 km respectively. Both distances of the center presents approximately the "W-shaped" pattern, the hovering characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing, further reducing and then increasing. 3) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of the basin grain production and fertilizer consumption are highly coupled in spatial location, presenting the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of increase and decrease collaboration. Both the evolution trajectory of the centers has the same direction, and the characteristics of spatial coupling are significant. 4) Regression analysis shows that fertilizer consumption is the main contribution factor and pollution source of the basin's environmental pollution, also indicates that the environmental cost in the basin food production process is comparatively large, showing the external diseconomies effect.

Key words: fertilizer consumption, Huaihe River Basin, water environment, food production

CLC Number:

S143

ZHOU Lianga, XU Jian-gangb, CAI Bei-ming, JIANG Jin-linga, SUN Dong-qia. The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2014, 29(6): 1053-1064.

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The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin

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